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本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-2-1 23:00 编辑
WTXS31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 20.4S 50.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 50.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 21.4S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.5S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.2S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 23.9S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 25.0S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 27.2S 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 50.7E.
01FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 011200Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
020300Z AND 021500Z.
//
NNNN
- WDXS31 PGTW 011500
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR
- 007//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 20.4S 50.3E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 182 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO,
- MADAGASCAR
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
- CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FYTIA) WITH A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
- CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AFTER ITS RECENT TREK THROUGH CENTRAL
- MADAGASCAR. PERSISTENT CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED DIRECTLY
- OVER THE LLCC, FULLY OBSCURING THE WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
- CIRCULATION. CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS ALSO BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE
- LAST FEW HOURS, EXTENDING DIRECTLY INTO THE NORTHERN AND
- SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS. ALOFT, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS AIDED IN
- THE SYSTEMS RE-CONSOLIDATION IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN AFTER
- TRAVERSING OVER THE ANKARATRA MOUNTAINS 12 HOURS AGO. ENVIRONMENTAL
- CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER OPEN WATER, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
- TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 28-29 C, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BETWEEN
- 10-15 KTS, AND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD EXHAUST. THE
- INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON
- ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
- ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AGENCY DVORAK
- ESTIMATES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
- RIDGE (NER) CENTERED DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 011053Z
- CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 010900Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 42 KTS AT 011100Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 38 KTS AT 011003Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 38 KTS AT 011130Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
- VWS: 10-15 KTS
- SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 19S IS FORECASTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
- THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BETWEEN TAU 0 AND
- TAU 12, THE CYCLONE WILL BE STEERED BY THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
- THE NER CENTERED DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH. FOLLOWING TAU 12, THE SPEED
- OF APPROACH WILL SLOW DURING A STEERING HAND-OFF TO A SUBTROPICAL
- RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 18, THE STR TO
- THE SOUTHEAST WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHWEST, BECOMING THE
- PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECASTED
- SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. FROM TAU 18 UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST
- PERIOD, TC 19S WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE
- WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AS THE
- SYSTEM BEGINS SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 60. FOLLOWING TAU 60,
- TC FYTIA WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH AN EQUATORWARD EXTENDING
- LONGWAVE TROUGH, BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE
- WESTERLIES INTO TAU 96. REGARDING INTENSITY, TC 19S IS FORECASTED
- TO MODERATELY INTENSIFY TO 55 KTS BY TAU 24 AS ENVIRONMENTAL
- CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY FAVORABLE. FOLLOWING TAU 24, VWS IS
- FORECASTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 20 KTS AS DRY AIR BEGINS WRAPPING
- AROUND THE CYCLONES NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. FOLLOWING TAU 24, A
- WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
- HOSTILE, WITH UNFAVORABLE VWS (25 KTS AND ABOVE) AT TAU 36 AND
- AMPLIFYING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE SYSTEMS CENTRAL VORTEX. AS
- THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
- BETWEEN TAU 60 AND TAU 96, TC 19S IS FORECASTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
- TO 40 KTS UNTIL SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 96.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND ARTIFICIAL
- INTELLIGENCE (AI) MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN VERY GOOD
- AGREEMENT THROUGH THE 96 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A CROSS-TRACK
- SPREAD OF 41 NM AT TAU 36. FOLLOWING TAU 36, SLIGHT TRACK
- VARIATIONS ARE OBSERVED WITH GALWEM AND UKMET DETERMINISTIC
- SOLUTIONS DUE TO THE EXPECTED STEERING MECHANISM HAND-OFF, HOWEVER,
- ALL JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS REALIGN BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96,
- ILLUSTRATED BY A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 67 NM BY THE END OF THE
- FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN PLACED WITH HIGH
- CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AND ALIGNED CLOSELY
- WITH THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. REGARDING INTENSITY, JTWC
- INTENSITY CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND ALIGN
- OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, CHARACTERIZING 15 KTS IN INTENSITY SPREAD
- AT TAU 24, WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION MAINTAINING LOWER
- VALUES AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SOLUTIONS ILLUSTRATING HIGHER
- VALUES NEAR A MAXIMUM OF 60 KTS. FOLLOWING TAU 12, MOST JTWC
- INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING PHASE, WITH
- THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC, WHICH SHOWS A PERIOD OF
- RE-INTENSIFICATION DURING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. THEREFORE, THE
- JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ALIGNED CLOSELY TO THE MULTI-MODEL
- INTENSITY CONSENSUS, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE INTENSITY
- FORECAST AND REFLECTS THE GRADUAL WEAKENING PHASE THROUGH A LARGELY
- UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TOWARD THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
- TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
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楼主: yhh
发表于 2026-2-1 12:34
发表于 2026-2-1 14:30
