墨西哥西南热带风暴“科斯梅”(03E.Cosme) - 远期与02E藤原

933954

EP, 91, 2025060612,   , BEST,   0, 100N, 1050W,  20, 1007, DB

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2. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure has formed along the western side of
the elongated trough south of Mexico.  Continued gradual development
of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to
form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves
generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

pocketbox

2. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (91E):
A low pressure system located several hundred miles south of
southwestern Mexico is gradually becoming better defined, but the
associated showers and thunderstorms are limited. Gradual
development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the weekend or early next week while the system
moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

红豆棒冰冰

稍早前ASCAT风场扫描

ygsj24

WTPN21 PHNC 062200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9N 104.7W TO 12.0N 107.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 062030Z INDICATES THAT A WEAK CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.1N 105.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.1N 105.7W, APPROXIMATELY 505 NM SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. A
061719Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 18-23KT WINDS OVER
THE WESTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 91E
IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW
(LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91E
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND TAKE A NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
072200Z.
//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jun 6 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico (92E):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are showing
signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm
is likely to form this weekend as the system moves
west-northwestward. Interests in southern and southwestern Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (91E):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure south of southwestern Mexico are beginning to show some
signs of organization. Gradual development of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
weekend or early next week while the system moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

3. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late next week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system as it moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Berg/Jelsema

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ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jun 6 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
continue to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions
are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is expected to form this weekend as the system
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  Locally heavy rains are
possible along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during
the next couple of days, and interests there should monitor the
progress of this system.  For additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern
coast of Mexico have changed little in organization for much of
the day.  However, gradual development of this system is expected,
and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or
early next week while the system moves northwestward at about 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

3. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late next week south
of southern Mexico.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system as it moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

Forecaster Berg

红豆棒冰冰

稍早前ASCAT风场扫描

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jun 7 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized near a
low pressure area located about 150 miles off the coast of
southern Mexico. However, recent satellite data suggest that the
system does not yet have a well-defined circulation. Environmental
conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is expected to form during the next day
or two as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  
Locally heavy rains are possible along portions of the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next couple of days, and interests there
should monitor the progress of this system. For additional
information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 600 miles southwest of the southwestern
coast of Mexico have increased a little, but remain disorganized.  
Continued gradual development of this system is expected, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early
next week while it moves northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

3. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late next week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system as it moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

Forecaster Cangialosi

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Sat Jun 7 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a little more than 150 miles south of the southern coast of
Mexico have continued to become more organized during the past few
hours. Although the system does not yet appear to have a
well-defined circulation, further development is anticipated and a
tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form later today
or tonight. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward near
15 mph today, then continue in that general direction at a slightly
slower forward speed through early next week. Locally heavy rains
are possible along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico
during the next couple of days, and interests there should monitor
the progress of this system. For additional information, including
gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure located about 600 miles southwest of
the southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is
still expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this weekend or early next week while it moves slowly northward to
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

3. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late next week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system as it moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

Forecaster D. Zelinsky

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稍早前ASCAT风场扫描