LOW - 吕宋岛以东98W - 16.7N 125.7E - 数值支持发展，未来路径扑朔迷离 - JMA:LPA

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 18Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 00Z维持LPA

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 16N 127E ALMOST STATIONARY.

2011.20W.Nesat

看EC跟GFS預報，太平洋副高將給西風槽和90W擠壓而斷裂成東西環，而東環副高在引導98W成主要力量，同時間東環會在低緯度西伸在98W南邊，對98W施加北向量，因此造成往北甚至往東北走的路徑。往後隨著90W消散和西風槽減弱，副高重新在98W北面加強西伸，引導98W轉向往西走。

個人認為這兩家或許有低估了西環副高對98W引導氣流的影響，在看探空圖時侯發現主體在日本的西環副高勢力仍然強橫，而正在華北通過的西風槽正愈趨平緩，顯示正逐漸減弱，打擊力度或許沒預期那麼大，因此西環對98W的西向引導仍存在，AI預測進南海也不是沒根據

p010-536

2011.20W.Nesat 发表于 2025-7-1 11:41
看EC跟GFS預報，太平洋副高都給西風槽和90W擠壓而斷裂成東西環，而東環副高在引導98W成主要力量，同時間東 ...

最好多發這類分析帖子

pocketbox

As of 8:00 AM today, 01 July 2025, the Low Pressure area (LPA 6h) still being monitored inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and has a "MEDIUM" potential to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.

All are advised to monitor updates from DOST-PAGASA.

红豆棒冰冰

今天上午ASCAT风场扫描

lawman

高空反氣旋會在未來一兩日覆蓋中國東南部，並為華南帶來酷熱的天氣。預料一道廣闊低壓槽會在未來數日於南海中至北部徘徊，廣東沿岸有幾陣驟雨。此外，現時位於菲律賓以東海域的低壓區正為該區帶來不穩定天氣，其隨後發展和路徑存在變數。

Bunn

JMA +24hr TD

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 010600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS 010600Z-020600ZJUL2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.8N 127.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 126.8E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEGAZPI. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION. A RECENT 010147Z
ASCAT-C PASS SHOWS TURNING IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, CONTINUING TO
SHOW A MORE DEFINED CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW LEVEL VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30-31 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH A LOW LIKELIHOOD OF
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
...
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 00Z继续预报3天内成台，随后逐渐北上，近距离掠过长三角沿海，最终登陆辽宁，巅峰约928百帕