墨西哥西南热带风暴“索尼娅”(18E.Sonia) - 逐渐西行

yhh

92E INVEST 251023 0600 10.3N 108.0W EPAC 15 1009

---

1. Central East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the coast
of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the end of the weekend while it moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Ragasa

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 23 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Central East Pacific (EP92):
A tropical wave located well to the south of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the end of the weekend while it moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.



Forecaster Bucci

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232310
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 23 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
well south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula have
become slightly better organized since yesterday.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next
couple of days or over the weekend while it moves generally westward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

pocketbox

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Oct 23 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Central East Pacific (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
well south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula have
become slightly better organized since yesterday. However, recent
satellite-derived wind data indicate that a well-defined surface
circulation has not yet formed. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the weekend while it moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Forecaster Gibbs

pocketbox

WTPN21 PHNC 240630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 111.5W TO 13.9N 117.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.9N 112.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) IS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N
112.0W, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND, MEXICO. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED,
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15 KTS, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
27-28 C. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE SYSTEM HAVING A GENERAL WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE 24 HOURS, WHILE SLOWLY CONTINUING TO
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250630Z.//
NNNN

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241742
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 24 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP92):
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the surface
circulation associated with an area of low pressure located well
south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula has
become better defined.  Environmental conditions appear conducive
for further development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form later today or tonight while it moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

ygsj24

770
WTPZ43 KNHC 242035
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182025
200 PM PDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Over the past few days, the area of low pressure that the National
Hurricane Center has been monitoring, located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, has
gradually become better organized and has now acquired a
well-defined circulation center.  Recent AMSR2 and SSMIS microwave
passes revealed developing curved bands (-70C cloud tops) to the
north and south of the depression's center.  The Dvorak intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB are T2.0 (30 kt), and a fortuitous
METOP-B scatterometer overpass indicates maximum sustained winds of
25-30 kt.  Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical
Depression Eighteen-E, with an initial intensity of 30 kt.

Although the depression is expected to remain over warm SSTs, a
marginally favorable thermodynamic surrounding environment and
moderate west-southwesterly shear should hamper significant
development.  Accordingly, gradual strengthening is expected during
the next 72 hours.  After that time, the depression is expected to
traverse progressively cooler oceanic surface temperatures and
commence a gradual weakening trend.  The NHC intensity forecast
closely follows a blend of the IVCN and HCCA Corrected Consensus
intensity aids and shows the depression becoming a remnant low in 5
days.  

The depression's initial motion is estimated to be westward or
270/11 kt.  A west-to-east-oriented subtropical ridge located to
the north of the depression should steer the cyclone in a generally
westward or west-northwestward heading during the next 5 days.  By
Saturday, however, the depression is forecast to slow in forward
speed in response to a slight weakening of the ridge while an
amplifying mid- to upper-level mid-latitude trough approaches the
southwest U.S. coast/Baja California offshore waters.  Over the
remaining portion of the period, the depression is forecast to
degenerate into a remnant low while continuing generally westward in
the low-level trade wind flow.  The official track forecast lies
between the better-performing HCCA and Google DeepMind ensemble mean
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 13.2N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  25/0600Z 13.3N 117.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  25/1800Z 13.5N 118.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  26/0600Z 13.5N 119.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  26/1800Z 13.8N 120.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  27/0600Z 14.1N 120.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  27/1800Z 14.6N 121.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
96H  28/1800Z 15.4N 123.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 15.2N 126.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

pocketbox

WTPZ43 KNHC 250235
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182025
800 PM PDT Fri Oct 24 2025

The depression has changed little over the past several hours.
Geostationary satellite imagery has shown deep convection
periodically forming near the center, with a broad, loose band
wrapping around the northern side of the circulation.  Subjective
Dvorak estimates remain at T2.0 and the initial intensity is held at
30 kt for this advisory.

During the next couple of days, environmental and oceanic conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual strengthening.  The sea
surface temperatures should be between 27-26 deg C, with
light-to-moderate vertical wind shear, and sufficient mid-level
humdities.  Around 48 to 60 h, global models suggest the wind shear
should gradually increase, inducing a gradual weakening trend.  By
the end of the forecast period, cooling ocean waters and
increasingly dry air are expected reduce and dissipate the deep,
organized convection.  GFS and ECMWF are suggesting this may occur
sooner, and the official forecast now shows the depression becoming
a post-tropical cyclone by day 4.  

The estimated motion of the depression is 270 degrees at 7 kt.  A
subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should be the main
steering feature for the next 5 days, which will initially continue
its westward heading with a decreasing forward speed.  By the end of
the weekend, an amplifying mid- to upper-level mid-latitude trough
should slightly weaken the ridge, causing the system to bend
west-northwestward.  As the vortex becomes more shallow by the end
of the forecast period, the post-tropical cyclone should turn back
westward in the low-level flow.  The latest official forecast has
been nudged to the north, and lies between the HCCA and the previous
prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 13.2N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  25/1200Z 13.3N 117.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  26/0000Z 13.4N 118.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  26/1200Z 13.5N 119.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  27/0000Z 13.8N 120.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  27/1200Z 14.4N 120.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  28/0000Z 14.9N 121.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  29/0000Z 15.5N 124.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  30/0000Z 15.2N 127.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci

ygsj24

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 250834
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182025
200 AM PDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Satellite imagery shows deep convection expanding over the low-level
circulation center, with cloud-top temperatures near −80 C.
Subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are
in agreement at 2.5/35 kt, which is supported by the latest UW–CIMSS
objective estimates. Based on the improving satellite presentation
and these data, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm
Sonia, with the initial intensity set at 35 kt.

Sonia has a brief window of opportunity to gradually strengthen over
the weekend while it remains over warm waters and within a moist,
low-shear environment. Strengthening should level off by Monday as
southwesterly vertical wind shear begins to increase. By Tuesday, a
combination of stronger shear, drier mid- to upper-level air, and
cooler sea-surface temperatures should induce a gradual weakening
trend. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models supports
this scenario, depicting convection diminishing by midweek. As a
result, Sonia is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant
low by day 4. The NHC intensity forecast remains very similar to the
previous one and continues to closely follow the consensus aids.

The initial motion is toward the west, or 275/8 kt, along the
southern side of a subtropical ridge that is expected to persist
through the first half of the weekend. A turn toward the northwest
is anticipated for a brief period late Sunday into early next week
as a weakness develops in the ridge in response to a mid-latitude
trough passing over the northern Pacific. A turn back toward the
west is then expected by Tuesday and into midweek as the ridge
restrengthens to the north. By day 5, Sonia is forecast to become
increasingly influenced by the low-level trade wind flow, which
should steer it southwestward. The latest NHC track forecast remains
close to the previous advisory and lies between the HCCA and
Google DeepMind solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 13.3N 117.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  25/1800Z 13.4N 118.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  26/0600Z 13.4N 119.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  26/1800Z 13.6N 120.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  27/0600Z 14.1N 121.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
60H  27/1800Z 14.6N 121.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  28/0600Z 15.2N 122.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  29/0600Z 15.5N 125.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/0600Z 14.8N 128.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：张怡驰、刘涛  签发：董林  2025 年 10 月 25 日 18 时
“索尼娅”在东北太平洋生成

时        间:     25日14时（北京时）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “索尼娅”， SONIA

中心位置:    北纬13.2度，西经117.2度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    8级，18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压:    1006百帕

参考位置:   距墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角西南方向约1318公里

变化过程:    “索尼娅”于今天下午生成

预报结论:   “索尼娅”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度缓慢增强



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年10月25日14时00分）

“梅利莎”向西北方向移动

时        间:     25日14时（北京时）

海        域:    北大西洋

命        名:    “梅利莎”， MELISSA

中心位置:    北纬16.3度，西经74.9度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    11级，30米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压:    986百帕

参考位置:   距离海地太子港西南方向约368公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“梅利莎”由8级增强到11级

预报结论:   “梅利莎”将以每小时5公里左右的速度向西北方向移动，强度快速增强



图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年10月25日14时00分）