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本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2025-11-22 14:15 编辑
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0611 UTC 22/11/2025
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 11.9S
Longitude: 131.0E
Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (257 deg)
Speed of Movement: 5 knots (8 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots (150 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots (205 km/h)
Central Pressure: 961 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm (85 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (15 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS STT:D1.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm (150 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 22/1200: 12.1S 130.5E: 025 (040): 080 (150): 962
+12: 22/1800: 12.4S 130.1E: 030 (055): 085 (155): 957
+18: 23/0000: 12.6S 129.6E: 040 (075): 090 (165): 952
+24: 23/0600: 12.8S 129.2E: 045 (080): 090 (165): 952
+36: 23/1800: 13.1S 128.5E: 060 (115): 090 (165): 952
+48: 24/0600: 13.3S 127.6E: 075 (140): 090 (165): 952
+60: 24/1800: 13.3S 126.8E: 090 (170): 070 (130): 970
+72: 25/0600: 13.3S 126.1E: 105 (190): 045 (085): 988
+96: 26/0600: 13.6S 125.2E: 155 (290): 030 (055): 996
+120: 27/0600: : : :
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina continues to develop, currently a category 3
system at 80 knot intensity. Motion has generally been towards the west
southwest today, although recently Fina has tracked slightly to the west
northwest, and it is crossing the far south of Melville Island. Position is
good based on Darwin radar tracking.
Intensity of 80 knots is based on the Darwin doppler radar and objective
guidance. An eye has appeared on satellite imagery, and DT has averaged 5.5 for
the past 3 hours (LG eye surrounded by W). MET is 5.0 with a D+ trend, PAT
adjusted to 5.5. FT/CI 5.5, however intensity is held lower based on radar
presentation.
Latest available CIMSS objective guidance (1-min winds) accessed at 0500 UTC:
ADT 82 knots, AiDT 80 knots, DPRINT 79 knots. DMINT and SATCON have not updated
since earlier in the day. There are no surface observations near the core of
Fina, but gales were observed earlier today in the periphery of the system.
Due to the recent west northwesterly motion, Fina is slightly north of earlier
forecast tracks, which does reduce the risk of the destructive core directly
impacting Darwin. Guidance is generally consistent in Fina returning to a more
southwesterly track this evening and into Sunday, and so the longer term
forecast remains similar. Fina should track over water in the Timor Sea on
Sunday and towards the northern parts of Western Australia early next week.
Latest available CIMSS shear analysis was for 03UTC when it was analysed
northerly at only around 12 knots. Models indicate shear is likely to stay low
during Saturday night and Sunday. This, coupled with other supporting factors
including warm SST, outflow to the southwest and sufficient low-level moisture,
mean that Fina is expected to strengthen further, and is forecast to reach
category 4 intensity on Sunday, when it will be in the southern Timor Sea.
Drier air and increasing vertical shear from Monday onwards are expected to
weaken the system. It may impact the north Kimberley coast of Western Australia
as a tropical cyclone, or weaken while still over water.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/1330 UTC.
IDD20150
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: Transmitters serving the Darwin region and Tiwi Islands are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 29
Issued at 3:32 pm ACST [2:02 pm AWST] on Saturday 22 November 2025
Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina, Category 3, to pass just north of Darwin this evening. Darwin to experience rapid increase in winds this afternoon and evening.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
The Tiwi Islands and Point Stuart to Wadeye. This includes Darwin, Pirlangimpi, Milikapiti, Wurrumiyanga and Wadeye.
Watch Zone
From Wadeye (NT) to Troughton Island (WA) including Kalumburu (WA).
Cancelled Zone
None.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina 02U at 3:30 pm ACST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 150 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 205 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 11.9 degrees South 131.0 degrees East, estimated to be 60 kilometres north of Darwin and 40 kilometres east southeast of Wurrumiyanga.
Movement: west southwest at 8 kilometres per hour.
Darwin radar shows Fina close to the south coast of Melville Island while satellite imagery shows Fina continues to intensified. Based on Fina's forecast west southwest track, the very destructive core will to pass just north of Darwin this evening.
After passing Darwin, Fina is forecast to maintain severe tropical cyclone intensity on Sunday and into Monday as it moves through the southern Timor Sea, and then start weakening during Monday or Tuesday near the Kimberley coast.
Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 205 km/h are occurring along the south coast of Melville Island, extending to Bathhurst Island this evening with a chance of reaching Wurrumiyanga this evening. Very destructive wind gusts are likely about exposed coastal sites northeast of Darwin (including Gunn Point and Cape Hotham) but the risk at Darwin is assessed as low.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/h are likely to extend west over southern parts of the Tiwi islands, including Wurrumiyanga this afternoon. Destructive gusts are expected to extend to the Darwin region in the next three hours and possibly to Dundee Beach tonight.
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring over Melville Island, adjacent Bathurst Island and from Darwin northeast to Point Stuart. Gales are expected to extend further west to the remainder of the Tiwi Islands this afternoon. Gales may extend southwest to Dundee Beach tonight, Daly River Mouth early Sunday, and if Fina takes a more southerly track, gales could extend south to Wadeye during Sunday.
Later Sunday or on Monday, GALES may extend to coastal parts of the north Kimberley in WA, from Kalumburu to the WA/NT Border, but not including Wyndham or Kununurra.
HEAVY to LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over the Tiwi Islands and the mainland coast between Point Stuart and Dundee Beach, including Darwin, for the remainder of Saturday. The risk of HEAVY RAINFALL about coastal and adjacent inland areas will extend southwest to the Daly River Mouth overnight and on Sunday.
Coastal residents on the Tiwi Islands, and between Cape Hotham and Warruwi are specifically warned that tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with LARGE WAVES and MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.
Recommended Action:
NTES advises people in the path of the dangerous cyclone about southern Melville Island and Cape Hotham to Point Stuart, should stay calm and remain in a secure shelter while the destructive winds continue. Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone - destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any time. Heed the advice and follow the instructions of Emergency Services personnel and local authorities.
NTES advises people on the Tiwi Islands, and elsewhere between Daly River Mouth to Cape Don, including Darwin, should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place. Outside property, including boats, playground equipment, chairs and tables should be secured.
NTES advises people between Daly River Mouth and Wadeye should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property, using available daylight hours.
NTES advises people elsewhere near and between Wadeye and the NT/WA Border should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Secure NT website (https://securent.nt.gov.au). For emergency assistance call the Northern Territory Emergency Service (NTES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).
Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 4:30 pm ACST Saturday 22 November.
This advice is available on telephone at 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone
| | Time (ACST) | Intensity Category | Latitude
(decimal deg.) | Longitude
(decimal deg.) | Estimated Position
Accuracy (km) | | 0hr | 4 pm November 22 | 3 | 11.9S | 131.0E | 20 | | +6hr | 10 pm November 22 | 3 | 12.1S | 130.5E | 40 | | +12hr | 4 am November 23 | 3 | 12.4S | 130.1E | 55 | | +18hr | 10 am November 23 | 4 | 12.6S | 129.6E | 75 | | +24hr | 4 pm November 23 | 4 | 12.8S | 129.2E | 80 | | +36hr | 4 am November 24 | 4 | 13.1S | 128.5E | 115 | | +48hr | 4 pm November 24 | 4 | 13.3S | 127.6E | 140 | | +60hr | 4 am November 25 | 3 | 13.3S | 126.8E | 170 | | +72hr | 4 pm November 25 | 1 | 13.3S | 126.1E | 190 |
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楼主: 大水台6
发表于 2025-11-22 13:05
