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发表于 2025-8-7 16:48
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JTWC/16W/#02/08-07 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-8-7 18:00 编辑
WDPN32 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 18.6N 147.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 335 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 11 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT
CIRCULATION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) DRIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE CLEAR AIR NORTH OF AN AREA OF
DEEP FLARING CONVECTION. THE LATEST FRAMES OF VISIBLE IMAGERY
BEFORE THE SUN GOES DOWN SHOW ANOTHER FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING NEAR THE LLCC. HOWEVER, THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
APPEARS TO BE IMPACTED BY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND REMAINS UNCOVERED BY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A 070315Z AMSR2 COLOR-ENHANCED 89GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTED WELL-DEFINED BUT SHALLOW BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO
THE LLCC, WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH BY LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAK TUTT-
CELL POSITIONED APPROXIMATELY 400NM TO THE NORTHWEST, AND A MUCH
STRONGER TUTT-CELL LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 950NM TO THE EAST. CURRENT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FLOWING SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN THESE TWO TUTT-
CELLS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SPLIT IN THE FLOW IN THE IMMEDIATELY
VICINITY OF TS 16W. OUTFLOW ALOFT IS PREDOMINANTLY EQUATORWARD, BUT
THERE IS ALSO A WEAK OUTFLOW CHANNEL PUSHING WESTWARD AND THEN
POLEWARD INTO THE TUTT-CELL TO THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW
T2.0 FIX. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK AND THE PRONOUNCED
VORTEX TILT CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE MSI LOOP AND THE AMSR2 MICROWAVE
IMAGERY.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: STEERING IS BEING INFLUENCED BY COMPETING
FORCES, SPECIFICALLY THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) FAR TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF A STR
CENTERED NEAR OKINAWA. CURRENTLY, THE STRONGER STEERING INFLUENCE IS
THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 29 KTS AT 070540Z
CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 070540Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 26 KTS AT 070314Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 26 KTS AT 070610Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W IS FORECAST TO TRACK
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MARIANAS ISLAND CHAIN AROUND
TAU 24. OVER THIS PERIOD, THE STR OVER OKINAWA WILL RECEDE
WESTWARD, ALLOWING FOR THE EASTERN STR TO BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF
TS 16W. SLOWLY AND SURELY, THE TRAJECTORY OF TS 16W WILL FLATTEN
OUT AND BECOME MORE WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AS THE STR TO THE EAST
BUILDS. AFTER TAU 48, THE WESTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH
THE RIDGE OF THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC, RESULTING IN A STRONG,
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTH OF
TAIWAN ALL THE WAY TO NEAR 35N 160E. FROM TAU 48 THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, TS 16W WILL TRAVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS EXTENSIVE RIDGING PATTERN. IN TERMS OF
INTENSITY, IN THE NEAR-TERM, THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY MUCH DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN ASYMMETRIC VORTEX, AND THE
PRESENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IN THE EASTERN QUADRANTS, INHIBITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF UPSHEAR CONVECTION. MOST OF THE GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE
MODELS ANTICIPATE A REDUCTION IN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
AS THE TUTT-CELL TO THE WEST MOVES AWAY, FURTHER TO THE WEST OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE
AND BEGIN TO ALIGN VERTICALLY. AFTER TAU 48, UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, BUT BY THEN THE VORTEX SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO RESIST, AND THE INCREASED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WILL SUPPORT
THE START OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER A POOL OF
HIGH OHC WATERS. ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW DECREASES AGAIN AFTER TAU 72, WITH
SHEAR VALUES DROPPING OFF, ALLOWING TS 16W TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST, REACHING A PEAK OF AT LEAST 110
KNOTS, AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER BY TAU 120.
MODEL DISCUSSION: THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE PACKAGE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRACK SCENARIO AND GENERAL SHAPE OF THE
TRAJECTORY. HOWEVER, CROSS-TRACK UNCERTAINTY IS MODERATE EVEN AS
EARLY AS TAU 72, WITH THE SPREAD OPENING UP TO 160NM BETWEEN THE
EGRR ON THE RIGHT AND THE GFS AND GEFS ON THE LEFT. TRACK SPREAD,
BOTH ALONG- AND CROSS-TRACK, CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST, OPENING UP TO 300NM AND 260NM RESPECTIVELY. THE
UKMET ENSEMBLE IS BY FAR THE FASTEST MODEL, PUSHING OUT WEST OF ALL
THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS, WHILE THE GFS LAGS FURTHER
BEHIND THE OTHERS. BY TAU 120, THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND THE
NAVGEM, BOTH SHIFT THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD, MORE TOWARDS
MIYAKOJIMA, WHILE THE GFS-GEFS ARE ON A FLATTER WESTWARD TRAJECTORY
SOUTH OF 20N. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE (GEFS AND ECENS) ARE ALIGNED IN
DEPICTING THE OVERALL TRACK TRAJECTORY OF NORTHWEST THEN TURNING
WEST, BUT DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY, WITH THE ECENS
DEPICTING A SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER AMOUNT OF CROSS-TRACK UNCERTAINTY
THAN THE GEFS. THE ECENS ENVELOPE IS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 18N TO 26N,
WHILE THE GEFS IS 18N-23N. THE ECMWF-AIFS IS ALSO POSITIONED ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, ALONG WITH SOME OF THE
OTHER AI MODELS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN, AND
CLOSE TO THE GEFS MEAN AND EC-AIFS TRACKER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
ALSO IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A SLOW RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE
NEAR-TERM FOLLOWED BY MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION LATER IN THE
FORECAST, BUT ALSO SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. THE
HAFS-A, HWRF, AND COAMPS-TC (GFS) ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, BUT ALSO
MOST RELIABLE, MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS AND ARE TIGHTLY GROUPED UP
THROUGH TAU 72, WHERE THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW INTENSIFICATION BUT
DISAGREE ON THE ULTIMATE PEAK. THE DECAY-SHIPS PACKAGE ALIGNS WITH
THE MESOSCALE MODELS UP TO TAU 60 BUT THEN FLATTEN OUT AT 55 KNOTS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE RIDE, FRIA AND RICN RI AIDS HAVE TRIPPED, BUT ARE
LIKELY A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED ON THE
LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE UP TO TAU 48, CONSISTENT WITH THE HAFS-A,
THOUGH ABOUT 10-15 KNOTS LOWER, HEDGED TOWARDS THE HWRF. PEAK
INTENSITIES IN THE HWRF IS 110 KTS, IN THE HAFS-A 125 KTS AND THE
CTCX 145 KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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发表于 2025-8-7 06:15
发表于 2025-8-7 16:15
