ABIO10 PGTW 291230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/291230Z-291800ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.2S
76.0E, APPROXIMATELY 237 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LLCC WITH
FLARING CONVECTION AND ELEVATED WINDS BEGINNING TO WRAP ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY INTO THE SYSTEM. 99S IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM (29-30 C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WHILE ALSO
BEING PLACED WITHIN A POCKET OF LIGHTER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15
KNOTS) OPPOSED TO THE SURROUNDING AREA (25-30 KNOTS). A FACTOR THAT CAN
NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE SYSTEM IS A LARGE DRY AIR MASS TO THE WEST THAT
WILL BE IN THE DIRECT PATH OF 99S AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRANSIT AND SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).//
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发表于 2026-3-29 19:33
