留尼汪以西强热带风暴第9号“菲蒂娅”(19S.Fytia) - 海峡内快速增强，东行穿过马达加斯加 - MFR:85KT JTWC:100KT

Ragasa

WTIO30 FMEE 011838
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/9/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FYTIA)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/01 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 51.3 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 70 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/02 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

24H: 2026/02/02 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

36H: 2026/02/03 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2026/02/03 18 UTC: 24.6 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 75

60H: 2026/02/04 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 85

72H: 2026/02/04 18 UTC: 26.2 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/05 18 UTC: 29.9 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 120


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S CURVED BAND HAS CONTINUED TO WRAP
FURTHER AROUND. A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE 18UTC, CONVECTION
STRENGTHENED AT THE HEAD OF THE BAND, NEAR THE SYSTEM'S CENTER. THIS
IMPROVEMENT LED TO UPGRADE THE INTENSITY TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM.
HOWEVER, THE 1803Z ASCAT-B PASS, AVAILABLE AFTER ANALYSIS TIME, SHOWS
WEAKER WINDS. THE BEST TRACK WILL THEREFORE BE CORRECTED AFTERHAND :
FYTIA IS STILL AT MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE AT 18UTC. IN
ADDITION, THIS ASCAT PASS SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
THE ESTIMATE: AT 20.4S INSTEAD OF 20.6S.

THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, INITIALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, THEN FROM MONDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, FYTIA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SYSTEM'S MOTION INCREASES. INDEED, THE STEERING FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, WHILE NEAR THE SURFACE, THE SYSTEM
COULD BE GRADUALLY EXPOSED TO CONTRADICTORY FLOWS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRAJECTORY HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
MOST DETERMINISTIC AND AI MODELS NOW SUGGEST A MORE OR LESS SWIFT
SHIFT TOWARDS MID LATITUDES UNDER THE EFFECT OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THE
CURRENT RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC
AND AI MODELS.

REGARDING ITS INTENSITY, FYTIA IS TEMPORARILY BENEFITING FROM RATHER
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM SURFACE WATERS, VERY GOOD DIVERGENCE,
AND LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR. THIS SHOULD ENABLE INTENSIFICATION UP TO
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BY TOMORROW. FROM MONDAY AND EVEN MORE
FROM TUESDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY WORSEN WITH
INCREASING DEEP SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. OCEANIC POTENTIAL
SHOULD ALSO DECREASE WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF 25S. IN THIS
CONTEXT, MOST MODELS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND BEFORE THE SYSTEM MORE
OR LESS DISSIPATES WITHIN A LOW-PRESSURE CORRIDOR. IT COULD THEN LOSE
ITS TROPICAL FEATURES.


EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR : AS FYTIA MOVES AWAY, CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING. THERE ARE
NO LONGER ANY IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM.

REUNION : HEAVY RAIN REACHING LOCALLY 100MM IN 24H AROUND MONDAY.=

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析维持T3.5

TPXS10 PGTW 012106
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA)
B. 01/2030Z
C. 20.49S
D. 51.50E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.5/3.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .7 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS A 3.5. PT AGREES WITH MET. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 020027
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/9/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FYTIA)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/02 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 51.7 E
(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.5/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 59 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 70 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/02 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 195 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2026/02/03 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2026/02/03 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85

48H: 2026/02/04 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 0

60H: 2026/02/04 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 100

72H: 2026/02/05 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/06 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

THE 18UTC ANALYZED POSITION HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED TO 20.3S/51.3E
BASED ON THE 1803Z AND 1840Z ASCAT PASSES. WINDS WERE REDUCED TO 40
KT AT 18UTC IN THE BEST TRACK (NO MORE THAN 38 KT ON THE ASCAT
MEASUREMENT) AND THE 18UTC DVORAK ANALYSIS WAS REVISED DOWNWARDS TO
3.0, DUE TO THE FRAGMENTED CURVED BAND.

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED NEAR THE CENTER,
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LIGHTNING ACTIVITY BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z. THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS INTERMEDIATE BETWEEN A CURVED BAND WRAPPING ABOUT
0.8 AROUND AND A SHEAR PATTERN WITH A CENTER UNDER THE CONVECTIVE
MASS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. THE 2159Z GCOM-W
AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A CLEAR STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE FORMATION OF A CLOSED CONVECTIVE CORE IN 37GHZ.
THIS IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THAT THE CENTER'S MOVEMENT HAS CURVED
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS MOVEMENT BEFORE 18UTC AND
THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME MORE TIGHT COMPARED TO SUNDAY
EVENING'S ASCAT DATA. THESE VARIOUS INPUTS ENABLE US TO ESTIMATE THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE WITH WINDS OF 50
KT, REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOST CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.

THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT
LEAST UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE THE NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH.
BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE MOVEMENT
COULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONNARY DUE TO CONTRADICTORY LOW-LEVEL
STEERING FLOWS WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL
HIGH-PRESSURE CELLS. THE MOVEMENT COULD MORE OR LESS RESUME
SOUTHEASTWARDS FROM THURSDAY UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF A
TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE EAST.
TRACK UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
CURRENT RSMC FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS.

REGARDING ITS INTENSITY, FYTIA IS STILL TEMPORARILY BENEFITING FROM
RATHER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM SURFACE WATERS, VERY GOOD
DIVERGENCE, AND MODERATE SHEAR. THIS COULD PROLONG THE
INTENSIFICATION TREND UNTIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, FROM TUESDAY
MORNING ONWARDS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY DETERIORATE
WITH INCREASING DEEP SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. MOST MODELS NOW
AGREE ON A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHOUT
SUSTAINED CONVECTION AND WITHOUT ANY MORE GALES, DUE TO THE
PERSISTENCE OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND A DRY ENVIRONMENT. FYTIA'S
REMNANTS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY FILL IN WITHIN A LOW-PRESSURE CORRIDOR
AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

REUNION : HEAVY RAIN REACHING LOCALLY 100MM IN 24H ON MONDAY.

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR 008   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020000Z --- NEAR 20.6S 52.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 52.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 21.5S 53.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 22.2S 54.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 22.7S 54.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 23.1S 55.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 24.0S 55.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 26.0S 58.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 52.3E.
02FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185
NM WEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020000Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
021500Z AND 030300Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 020300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR
   
4. 008//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 20.6S 52.0E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 185 NM WEST OF ST DENIS
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FYTIA) AS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
    
19. CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION ATTEMPTING TO BUILD
    
20. AROUND THE CENTER. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
    
21. HAVE WARMED AND PRESSURE FROM NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE IS
    
22. EVIDENT, INDICATING THE STORM HAS BEEN ABLE TO GAIN LITTLE
    
23. STRENGTH. SUPPORTING ARE WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
    
24. AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
    
25. HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR IMAGERY OF THE LLCC AND A 011842Z
    
26. METOP-C ASCAT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
    
27. HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT AND PGTW
    
28. AGENCY FIX.
    
29. 
    
30. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 011842Z METOP-C ASCAT
    
31. 
    
32. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING BETWEEN THE
    
33. NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
    
34. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN.
    
35. 
    
36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
37.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
38.    CIMSS SATCON: 49 KTS AT 020000Z
    
39.    CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 020000Z
    
40.    CIMSS AIDT: 44 KTS AT 020000Z
    
41.    CIMSS D-MINT: 39 KTS AT 012204Z
    
42.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 44 KTS AT 020000Z
    
43. 
    
44. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
45.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
46.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
47.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
48. 
    
49. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
50.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
51.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
52.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
53. 
    
54. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
55. 
    
56. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
57. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
58. 
    
59. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 19S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
    
60. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE INDIAN OCEAN
    
61. CONTINUES TO EXERT MORE INFLUENCE OVER THE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM
    
62. HAS SLOWED AS THE STEERING MECHANISM TRANSITION TAKES PLACE GIVING
    
63. TC 19S A BIT MORE TIME TO GAIN STRENGTH OVER WARM WATER. THIS
    
64. STRENGTHENING PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
    
65. WILL INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS WHILE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND COOLER SEA
    
66. SURFACE TEMPERATURES BECOME ADDITIONAL HINDRANCE TO DEVELOPMENT.
    
67. PEAK INTENSITY IS FORECAST AT 55 KTS AROUND TAU 24 AND STEADY
    
68. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTERWARDS. BETWEEN TAUS 72 AND 96
    
69. SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION WILL INITIATE AS THE STRUCTURE OF THE STORM
    
70. COLLAPSES, CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE, AND THE LLCC DRIFTS
    
71. UNDER THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 19S WILL COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL
    
72. TRANSITION BY TAU 96.
    
73. 
    
74. MODEL DISCUSSION: CROSS TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS APPROXIMATELY 50 NM
    
75. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCLUDING THE INFLUENCE OF NAVGEM
    
76. WHICH DEPICTS A SLOWER TRACK POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THE JTWC
    
77. FORECASTED TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
    
78. ADJUSTED FOR THE OUTLYING NAVGEM DEPICTION WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
79. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SPREAD UP TO 25 KTS WITH COAMPS-TC AND HAFS-A
    
80. CONTINUING TO DEPICT UNREALISTIC, GIVEN FORECASTED ENVIRONMENTAL
    
81. CONDITIONS, WAVERING INTENSITIES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE JTWC
    
82. FORECASTED INTENSITY IS PLACED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL
    
83. CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.   
    
84. 
    
85. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
86.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
87.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
88.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
89.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
90. NNNN

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红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析降至T3.0/3.0

TPXS10 PGTW 012357
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA)
B. 01/2330Z
C. 20.51S
D. 51.86E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.0/3.0  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED 10NM IN SHEARED DENSE
OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS A 3.5. PT AGREES WITH DT.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹越男  签发：董 林  2026 年 02 月 02 日 10 时
“菲蒂娅”向南偏东方向移动

时  间: 2月2日08时（北京时）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “菲蒂娅”，FYTIA

中心位置: 南纬21.0度，东经51.7度

强度等级: 强热带风暴

最大风力: 10级，26米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压: 990百帕

参考位置: “菲蒂娅”距离马达加斯加塔马塔夫东南方向约400公里

变化过程: “菲蒂娅”过去24小时，强度由7级增强至10级

预报结论: “菲蒂娅”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向南偏东方向移动，强度逐渐加强。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年2月2日08时00分）

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析T3.0/3.5

TPXS10 PGTW 020324
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA)
B. 02/0230Z
C. 20.43S
D. 52.14E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.0/3.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .60 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 3.5. PT YIELDS 3.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   01/2142Z  20.33S  51.58E  ATMS
   01/2159Z  20.47S  51.67E  AMS2
   01/2202Z  20.55S  51.90E  ATMS
   LINDGREN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析维持T3.0/3.5

TPXS10 PGTW 020614
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA)
B. 02/0530Z
C. 20.80S
D. 52.15E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.0/3.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .65 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 3.5. PT YIELDS 3.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   02/0241Z  20.78S  51.87E  MMWI
   02/0303Z  20.85S  51.92E  GPMI
   LINDGREN

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 020706
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/9/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FYTIA)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/02 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4 S / 52.4 E
(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 70 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/02 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/02/03 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 130 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2026/02/03 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 0

48H: 2026/02/04 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 100

60H: 2026/02/04 18 UTC: 23.9 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2026/02/05 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WARMED UP, AND THE
CONFIGURATION HAS SHIFTED TO A SHEAR PATTERN. THE ANALYZED SHEAR
REMAINS WEAK TO MODERATE, BUT THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM COULD EXPLAIN THIS PAUSE IN
INTENSIFICATION. THE LATEST GPM MICROWAVE PASS AT 03:18 UTC SHOWS A
LESS DISTINCT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAN THAT OF THE GCOM-W PASS AT
22:00 UTC, WHILE THE SAR-RCM1 PASS AT 02:07 UTC SHOWS 50 KT WINDS IN
THE WESTERN SECTOR OF THE CIRCULATION, VALIDATING THE DVORAK 3.5
ANALYSIS THAT CAN BE PERFORMED. AT 06UTC, FYTIA THEREFORE REMAINS AT
THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 50KT.

THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS MAINTAINED GENERALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
INITIALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE TO
THE NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF ALTITUDE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE MOVEMENT
COULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE PROGRESSIVE
ERASING OF THE DIRECTING FLOW IN LOW LAYERS WITHIN A BAROMETRIC NECK
BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONIC CELLS. BY WEDNESDAY OR EVEN
THURSDAY, A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT COULD MORE OR LESS RESUME UNDER
THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF A TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND A
SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST, A SCENARIO CURRENTLY BEING
CONSIDERED BY THE RSMC. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRAJECTORY
REMAINS QUITE SIGNIFICANT IN THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK AND THE
SYSTEM COULD REMAIN VIRTUALLY STATIONARY TOWARDS ITS END OF LIFE.

REGARDING ITS INTENSITY, FYTIA IS STILL TEMPORARILY BENEFITING FROM
RATHER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM SURFACE WATERS, GOOD
DIVERGENCE, AND MODERATE SHEAR. THIS COULD PROLONG THE
INTENSIFICATION TREND UNTIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, FROM TUESDAY
MORNING ONWARDS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY DETERIORATE
WITH INCREASING DEEP SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. MOST MODELS NOW
AGREE ON A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHOUT
SUSTAINED CONVECTION AND WITHOUT ANY MORE GALES, DUE TO THE
PERSISTENCE OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND A DRY ENVIRONMENT. FYTIA'S
REMNANTS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY FILL IN WITHIN A LOW-PRESSURE CORRIDOR
AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

- NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS.=

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：张怡驰、曹越男  签发：董 林  2026 年 02 月 02 日 18 时
“菲蒂娅”向东南方向移动

时  间: 2月2日14时（北京时）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “菲蒂娅”，FYTIA

中心位置: 南纬21.4度，东经52.4度

强度等级: 强热带风暴

最大风力: 10级，26米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压: 990百帕

参考位置: “菲蒂娅”距离马达加斯加塔马塔夫东南方向约480公里

变化过程: “菲蒂娅”过去24小时，强度由7级增强至10级

预报结论: “菲蒂娅”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向东南方向移动，强度维持或略有加强。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年2月2日14时00分）