阿拉弗拉海二级热带气旋“菲纳”(02U/05S.Fina) - 影响澳洲北部 - JTWC:65KT

大水台6

97S INVEST 251113 1800 10.0S 114.0E SHEM 15 0

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Tropical Low 02U
Potential for a tropical low to form north of the Kimberley or Northern Territory next week.

• A weak trough lies just south of the Indonesian archipelago, and is expected to extend into the Timor Sea north of the Kimberley over the weekend. It is possible, albeit not likely, that a tropical low (02U) forms in the Timor Sea early next week.
• Should the low form, it would be slow moving in the Timor Sea where environmental conditions are generally supportive for development.
• The risk of 02U to develop into a tropical cyclone increases to Low from Tuesday onwards. The chances of it moving closer to the Northern Territory coast increases later in the week.
  

Last updated
an hour ago, 11:39 pm UTC

Tropical lows

Today 11:00 pm

Tomorrow 11:00 am

Tomorrow 11:00 pm

Sun 16  Nov 11:00 am

Sun 16  Nov 11:00 pm

Mon 17  Nov 11:00 am

Mon 17  Nov 11:00 pm

Tue 18  Nov 11:00 am

Tue 18  Nov 11:00 pm

Wed 19  Nov 11:00 am

Wed 19  Nov 11:00 pm

Thu 20  Nov 11:00 am

Thu 20  Nov 11:00 pm

Fri 21  Nov 11:00 am

Tropical Low 02U

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

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Tropical Low 02U
Increasing risk of a significant tropical system near Northern Territory coast by next weekend.

• A tropical low (02U) is located to the south of Timor-Leste and is expected to move east steadily during the week towards the Northern Territory coast.
• There is an increasing risk of 02U developing into a significant tropical system mid to late in week as it moves over warm Timor Sea waters supported by favourable environmental conditions.
• The risk of 02U developing into a tropical cyclone increases to Moderate from Thursday onwards.
• Residents about the western and northern Top End should monitor forecasts during the week for a potential tropical cyclone near the coast late in the week or on the weekend.
  

Last updated
2 hours ago, 11:44 pm UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Tue 18  Nov 12:00 am

Tue 18  Nov 12:00 pm

Wed 19  Nov 12:00 am

Wed 19  Nov 12:00 pm

Thu 20  Nov 12:00 am

Thu 20  Nov 12:00 pm

Fri 21  Nov 12:00 am

Fri 21  Nov 12:00 pm

Sat 22  Nov 12:00 am

Sat 22  Nov 12:00 pm

Sun 23  Nov 12:00 am

Tropical Low 02U

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

ygsj24

ABIO10 PGTW 161200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/161200Z-161800ZNOV2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.4S
127.6E, APPROXIMATELY 199 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN. ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 160921Z F17 SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS), MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97S WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A GENERALLY EASTWARD
TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1)//
NNNN

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Tropical Low 02U
Increasing risk of a tropical cyclone near or to the north of the Top End coast by Friday.

• Tropical low (02U) is located in the central Timor Sea region and moving east to northeast. 02U may be located close to or off the north coast of Top End or in the Arafura Sea by Friday.
• Environmental conditions are conducive for development of 02U into a tropical cyclone by mid to late week.
• The risk of 02U developing into a tropical cyclone increases to Moderate on Wednesday and then to a High on Friday.
• Residents about the western and northern Top End should monitor forecasts for a potential tropical cyclone near the coast late in the week or on the weekend.
  

Last updated
2 hours ago, 11:24 pm UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Wed 19  Nov 12:00 am

Wed 19  Nov 12:00 pm

Thu 20  Nov 12:00 am

Thu 20  Nov 12:00 pm

Fri 21  Nov 12:00 am

Fri 21  Nov 12:00 pm

Sat 22  Nov 12:00 am

Sat 22  Nov 12:00 pm

Sun 23  Nov 12:00 am

Sun 23  Nov 12:00 pm

Mon 24  Nov 12:00 am

Tropical Low 02U

5 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

45 (Moderate)

45 (Moderate)

55 (High)

55 (High)

55 (High)

55 (High)

55 (High)

55 (High)

55 (High)

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ABIO10 PGTW 170600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/170600Z-171800ZNOV2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.0S 127.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 128.4E, APPROXIMATELY 174 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 162355Z ASCAT-B PASS
SHOWS A SMALL INNER-CORE WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97S WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH A SLOW EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM//
NNNN

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Tropical Low 02U
Increasing risk of a tropical cyclone near or to the north of the Top End coast this week.

• Tropical Low 02U is located northwest of Darwin in the central Timor Sea region and moving slowly to the east northeast.
• 02U is likely to continue moving slowly on a general east to northeast track in coming days. By late Thursday it is likely to turn to the south then southwest towards the NT's northern coast.
• Environmental conditions are favourable for development of 02U and the risk the low develops into a tropical cyclone increases as the week progresses.
• Although there remains high variability in model intensity ranges, there is increasing risk that 02U could become a tropical cyclone on Wednesday or Thursday.
• Residents about the western and northern Top End should monitor forecasts for a potential tropical cyclone near the coast this week.
  

Last updated
35 minutes ago, 08:41 am UTC

Tropical lows

Today 11:00 pm

Tomorrow 11:00 am

Tomorrow 11:00 pm

Wed 19  Nov 11:00 am

Wed 19  Nov 11:00 pm

Thu 20  Nov 11:00 am

Thu 20  Nov 11:00 pm

Fri 21  Nov 11:00 am

Fri 21  Nov 11:00 pm

Sat 22  Nov 11:00 am

Sat 22  Nov 11:00 pm

Sun 23  Nov 11:00 am

Sun 23  Nov 11:00 pm

Mon 24  Nov 11:00 am

Mon 24  Nov 11:00 pm

Tropical Low 02U

5 (Low)

15 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

45 (Moderate)

55 (High)

55 (High)

60 (High)

60 (High)

55 (High)

55 (High)

55 (High)

55 (High)

55 (High)

55 (High)

55 (High)

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WTXS21 PGTW 171330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9S 129.5E TO 8.6S 133.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 171200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.7S 129.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9S 129.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 129.7E, APPROXIMATELY 131
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 170907Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH POCKETS OF DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
15 KNOTS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 97S WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH A SLOW EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181330Z.//
NNNN

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IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0139 UTC 18/11/2025
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 10.2S
Longitude: 130.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: east northeast (062 deg)
Speed of Movement: 5 knots (9 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm (110 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  18/0600: 10.1S 130.5E:     040 (080):  030  (055):  998
+12:  18/1200: 10.0S 130.7E:     050 (090):  030  (055):  998
+18:  18/1800:  9.8S 131.0E:     055 (105):  030  (055):  998
+24:  19/0000:  9.6S 131.2E:     055 (105):  035  (065):  996
+36:  19/1200:  9.2S 132.0E:     075 (140):  040  (075):  993
+48:  20/0000:  9.1S 132.7E:     105 (195):  045  (085):  990
+60:  20/1200:  9.4S 133.1E:     130 (245):  050  (095):  986
+72:  21/0000:  9.8S 133.1E:     150 (275):  055  (100):  983
+96:  22/0000: 11.0S 131.9E:     175 (325):  060  (110):  980
+120: 23/0000: 11.9S 130.2E:     190 (350):  040  (075):  993
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 02U has been slowly strengthening, but is showing limited
organization near the centre, which leads to higher uncertainty in the low
level centre position. Position was based on animated Vis and IR imagery.

Dvorak pattern is a curved base of 0.2 to 0.3, with a DT of 1.5 +/- 0.5. A D-
24 hour trend gives a MET of 2.0, and there is no adjustment to PAT. This gives
FT/CI of 2.0. Intensity set to 30 knots based on a past scatterometry pass.

CIMMS is analysing 15 to 20 knots of easterly shear, which could improve. But
there are also signs is changes to northerly and remains moderate. TPW
indicates deep moisture right near the centre. Models indicate the chance of
dry air wrapping to the north but with not high shear the could remain pouched
in moist air. Upper divergence good but not enhanced by nearby features like an
upper trough to the south. And there is little in the way of external forcing.
Therefore, strengthening is expected but there is some uncertainty as to how
much. With there being little environmental vorticity, it is expected to be a
small system which could strengthen, and weaken, quickly. Forecast peak
intensity is 60 knots (category 2), and there is a chance it reaches category
3.

Consensus of NWP model tracks has the system moving slowly towards the NE
before recurving around to the south and then taking a SE track back towards
the northern coastline of the NT.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/0730 UTC.



Tropical Low 02U is slowly strengthening, to reach tropical cyclone strength on Thursday while it is north of the Northern Territory.

Area affected
Warning zone
None.

Watch zone
None.

Cancelled zone
None.

At 9:30 am Australian Central Standard Time
At 9:30 am ACST

Intensity
tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour

Location
within 55 kilometres of 10.2 degrees South, 130.3 degrees East, 255 kilometres north northwest of Darwin and 135 kilometres north of Pirlangimpi

Movement
east northeast at 9 kilometres per hour

02U has been slowly strengthening over warm waters. It is currently moving to the northeast, taking it away from the Northern Territory. On Thursday it is likely to reach tropical cyclone strength and start moving south then southwest, taking it towards the Northern Territory coast.

Hazards

Communities over the Northern Territory are not expected to be impacted within the next 48 hours by Tropical Low 02U.


Recommended action
NTES advises for residents to follow the directions of emergency services.

Details

	Time  (ACST)	Intensity category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated position accuracy
0 hr	9 am November 18	tropical low	10.2° S	130.3° E	55 km
+6 hr	3 pm November 18	tropical low	10.1° S	130.5° E	80 km
+12 hr	9 pm November 18	tropical low	10.0° S	130.7° E	90 km
+18 hr	3 am November 19	tropical low	9.8° S	131.0° E	105 km
+24 hr	9 am November 19	tropical low	9.6° S	131.2° E	105 km
+36 hr	9 pm November 19	tropical low	9.2° S	132.0° E	140 km
+48 hr	9 am November 20	1	9.1° S	132.7° E	195 km
+60 hr	9 pm November 20	2	9.4° S	133.1° E	245 km
+72 hr	9 am November 21	2	9.8° S	133.1° E	275 km

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 4:30 pm ACST Tuesday

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