TCFA - 卡奔塔利亚湾18U(92P) - 14.0S 141.1E

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sh922026 INVEST 20260122 0000 -12.1 138.3 P DB 15 1009

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Tropical Low 18U
Tropical low in the Gulf of Carpentaria moving towards Cape York Peninsula.

• A tropical low (18U) is forming in the Gulf of Carpentaria and moving to the east towards Cape York Peninsula.
• The low is likely to be slow moving off the western Cape York Peninsula from Friday and drift southwards towards the southern Gulf coast next week.
• There are mixed prospects for any development of this low. At this stage 18U only has a Low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone from late Friday onwards.
• The longer term possibilities next week include movement over northwest Queensland and to the west towards the Northern Territory.
• Residents of north Queensland and eastern Northern Territory should monitor forecasts for the latest updates.
  

Last updated
32 minutes ago, 08:46 am UTC

Tropical lows

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Tomorrow 12:00 am

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Tue 27  Jan 12:00 pm

Wed 28  Jan 12:00 am

Wed 28  Jan 12:00 pm

Thu 29  Jan 12:00 am

Thu 29  Jan 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 18U

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

10 (Low)

5 (Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析T1.0

TPPS12 PGTW 221748
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92P (NORTH OF MORNINGTON ISLAND)
B. 22/1730Z
C. 13.12S
D. 140.62E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   HUYNH

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 18Z分析T1.0

TXPS28 KNES 221829
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92P)
B.  22/1730Z
C.  13.7S
D.  140.3E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T1.0/1.0
G.  IR/EIR/PRXY
H.  REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. LLCC
WELL-DEFINED. MET AND PT=1.0. FT BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...KONON

红豆棒冰冰

ABPW10 PGTW 221900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/221900Z-230600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221351ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 22JAN26 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 25.2S 172.4E, APPROXIMATELY 353 NM NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON IS., AND
HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO
50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 221500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.2S 151.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 152.4E, APPROXIMATELY 384 NM
EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. A 221202Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALS A
MORE SYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE OF 90P RELATIVE TO 12 HOURS AGO, WITH
HIGHER (25-30KT) WINDS PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-
28 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CURRENTLY DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT. GFS
CHARACTERIZES SLOW AND GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS, BUT QUICK WEAKENING THEREAFTER. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ILLUSTRATE A
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SCENARIO, WITH BOTH GEFS AND EPS CHARACTERIZING
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.2S
140.4E, APPROXIMATELY 92 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A 221203Z METOP-C
MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATING THE FLARING CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. A NEW AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE LLCC IN RECENT HOURS IN EIR IMAGERY. A 221204 METOP-C PARTIAL
ASCAT PASS REVEALS A BROAD WIND FIELD WITH RELATIVELY WEAK (10-15KT)
WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH 20 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE AREA ARE MODERATELY
FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THIS IS OFFSET BY WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMELINE AND LOCATION
FOR CONSOLIDATION WITH THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE BOTH
INDICATING CONSOLIDATION IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA OVER THE NEXT 36-
48 HOURS WHILE TURNING SOUTHWARD, WHEREAS THE GFS DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE LEAN TOWARDS DELAYED CONSOLIDATION AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD AND CROSSES THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA INTO THE CORAL SEA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2).//
NNNN

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WTPS21 PGTW 230230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
055 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9S 141.1E TO 15.7S 142.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 230000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0S 141.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.2S
140.4E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTHEAST OF MORINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY OBSCURED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVENTION BUILDING OVER
THE CENTER AND VERY WELL-DEFINED FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. RADAR IMAGERY FROM AUSTRALIA SHOWS A
TIGHTENING VORTEX WITH THE LLCC LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE AREA ARE
FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE ON CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, WITH ECMWF
SHOWING THE MOST INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240230Z.
//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析升至T1.5

TPPS12 PGTW 222056
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92P (NORTH OF MORNINGTON ISLAND)
B. 22/2030Z
C. 13.43S
D. 140.95E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   HUYNH

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析打破德法限制，升至T2.0；SSD分析升至T1.5

TPPS12 PGTW 230020
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92P (NORTH OF MORNINGTON ISLAND)
B. 22/2350Z
C. 13.95S
D. 141.05E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.0  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. IRREGULAR CDO OF 70NM IN
DIAMETER YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
BROKE CONSTRAINTS DUE TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   HUYNH

TXPS28 KNES 230057
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92P)
B.  22/2330Z
C.  14.0S
D.  140.8E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY
ORGANIZED LAST 6 HR AND COASTAL RADAR SHOWS NASCENT INNER CORE. CONVECTIVE
CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -88 C. MET=1.5 AND PT=2.0. FT BASED ON CONSTRAINTS
LIMITING FT CHG TO 0.5 IN 6 HR WHEN PREV FT <2.0. SYSTEM LIKELY STRONGER
THAN FT INDICATES.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...KONON

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析维持T2.0

TPPS12 PGTW 230309
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92P (NE OF MORNINGTON ISLAND)
B. 23/0230Z
C. 14.08S
D. 141.17E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED UNDER COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS
1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT. INTENSITY ESTIMATE MAY NOT BE
REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析认定中心在陆地上，SSD分析升至T2.0

TPPS12 PGTW 230603
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92P (NE OF MORNINGTON ISLAND)
B. 23/0530Z
C. 14.41S
D. 141.55E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE
TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

TXPS28 KNES 230618
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92P)
B.  23/0530Z
C.  14.4S
D.  141.5E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...4/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. THE MET IS 1.5 BASED
ON THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT TREND WITHIN THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS
2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT SINCE THE BANDING FEATURE WAS NOT CLEAR
CUT AND A PATTERN ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...COVERDALE