MEDIUM - 波纳佩岛以西90W - 7.5N 153.3E - 数值看好强度 - JMA:GW

Shinphoon

Shinphoon 发表于 2026-4-8 16:26
CMA 0408 00Z 北太平洋形势分析图

我们还属于理论水平很入门的气爱，经验颇少，不好意思...

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GFS 06Z继续预报2天内成台，随后在129E附近转向北上，巅峰约930百帕

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SSD 12Z分析维持T1.5

TXPQ22 KNES 081209
TCSWNP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)
B.  08/1130Z
C.  9.2N
D.  152.9E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/PRXY
H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT ARE 1.5
ALSO. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER LOCATION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...ZENG

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JTWC 12Z分析T1.0

TPPN10 PGTW 081221
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (SE OF GUAM)
B. 08/1130Z
C. 8.80N
D. 153.40E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .3 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.0.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   THOMPSON

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JMA 12Z发布GW，首报上望80kt不封顶

WTPQ50 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN  081200UTC 08.3N 154.2E FAIR
MOVE  ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES  1004HPA
MXWD  030KT
GUST  045KT
FORECAST
24HF  091200UTC 08.5N 151.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE  W 06KT
PRES  998HPA
MXWD  035KT
GUST  050KT
48HF  101200UTC 09.1N 150.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE  WNW SLOWLY
PRES  990HPA
MXWD  045KT
GUST  065KT
72HF  111200UTC 09.5N 149.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE  ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES  980HPA
MXWD  055KT
GUST  080KT
96HF  121200UTC 10.6N 147.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE  WNW 06KT
PRES  965HPA
MXWD  070KT
GUST  100KT
120HF 131200UTC 11.9N 144.2E 240NM 70%
MOVE  WNW 08KT
PRES  955HPA
MXWD  080KT
GUST  115KT =

Enceladus

中心开始构建稳定对流

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ECMWF 06Z系集

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今天晚间ASCAT风场扫描

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As of 8:00 PM today, 08 April 2026, the Tropical Depression (formerly LPA 04a) is being monitored within the monitoring domain (TCID) of PAGASA.
All are advised to monitor updates from DOST-PAGASA.