百慕大西南二级飓风“伊梅尔达”(09L.Imelda) - 与Humberto共舞，影响巴哈马群岛 - NHC:85KT

qiqi

AL, 94, 2025092306,   , BEST,   0, 172N,  607W,  25, 1010, DB,

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2. East of the Leeward Islands:
A tropical wave located about 100 miles east of the Leeward Islands
is producing concentrated, but disorganized, showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear marginally
conducive for some development over the next few days as the wave
moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.  By the latter
part of this week, the system is expected to slow down and turn
northwestward, and a tropical depression could form late this week
when the system is over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean or near the
Bahamas. Regardless of development, gusty winds and heavy rainfall
are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight
and Tuesday, and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands late Tuesday and
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231128
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located a little less than 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to be favorable for development over the next several
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the latter half
of this week while the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward into the western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms, and gusty winds across much of the Windward and
Leeward Islands.  This wave is expected to move west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds into
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday.  The
system is then expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it
reaches the southwestern Atlantic near the Bahamas late this week,
and a tropical depression could form when the disturbance is in that
region.  Interests in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Papin

qiqi

2. East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers,
thunderstorms and gusty winds across much of the Windward and
Leeward Islands.  This wave is expected to move west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds into
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday.  The
system is then expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it
reaches the southwestern Atlantic near the Bahamas late this week,
and a tropical depression could form when the disturbance is in that
region.  Interests in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 232337
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 750 miles east of the Leeward Islands has become
better organized since yesterday.  Environmental conditions are
forecast to be favorable for further development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while
the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the
western tropical Atlantic, well north of the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL94):
A tropical wave over the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers,
thunderstorms and gusty winds across much of the Windward and
Leeward Islands.  This wave is expected to move west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds into
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday, and across
the Dominican Republic beginning late Wednesday.  The system is then
expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it reaches the
southwestern Atlantic in a couple of days.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to be more conducive for development late this week,
and a tropical depression is likely to form when the disturbance is
in the vicinity of the Bahamas.  Interests in the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

ygsj24

458
ABNT20 KNHC 240532
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 700 miles east of the Leeward Islands continues to
show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions are forecast
to be favorable for further development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system
moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the western tropical
Atlantic, well north of the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL94):
A tropical wave over the northeastern Caribbean Sea continues to
produce a large area of disorganized showers, thunderstorms and
gusty winds across much of the Windward and Leeward Islands.  This
wave is expected to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph,
spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds into Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands today, and across the Dominican Republic beginning
tonight.  The system is then expected to slow down and turn
northwestward when it reaches the southwestern Atlantic in a couple
of days.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for development late this week and weekend, and a tropical
depression is likely to form when the disturbance is in the vicinity
of the Bahamas.  Interests in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 242343
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic, and on
newly formed Tropical Storm Humberto, located several hundred miles
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  

Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized since
yesterday in association with a tropical wave centered near Puerto
Rico.  This wave is expected to move west-northwestward around 10
to 15 mph, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds across Puerto
Rico and the Dominican Republic through early tomorrow.  The system
is then expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it
reaches the southwestern Atlantic.  A tropical depression is likely
to form when the disturbance is in the vicinity of the Bahamas late
this week.  Interests in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the
Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Humberto are issued under WMO header
WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Humberto are issued under WMO header
WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Blake

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 250525
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic, and on
Tropical Storm Humberto, located several hundred miles
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  

Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL94):
A tropical wave centered near the Dominican Republic continues to
produces widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  The
wave is expected to move west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph,
spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds across Puerto Rico and the
Dominican Republic through today.  The system is then expected to
slow down and turn northwestward when it reaches the southwestern
Atlantic.  A tropical depression is likely to form when the
disturbance is in the vicinity of the Bahamas late this week.  
Interests in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks
and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Humberto are issued under WMO header
WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Humberto are issued under WMO header
WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

ygsj24

777
ABNT20 KNHC 251131
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic, and on
Tropical Storm Humberto, located several hundred miles
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  

Central Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Atlantic (AL94):
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers,
thunderstorms, and gusty winds across portions of the Dominican
Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.  An area of low pressure
is expected to form along the wave tonight or early Friday when it
moves near the southeast Bahamas.  This low is expected to become
a tropical depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and
northwest Bahamas in a couple of days.  Interests in the Dominican
Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system as heavy rains and gusty
winds are likely across that region regardless of development.  
Interests along the coast of the southeastern United States should
also monitor the progress of this system.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Humberto are issued under WMO header
WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Humberto are issued under WMO header
WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 251722
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located several hundred miles west of the Azores, and on
Tropical Storm Humberto, over the subtropical central Atlantic.  

Central Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in association with a
a tropical wave located near Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos
Islands.  An area of low pressure is expected to form along the
wave tonight or early Friday when it moves near the southeast
Bahamas.  This low is expected to become a tropical depression when
it is in the vicinity of the central and northwest Bahamas late
Friday or over the weekend and then track northwestward or
northward over the southwestern Atlantic.  

Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
system.  Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds
are likely across that region during the next couple of days.  
While there is significant uncertainty in the long-range track and
intensity of the system, the chances of wind, rainfall, and storm
surge impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast are
increasing. Interests in that area should monitor the progress of
the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Humberto are issued under WMO header
WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Humberto are issued under WMO header
WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart

pocketbox

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle, near the eastern Azores, and on
recently upgraded Hurricane Humberto, over the subtropical central
Atlantic.

1. Southwestern Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a tropical wave located near Hispaniola, the
Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern Cuba.  An area of low pressure
is expected to form along the wave by tonight when it moves near the
southeast Bahamas.  This low is expected to become a tropical
depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and northwest
Bahamas over the weekend, and then track northwestward or northward
over the southwestern Atlantic.

Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are ongoing
in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and are likely to spread across the Bahamas and eastern Cuba during
the next day or two. Interests in all of these areas should monitor
the progress of the system. While there remains considerable
uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system,
there is a significant risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge
impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast early next week.
Interests in this area should also monitor the progress of the
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Cangialosi