背风群岛以东热带风暴“埃林”(05L.Erin) - 逐渐西行，数值支持发展

理可的呆萌呆毛

实时云图

---

编扰资讯

97L INVEST 250809 1200 10.1N 17.0W ATL 25 1006

---

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave that has now emerged offshore the west coast of
Africa is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by
the middle to latter portion of next week while it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic. Locally heavy rainfall is possible Sunday and
Monday across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

ygsj24

385
ABNT20 KNHC 091738
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
just off the west coast of Africa.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle to latter portion of next week
while moving west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic.  Locally heavy rainfall is possible
Sunday and Monday across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Central Atlantic (AL96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are occurring in association
with a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic.  
Development of this system appears unlikely during the next day or
two due to surrounding dry air, but some gradual development is
possible during the middle part of next week while the system moves
northward across the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 092319
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
just off the west coast of Africa.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle to latter portion of next week
while moving west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic.  Locally heavy rainfall is possible
Sunday and Monday across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Central Atlantic (AL96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic.  Development of
this system appears unlikely during the next couple of days due to
surrounding dry air, but some gradual development is possible during
the middle part of next week while the system moves northward across
the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 100528
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
just to the east and southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle to latter portion of this week while moving
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.  Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are
possible today and Monday across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Central Atlantic (AL96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a trough of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic.   
Development of this system appears unlikely during the next couple
of days due to surrounding dry air, but some gradual development is
possible during the middle part of this week while the system moves
northward over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101140
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
tropical wave located just to the southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the middle to latter portion of this week while moving
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.  Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds are possible today and Monday across the
Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Central Atlantic (AL96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a trough of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic.  Development of this system should be slow to occur
during the next couple of days due to surrounding dry air, but some
gradual development is possible during the middle part of this week
while the system moves northward over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

pocketbox

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
935 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the disturbance
located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands (AL97).

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Updated:  Recently received satellite-derived wind data indicate
that a well-defined low pressure system has formed about midway
between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands with
maximum winds of about 35 mph.  Although the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity still lacks some organization, only a small
increase in the organization could lead to the formation of a
tropical depression before the low moves near or across the Cabo
Verde Islands tonight and on Monday.  Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible today and Monday
across the Cabo Verde Islands, and interests there should monitor
the progress of this system.

Even if a tropical depression does not form over the next day or so,
environmental conditions appear conducive for later development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle to latter
portion of this week while moving west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



2. Central Atlantic (AL96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a trough of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic.  Development of this system should be slow to occur
during the next couple of days due to surrounding dry air, but some
gradual development is possible during the middle part of this week
while the system moves northward over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Berg/Blake

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101736
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
in association with a well-defined low pressure area located about
100 miles east of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Only a small increase in
the organization could lead to the formation of a tropical
depression before the low moves near or across the Cabo Verde
Islands tonight and on Monday.  Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible today and Monday across
the Cabo Verde Islands, and interests there should monitor the
progress of this system.

Even if a tropical depression does not form over the next day or so,
environmental conditions appear very conducive for later
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form by the middle to latter portion of this week while moving
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Atlantic (AL96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a trough of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic.  Some gradual development is possible during the middle
part of this week while the system moves northward over the central
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 102340
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
in association with a well-defined low pressure area located over
the eastern portion of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Only a small
increase in the organization could lead to the formation of a
tropical depression as the low continues moving across the Cabo
Verde Islands tonight and on Monday.  Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to continue
tonight and Monday across the Cabo Verde Islands, and interests
there should monitor the progress of this system.

Even if a tropical depression does not form over the next day or so,
environmental conditions appear conducive for later development, and
a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form by the
middle to latter portion of this week while moving westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Atlantic (AL96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a trough of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic.  Some gradual development is possible during the middle
part of this week while the system moves northward over the central
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

理可的呆萌呆毛

感覺今天（世界協調時）就能TD

25°W附近結構這麽好的東西很少見

9916-Bart

有点意思