小笠原群岛以东2522号热带风暴“夏浪”(28W.Halong) - 数值支持发展，趋向日本以南，未来路径扑朔迷离

ygsj24

实时云图

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编扰资讯

94W INVEST 251002 1200 17.1N 149.6E WPAC 15 0

质子衰变

此前集合预报中远期可能影响东南沿海的TC

Mancwman

這個吹台灣還是廣東要等數天後才明朗。

Folgemir

万幸到10月中旬以后副高开始减弱，不然又是南海台（虽然经过几个台风消耗以后南海潜热不支持高强度发展了）

hei

吹襲華東機會猶在

renzhetegong

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1012 HPA NEAR 22N 144E WEST SLOWLY.

恒信金仁

华东那团暖水消耗也有利于副高减弱

xzt123456789

JTWC: LOW

ABPW10 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/031500Z-040600ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030751ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 03OCT25 1200Z, TROPICAL STORM 27W (MATMO) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.5N 119.4E, APPROXIMATELY 197 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT
60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 031500)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 21.6N
144.7E, APPROXIMATELY 264 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN. AANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) AS WELL AS A 031122Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS
REVEAL A VERY BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY WITH NO DISCERNABLE LLCC. THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
PASS FURTHER HIGHLIGHTS THE WAVE LIKE NATURE OF THIS AREA (94W) WITH
WRAPPING 10-15KT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN BOUNDARY AND WEAK MULTI
DIRECTIONAL WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
FOR THIS SYSTEM INDICATE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KT), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-29C) AND MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST OVER THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS AND GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE.   MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1011 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1)//
NNNN

ygsj24

ABPW10 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/040300Z-040600ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040151ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 04OCT25 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 27W (MATMO) WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.2N 116.7E, APPROXIMATELY 283 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, AND
HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO
75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 040300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
21.6N 144.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 143.1E, APPROXIMATELY 129 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN OBSCURED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A RECENT 040040Z ASCAT-C 25 KM PASS REVEALS
A CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN QUADRANT AND 5-15 KNOTS
ELSEWHERE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15-20
KNOTS, GOOD DUAL CHANNEL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT UPON
INTENSITY BUT DO CONCUR WITH A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD TAIWAN. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN