TCFA - 墨西哥西南92E - 14.9N 107.0W - NHC:60%

yhh

92E INVEST 250824 0000 14.1N 105.4W EPAC 25 1007

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1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well off the coast of
Mexico. This system is expected to move into less favorable
conditions to develop around the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240541
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 23 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well off the coast of
Mexico. This system is expected to move into less favorable
conditions to develop around the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

pocketbox

WTPN21 PHNC 240830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.7N 106.6W TO 19.0N 115.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240821Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.9N 107.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) IS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N
107.0W, APPROXIMATELY 288 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 240042Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN EXPOSED BROAD, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-30 KNOTS,
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE UPON A WEST NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BUT SLOW
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250830Z.//
NNNN

菜园子

FNV3 00Z