牙买加东南四级飓风“梅利莎”(13L.Melissa) - 快速加强，强势威胁牙买加 - NHC:120KT

9916-Bart

最近一次穿心968.2

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹越男  签发：许映龙  2025 年 10 月 26 日 10 时
“索尼娅”向偏西方向移动

时        间:     26日08（北京时）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “索尼娅”， SONIA

中心位置:    北纬13.5度，西经119.1度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    9级，23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压:    1001百帕

参考位置:   距墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角西南方向约1425公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“索尼娅”由7级增强到9级

预报结论:   “索尼娅”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐增强



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年10月26日08时00分）

“梅利莎”加强为二级飓风

时        间:     26日08时（北京时）

海        域:    北大西洋

命        名:    “梅利莎”， MELISSA

中心位置:    北纬16.5度，西经75.6度

强度等级:    二级飓风

最大风力:    15级，47米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级

中心气压:    960百帕

参考位置:   距离海地太子港西偏南方向约420公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“梅利莎”由10级增强到15级

预报结论:   “梅利莎”将以每小时5公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐增强



图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年10月26日08时00分）

9916-Bart

FL出C4风旗了

ygsj24

448
WTNT43 KNHC 260252
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Melissa is continuing rapid intensification. The Air
Force aircraft reported flight-level winds of 115 kt in the north
eyewall of the 17 nm wide eye at 700 mb, along with a central
pressure of 967 mb.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is
increased to 100 kt, making Melissa a category 3 major hurricane.

The initial motion is now just south of due west or 265/3 kt.  A
low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Melissa should steer the
hurricane generally westward at a slow forward speed during the
next 36 h or so. After that time, a deep-layer mid-latitude trough
moving through the southeastern United States will break the ridge,
with Melissa expected to turn northward and then recurve into the
mid-latitude southwesterly flow. The guidance is fairly well
clustered during the first 72 h, with Melissa expected to pass over
Jamaica in 48-60 h and then be near or over eastern Cuba around 72
h. Beyond 72 h, there is some speed and direction spread, but
overall the guidance is in good agreement that Melissa should
accelerate northeastward through portions of the Bahamas into the
Atlantic.  The new forecast track is a little to the south and west
of the previous track through 60 h and similar to the previous
track after that time.

Rapid intensification is expected to continue for the next 24-36 h,
and it is possible that during this time Melissa could intensify
even faster than what is currently forecast.  The regional hurricane
models show the cyclone peaking before it reaches Jamaica, and
based on this the new forecast keeps a 48-h peak intensity of 140
kt. Afterwards, some inner-core oscillations such as eyewall
replacement cycles could lead to fluctuations in intensity before
Melissa's first landfall in Jamaica. It must be noted that there is
very little practical difference in the overall impacts of a
Category 4 or 5 landfall, and Melissa is expected to be at least
that intensity when it moves over Jamaica.  Melissa should weaken
as it interacts with Jamaica and Cuba, although it is still forecast
to be a major hurricane when it nears Cuba. A faster weakening
should occur after passing Cuba when the cyclone encounters strong
shear over the southwestern Atlantic.

This remains a very serious situation, in terms of catastrophic
rainfall, wind, and storm surge hazards for Jamaica, and
preparations should be rushed to completion in the area currently
under a Hurricane Warning.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica:  Seek shelter now.  A multi-day period of damaging
winds and heavy rainfall have begun and will cause catastrophic and
life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides.  Extensive
infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication
outages, and isolation of communities are expected.
Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
southern coast early next week.

2. Haiti:  Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti into early next
week, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and isolation
of communities.  Strong winds could last for a day or more over the
Tiburon peninsula.

3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall through the middle of next
week could produce catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides in southern portions of the country.

4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos:
Monitor Melissa closely.  There is an increasing risk of a
significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the
middle of next week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides is increasing. A Hurricane Watch is in
effect for portions of eastern Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 16.4N  75.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
12H  26/1200Z 16.4N  76.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
24H  27/0000Z 16.4N  77.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
36H  27/1200Z 16.6N  77.5W  135 KT 155 MPH
48H  28/0000Z 17.2N  77.7W  140 KT 160 MPH
60H  28/1200Z 18.0N  77.2W  120 KT 140 MPH...INLAND JAMAICA
72H  29/0000Z 19.4N  76.1W  105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER
96H  30/0000Z 23.0N  72.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  31/0000Z 28.0N  68.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

bucks

delete

hei

氣壓已經急跌到959mb以下

hei

觀雲趣 发表于 2025-10-26 08:43
https://metservice.gov.jm/daily-forecast/radar/

很可怕的底層

pocketbox

WTNT33 KNHC 260533
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...MELISSA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 76.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the
southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 76.1 West. Melissa is
moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow
westward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a turn to
the north and northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or over
Jamaica through Tuesday, and it could be near or over eastern Cuba
by the middle of the week.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Melissa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Continued rapid intensification is forecast
during the next day or so, followed by fluctuations in intensity.
Melissa is expected to be a major hurricane when making landfall in
Jamaica Monday night or Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is
958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely beginning in Jamaica,
with hurricane conditions expected by Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area in Haiti today. The
potential for hurricane conditions in the watch area in Haiti
have diminished for today, but there is still a possibility of
hurricane conditions occurring there on Tuesday. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the watch area in eastern Cuba on Tuesday
into Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 30
inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica into
Wednesday, with local maxima of 40 inches possible.  Additional
heavy rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday; uncertainty at that time
range precludes exact storm totals.  Catastrophic flash flooding and
landslides are probable across portions of southern Hispaniola and
Jamaica.

For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with local
amounts to 18 inches, are expected into Wednesday resulting in
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday; uncertainty at that time range
precludes exact storm totals.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Life-threatening storm surge is becoming more likely
along the south coast of Jamaica during the next few days.  Peak
storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level,
near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall.
This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the
southeast coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during
the next several days.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Hagen

ygsj24

000
WTNT43 KNHC 260856
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Melissa is in the midst of a period of extreme rapid
intensification.  Its intensity has increased by 50 kt over the
past 24 hours and 35 kt over the past 12 hours.  Data from the last
pass of an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft through the
eye just before 1 AM EDT indicated that maximum winds had increased
to 105 kt and the pressure had fallen to 958 mb.  The eye has been
clearing out and warming since that time in infrared satellite
imagery, with the Dvorak data-T numbers from both TAFB and SAB up to
T6.0/115 kt at 2 AM EDT.  The intensity is estimated to be 120 kt at
the time of this advisory based on the latest AiDT and DPRINT
estimates.

The center had taken a west-southwestward jog over the past 12
hours, but more recent frames of satellite images suggest it is now
moving westward (270 degrees) at 4 kt.  There is very little change
in the forecast reasoning or the forecast track itself.  Over the
next 48 hours, Melissa is expected to make a slow westward to
north-northeastward recurvature just to the south of Jamaica, likely
reaching the island's southern coast Tuesday morning.  An
acceleration toward the northeast is expected after 48 hours when
Melissa is picked up by a trough moving off the southeast coast of
the United States, and this motion should bring the center across
southeastern Cuba late Tuesday or early Wednesday, across the
southeastern Bahamas later on Wednesday, and then reaching the
vicinity of Bermuda on Friday.

It's assumed that the current period of rapid intensification will
continue, and Melissa could reach category 5 intensity by tonight.
An eyewall replacement would be likely to occur at some point over
the next couple of days, which would cause a decrease or at least
fluctuations in Melissa's intensity after 24 hours.  Regardless,
Melissa is forecast to reach Jamaica as a category 4 hurricane,
which will only compound any damages caused by heavy rainfall and
flooding over the next 2 days.  Melissa is likely to weaken a
little during its passage across Jamaica, but intensity guidance
suggests that it will likely still be a major hurricane when it
reaches southeastern Cuba late Tuesday and the southeastern Bahamas
on Wednesday.  Stronger shear should cause the storm to weaken
below major hurricane strength on days 4 and 5 while over the
western Atlantic.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica:  Seek shelter now.  Damaging winds and heavy rainfall
today and on Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening
flash flooding and numerous landslides before the strongest winds
arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning.  Extensive infrastructural
damage, long-duration power and communication outages, and isolation
of communities are expected. Life-threatening storm surge is likely
along portions of the southern coast Monday night and Tuesday
morning.

2. Haiti:  Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti through midweek,
likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and isolation
of communities. Although winds are temporarily decreasing on the
Tiburon peninsula, they could increase again across much of western
Haiti on Tuesday.

3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall through midweek could produce
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern
portions of the country.

4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos:
Monitor Melissa closely.  There is an increasing risk of a
significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the
middle of the week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides is increasing. A Hurricane Watch is in
effect for portions of eastern Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 16.3N  76.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
12H  26/1800Z 16.3N  76.8W  130 KT 150 MPH
24H  27/0600Z 16.5N  77.5W  140 KT 160 MPH
36H  27/1800Z 16.8N  77.9W  140 KT 160 MPH
48H  28/0600Z 17.5N  77.7W  135 KT 155 MPH...JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA
60H  28/1800Z 18.7N  76.8W  120 KT 140 MPH...JUST NORTH OF JAMAICA
72H  29/0600Z 20.5N  75.4W  105 KT 120 MPH...OVER SE CUBA
96H  30/0600Z 24.8N  71.6W   95 KT 110 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  31/0600Z 30.3N  66.2W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：张怡驰、曹越男  签发：许映龙  2025 年 10 月 26 日 18 时
“索尼娅”向偏西方向移动

时        间:     26日14时（北京时）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “索尼娅”， SONIA

中心位置:    北纬13.4度，西经119.4度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    9级，23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压:    1001百帕

参考位置:   距墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角西南方向约1448公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“索尼娅”由8级增强到9级

预报结论:   “索尼娅”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐增强



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年10月26日14时00分）

“梅利莎”加强为三级飓风

时        间:     26日14时（北京时）

海        域:    北大西洋

命        名:    “梅利莎”， MELISSA

中心位置:    北纬16.3度，西经76.1度

强度等级:    三级飓风

最大风力:    17级，56.6米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级

中心气压:    958百帕

参考位置:   距离海地太子港西偏南方向约472公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“梅利莎”由11级增强到17级

预报结论:   “梅利莎”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度逐渐增强



图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年10月26日14时00分）