LOW - 萨摩亚以东94P - 13.9S 166.1W

大水台6

sh942026 INVEST 20260124 1200 -13.0 -169.0 P DB 15 0

红豆棒冰冰

数值预报会迅速南下，估计有可能拿个FMS编号，想命名或者拿到JTWC正式编号就很难了

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 250200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/250200Z-250600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.9S
166.1W, APPROXIMATELY 262 NM EAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS AN AREA DISORGANIZED CONVECTION,
EMBEDDED WITHIN AND ALONG THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). A
242049Z  ASCAT PASS REVEALS THE AREA IN QUESTION HAS YET TO CLOSE OFF
INTO A DISCRETE CIRCULATION, BUT REMAINS MORE OF A WAVE FEATURE,
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL
MODELS BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE CONFIDENT IN DEPICTING 94P DEVELOPING
INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION CENTER AND SEPARATING FROM THE SPCZ AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. ENSEMBLE MODELS (BOTH GEFS AND ECENS)
INDICATE STRONG DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23
TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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JTWC修正了图像

红豆棒冰冰

ABPW10 PGTW 250600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/250600Z-260600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.9S 166.1W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 164.2W, APPROXIMATELY 376 NM EAST
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH
PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. A DISCRETE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
HAS YET TO FORM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW,
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT 94P TRACKING GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. NAVGEM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE DETERMINISTIC MODEL, SHOWING 94P QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING WITHIN
24 HOURS. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE AGGRESSIVE IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
94P. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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ygsj24

ABPW10 PGTW 260200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/260200Z-260600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.5S 164.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 159.4W, APPROXIMATELY 444 NM WEST
OF BORA BORA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHT
AREA OF CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE
(SPCZ). A 252029Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS THAT A SMALL CUSP OR SHARP WAVE
FEATURE HAS FORMED ALONG THE BOUNDARY, THOUGH ALL INDICATIONS INDICATE
THAT THERE IS NOT YET A FULLY CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE ASCAT IMAGE ALSO REVEALS STRONG GALE-FORCE WINDS (35-40
KNOTS) WINDS ALONG THE NORTH AND EASTERN FLANK OF THE SPCZ, AND LIGHT
(5-10 KNOTS) WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH AND WESTERN FLANK. THE MOST RECENT
FRAMES OF VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW SOME LOW-LEVEL BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE
DEVELOPING CENTER TO THE WEST OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE BOUNDARY AND
UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS SHIELD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15
TO 20 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C), AND STRONG
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 94P TRACKING RAPIDLY
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, WHILE MAINTAINING A HIGHLY
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD AS DEPICTED IN THE CURRENT SCATTEROMETER DATA.
ENSEMBLE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A RAPID TRANSIT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SPCZ
AXIS, WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER THE HIGHER WINDS INDICATED IN THE
ENSEMBLES ARE LIKELY PICKING UP ON STRAIGHT-LINE FLOW AND NOT THOSE
DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH 94P. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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红豆棒冰冰

ABPW10 PGTW 260600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/260600Z-270600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.5S 164.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 162.1W, APPROXIMATELY 503 NM
EAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH
PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). A DEFINED CENTER HAS YET TO FORM AS
THE WIND FIELD REMAINS HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WITH STRONGER WINDS (35-40
KTS) ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FLANK OF THE SPCZ WHILE MUCH
WEAKER WINDS (5-10 KTS) MAKE UP THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FLANK.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 94P TRACKING RAPIDLY
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE MAINTAINING AN ASYMMETRIC WIND
FIELD. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF 94P COMPARED TO THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS, LIKELY
PICKING UP ON THE PERIPHERAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE RATHER THAN THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFINED CIRCULATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.6S
166.0E, APPROXIMATELY 234 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 90P
TRACKING GENERALLY EASTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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ABPW10 PGTW 270230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/270230Z-270600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270221ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
18.2S 160.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.3S 159.4W, APPROXIMATELY 492 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BORA BORA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL VISUAL IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED AND MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) SHOOTING OFF TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. DEEP FLARING
CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO AN AREA OF MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WITH INCREASED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (20-25KTS), AND POOR OUTFLOW ALOFT.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE SUPPORTIVE (27-29C).  GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM KICKING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND EDDYING
SOUTHEAST OF INVEST 90P, WHICH IS BEGINNING TO HOG THE ENERGY IN THE
SPCZ AND DEEPEN.  AS THE CIRCULATION UPSTREAM DEVELOPS, INVEST 94P IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TRACKABLE CIRCULATION BUT NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.0S 168.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 168.8E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL VISUAL IMAGERY
(MSI) AS WELL AS A 262145Z METOP-C MHS 89V MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT
INVEST 90P COALESCING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
OVERSHOOTING TOPS ARE OBSERVED IN THE CURVED FORMATIVE BANDING ON THE
NORTHEAST PERIMETER, AND CONVECTION IS DEEPENING NEAR THE LLCC. A
262149Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION WITH 15-
20KT WINDS PRIMARILY RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER A BELT OF LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
(5-10KTS) WITH DECENT OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND STEADY
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS BENEFITTING FROM
GRADIENT LEVEL VORTICITY SUPPLIED BY EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED
WITH A MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION PULSE THAT IS MOVING TOWARDS THE
DATELINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE:  DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO LOW
AND UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO HIGH.//
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