阿拉伯海北部强气旋风暴“沙赫提”(ARB 02/02A.Shakhti) - 将西行回旋 - JTWC:75KT

Lupiter

90A INVEST 250929 0000 20.2N 70.7E IO 25 1000

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ABIO10 PGTW 290600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/290600Z-291800ZSEP2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.2N
70.7E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTREMELY BROAD AREA OF
TURNING CHARACTERIZED BY FLARING CONVECTION AND NO DEFINED LLCC WITH
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH BEING SHEARED OFF. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH (20KT-30KT) VWS AND RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY
WARM SST (27C-29C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
CONFIDENT IN A STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS THE INVEST TRANSITIONS OVER OPEN OCEAN. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1)//
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JTWC: MEDIUM

ABIO10 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/010900Z-011800ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010751ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 01OCT25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.9N 86.5E, APPROXIMATELY 416 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA,
INDIA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 010900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.4N 86.8E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE
PARA. 1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
21.7N 68.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 68.6E, APPROXIMATELY 189 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 010430Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS A DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH 25-30 KNOTS WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28
C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON CONTINUED STEADY DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT GENERALLY ARE ON DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
OF INVEST 90A. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VERY SLOW TRACK SPEEDS
AND POSSIBLE ERRATIC MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS DUE TO THE
PLACEMENT BETWEEN RIDGING TO BOTH THE EAST AND WEST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
WARNING STATUS AND UPGRADED AREA IN 1.B.(2) TO MEDIUM.//
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WTIO21 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90A) //
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.7N 68.2E TO 19.5N 62.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.7N 68.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
22.0N 68.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 68.2E, APPROXIMATELY 278 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING AND BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTER AND FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VWS (10-15 KNOTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 C).  GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MOST MODELS KEEPING THE SYSTEM AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WARNING
CRITERIA.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A SLUGGISH WESTWARD TRACK OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28
TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030600Z.
//
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