TCFA - 墨西哥以南96E - 11.3N 103.1W - NHC:60%

Lupiter

96E INVEST 250916 0600 11.6N 103.2W EPAC 25 1008

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1. Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An trough of low pressure located several hundred miles off the
coast of southern Mexico continues to produce a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter
part of this week as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
over the central east Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

pocketbox

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula.

1. Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the coast
of southern Mexico continues to produce a broad area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the middle to latter part of
this week as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the
central east Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Forecaster Kelly

pocketbox

WTPN21 PHNC 161230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2N 102.8W TO 15.1N 108.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.3N 103.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.3N 102.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 103.1W, APPROXIMATELY 376 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULO. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING WITH BROADER BANDING TO THE NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A STEADY DEVELOPMENT WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
171230Z.//
NNNN

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161720
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the coast
of southern Mexico continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central east
Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly