Tropical Low 29U
Tropical low 29U has a Moderate chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea later next week.
Tropical low 29U may form in the Coral Sea over the weekend or early next week.
29U has a Low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone from Tuesday onwards, increasing to a Moderate chance during Thursday and Friday as environmental conditions improve.
There is large uncertainty in its movement in the longer term, with a possibility of 29U drifting closer to the coast between Lockhart River and Mackay later in the week, before potentially moving over land next weekend.
People in these areas should monitor forecasts for updates.
Tropical Low 29U
Tropical low 29U has a Moderate chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea later this week.
Tropical low 29U may form in the Coral Sea over the coming days.
29U has a Low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone from Tuesday onwards, increasing to a Moderate chance during Thursday and Friday as environmental conditions improve.
29U is expected to move towards the west later this week, and may move over the Queensland coast between Lockhart River and Mackay. Next weekend, 29U may move west through the Gulf of Carpentaria or over land through northern Queensland or the Northern Territory.
People in these areas should monitor forecasts for updates.
ABPW10 PGTW 020000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/020000Z-020600ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.9S
152.5E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION
OVER A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), CONSISTENT
WITH THE 011811Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE
AREA INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOT), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30
C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 91P WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH EXPECTED
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTH PACIFIC
CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (SS 23P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 28.8S
176.3E, APPROXIMATELY 467 NM SOUTH OF TONGA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING
BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 011749Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), PARTIALLY
OBSCURED BY UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER, WITH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURES SHEARED SOUTHWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH
COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (25-26C), HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(30+KNOTS), AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUBTROPICAL STORM 23P WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD WITH
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR REGAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 42 TO 48 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 984 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
NNNN
Tropical Low 29U
Moderate chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea later this week.
Tropical low 29U has formed in the central parts of the Coral Sea.
29U has a Low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone from Wednesday onwards, increasing to a Moderate chance during Thursday, Friday and Saturday as environmental conditions improve.
29U is expected to move towards the southwest later this week, and may move over the Queensland coast between Cairns and Mackay.
This weekend 29U is likely to be weakening, most likely over land, and the tropical cyclone risk reduces Very Low by next Monday.
People in these areas should monitor forecasts for updates.
ABPW10 PGTW 030230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/030230Z-030600ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.2S 136.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 136.8E, APPROXIMATELY 138 NM
WEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
(MSI) REVEALS STRONG FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITHIN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THIS AREA IS FAVORABLE, WITH STRONG
WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29-30 C), AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS). GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON A QUASI-STATIONARY
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWEST FURTHER INTO
AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.2S 152.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 107.0E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED
WITHIN A TROUGH, FEATURING DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE CENTER. A PARTIAL 022230Z ASCAT (METOP-B) PASS REVEALS STRONG
WINDS (20 TO 25KTS) ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROF AND 20-25
KTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, AND A STEADILY DECREASING RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICT FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO
20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (29 TO 30 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE DEPICTING STEADY
DEVELOPMENT OF 91P AND A GENERAL WEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN
WTPS21 PGTW 031930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9S 150.8E TO 15.5S 147.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 031800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0S 150.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.4S 151.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 150.7E, APPROXIMATELY 144 NM
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTIVE
BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C).
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 91P TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST OF AUSTRALIA
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
041930Z.//
NNNN
ABPW10 PGTW 031930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/031930Z-040600ZMAR2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031921ZMAR2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.4S 151.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 150.7E, APPROXIMATELY 144 NM
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTIVE
BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 91P TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST
OF AUSTRALIA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 031930)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.4S 137.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 137.1E, APPROXIMATELY 177 NM
SOUTH OF GROVE AIRPORT. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
SCATTERED BURSTS CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR EQUATORWARD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS),
WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND TERRAIN INTERACTION.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE HESITANT ON THE FORMATION OF 92P, SHOWING THE
CIRCULATION TRACKING WESTWARD AND STAYING OVER LAND OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//
NNNN
发表于 2026-2-28 08:14
发表于 2026-2-28 17:50
