2522号热带气旋“夏浪”(28W.Halong)机构发报专帖

ygsj24 · 发表于 2025-10-6 16:19

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-10-6 16:30 编辑

WTPN32 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 28W (HALONG) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 28W (HALONG) WARNING NR 008
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 28W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 25.7N 140.9E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7N 140.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 26.4N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 27.3N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 28.6N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 30.3N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 32.9N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 34.0N 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 140.5E.
06OCT25. TYPHOON 28W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 579 NM SOUTH
OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060600Z IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 27W (MATMO)
FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW).//
NNNN

ygsj24 · 发表于 2025-10-6 17:12

WDPN32 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (HALONG) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 25.7N 140.9E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 579 NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 06 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TYPHOON 28W
(HALONG) WITH A DEVELOPING EYE AND DEFINED CIRRUS FILAMENTS
EXTENDING POLEWARD. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS THE EYE FEATURE HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 4
HOURS OR SO. A 060608Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A COMPACT
CORE OF COLD CLOUD TOPS AND THE 37 GHZ VERSION OF THE SAME IMAGE
SHOWS A SYMMETRIC MICROWAVE EYE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 28W IS IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE TIMELY
GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE FROM A 052358Z METOP-C ASCAT
IMAGE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 67 KTS AT 060340Z
CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 060600Z
CIMSS AIDT: 60 KTS AT 060600Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 52 KTS AT 060612Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 28W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD, ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST THROUGH
TAU 36. NEAR TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD IT
ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. AFTER TAU 48, 28W IS FORECAST TO TRACK OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING TRACK SPEEDS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AT THE TIMING OF CPA TO YOKOSUKA
COMPARED TO THE PERVIOUS FORECAST. REGARDING INTENSITY, 28W IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO A PEAK OF
AROUND 130 KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHLY
FAVORABLE, PRIME FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI). AFTER TAU 48,
WESTERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE, CAUSING 28W TO WEAKEN AS IT QUICKLY
TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST
TO BEGIN AROUND TAU 72 AND COMPLETE NEAR TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 150 NM AT TAU 48 AND 215 NM AT TAU 72.
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS RATHER SIGNIFICANT THOUGH, MOSTLY ATTRIBUTED
TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BEING MUCH SLOWER THAN THE REMAINDER OF
GUIDANCE. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE AGREES ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48 WITH MANY
RI AIDS TRIGGERING. MESOSCALE MODEL PEAK INTENSITIES RANGE FROM 130
KTS (HAFS-A) TO 140 KTS (COAMPS-TC) AT TAU 48. ALL MODELS ALSO
AGREE ON WEAKENING AFTER TAU 60. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
PLACED IN-LINE WITH HAFS-A THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE RI
RATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

yhh · 发表于 2025-10-6 17:18

本帖最后由 yhh 于 2025-10-6 17:35 编辑

ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 060900
CCAA 06090 99398 11165
HALONG 22258 11406 11334 235// 93005
MATMO 21225 11064 12214 2//// 93108
NNNN

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 060900
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STS HALONG 2522 (2522) INITIAL TIME 060900 UTC
00HR 25.8N 140.6E 980HPA 30M/S
30KTS WINDS 280KM NORTHEAST
300KM SOUTHEAST
180KM SOUTHWEST
230KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 90KM NORTHEAST
70KM SOUTHEAST
50KM SOUTHWEST
70KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 16KM/H
P+12HR 26.6N 138.9E 955HPA 42M/S
P+24HR 27.6N 137.2E 945HPA 48M/S
P+36HR 29.1N 136.4E 935HPA 52M/S
P+48HR 30.9N 137.3E 930HPA 55M/S
P+60HR 32.4N 139.6E 930HPA 55M/S
P+72HR 33.1N 143.3E 940HPA 50M/S
P+96HR 34.0N 152.3E 965HPA 38M/S
P+120HR 34.7N 164.4E 982HPA 28M/S=
NNNN

ygsj24 · 发表于 2025-10-6 17:41

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-10-6 17:45 编辑

台風第22号(ハーロン)
2025年10月06日18時45分発表

06日18時の実況
種別台風
大きさ -
強さ -
存在地域父島の南西約220km
中心位置北緯25度55分 (25.9度)
東経140度30分 (140.5度)
進行方向、速さ北西 15 km/h (7 kt)
中心気圧 985 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 30 m/s (60 kt)
最大瞬間風速 45 m/s (85 kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域全域 55 km (30 NM)
15m/s以上の強風域東側 330 km (180 NM)
西側 220 km (120 NM)

07日18時の予報
種別台風
強さ強い
存在地域日本の南
予報円の中心北緯27度40分 (27.7度)
東経137度20分 (137.3度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 15 km/h (8 kt)
中心気圧 975 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 35 m/s (70 kt)
最大瞬間風速 50 m/s (100 kt)
予報円の半径 95 km (50 NM)
暴風警戒域全域 185 km (100 NM)

08日15時の予報
種別台風
強さ強い
存在地域日本の南
予報円の中心北緯30度00分 (30.0度)
東経135度55分 (135.9度)
進行方向、速さ北北西 15 km/h (8 kt)
中心気圧 960 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 40 m/s (80 kt)
最大瞬間風速 60 m/s (115 kt)
予報円の半径 155 km (85 NM)
暴風警戒域全域 290 km (155 NM)

09日15時の予報
種別台風
強さ非常に強い
存在地域伊豆諸島近海
予報円の中心北緯32度35分 (32.6度)
東経139度50分 (139.8度)
進行方向、速さ北東 20 km/h (11 kt)
中心気圧 950 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 45 m/s (90 kt)
最大瞬間風速 65 m/s (130 kt)
予報円の半径 300 km (160 NM)
暴風警戒域全域 440 km (240 NM)

10日15時の予報
種別台風
強さ強い
存在地域日本の東
予報円の中心北緯33度25分 (33.4度)
東経148度25分 (148.4度)
進行方向、速さ東 35 km/h (18 kt)
中心気圧 970 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 35 m/s (70 kt)
最大瞬間風速 50 m/s (100 kt)
予報円の半径 370 km (200 NM)
暴風警戒域全域 540 km (290 NM)

11日15時の予報
種別台風
強さ -
存在地域日本のはるか東
予報円の中心北緯34度10分 (34.2度)
東経161度35分 (161.6度)
進行方向、速さ東 50 km/h (27 kt)
中心気圧 980 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 30 m/s (60 kt)
最大瞬間風速 45 m/s (85 kt)
予報円の半径 460 km (250 NM)
暴風警戒域全域 700 km (370 NM)

yhh · 发表于 2025-10-6 17:47

本帖最后由 yhh 于 2025-10-6 17:50 编辑

台风公报
预报：刘达签发：张玲 2025 年 10 月 06 日 18 时
“麦德姆”减弱为热带低压
“夏浪”加强为强热带风暴级

一、中央气象台10月6日18时解除台风蓝色预警：

今年第21号台风“麦德姆”（热带风暴级）已于今天（6日）下午在中越交界附近地区减弱为热带低压，下午5点钟其中心位于越南高平省境内，就是北纬22.5度、东经106.4度，最大风力有7级（15米/秒），中心最低气压为1000百帕。

预计，“麦德姆”将以每小时20-25公里的速度继续向西偏北方向移动，强度将继续减弱。

大风预报：6日20时至7日20时，北部湾、广西西部和南部、云南东部、雷州半岛、广东西部沿海将有5-6级、部分海域和地区7级的大风。

降水预报：6日20时至7日20时，广西西部、贵州西部、云南东部和南部等地有大到暴雨，部分地区有大暴雨（100～150毫米）；上述部分地区伴有短时强降水，最大小时降雨量20～40毫米，局地可超过50毫米。

二、“夏浪”加强为强热带风暴级

今年第22号台风“夏浪”已于今天（6日）上午加强为强热带风暴级，下午5点钟其中心位于日本九州岛东南方向约1230公里的西北太平洋洋面上，就是北纬25.8度、东经140.6度，中心附近最大风力有11级（30米/秒），中心最低气压为980百帕，七级风圈半径180-300公里，十级风圈半径50-90公里。

预计，“夏浪”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西偏北方向移动，强度将继续增强。未来“夏浪”对我国海域无影响。

ygsj24 · 发表于 2025-10-6 20:47

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-10-6 20:50 编辑

台風第22号(ハーロン)
2025年10月06日21時50分発表

06日21時の実況
種別台風
大きさ -
強さ -
存在地域父島の西南西約240km
中心位置北緯26度05分 (26.1度)
東経140度05分 (140.1度)
進行方向、速さ北西 15 km/h (7 kt)
中心気圧 985 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 30 m/s (60 kt)
最大瞬間風速 45 m/s (85 kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域全域 55 km (30 NM)
15m/s以上の強風域東側 330 km (180 NM)
西側 220 km (120 NM)

07日21時の予報
種別台風
強さ強い
存在地域日本の南
予報円の中心北緯28度00分 (28.0度)
東経136度55分 (136.9度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 15 km/h (9 kt)
中心気圧 960 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 40 m/s (80 kt)
最大瞬間風速 60 m/s (115 kt)
予報円の半径 95 km (50 NM)
暴風警戒域全域 200 km (110 NM)

08日21時の予報
種別台風
強さ非常に強い
存在地域日本の南
予報円の中心北緯31度05分 (31.1度)
東経137度30分 (137.5度)
進行方向、速さ北 15 km/h (8 kt)
中心気圧 955 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 45 m/s (85 kt)
最大瞬間風速 60 m/s (120 kt)
予報円の半径 185 km (100 NM)
暴風警戒域全域 330 km (180 NM)

09日21時の予報
種別台風
強さ非常に強い
存在地域日本の東
予報円の中心北緯33度00分 (33.0度)
東経143度30分 (143.5度)
進行方向、速さ東北東 25 km/h (14 kt)
中心気圧 950 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 45 m/s (90 kt)
最大瞬間風速 65 m/s (130 kt)
予報円の半径 260 km (140 NM)
暴風警戒域全域 430 km (230 NM)

10日21時の予報
種別台風
強さ強い
存在地域日本のはるか東
予報円の中心北緯33度55分 (33.9度)
東経155度10分 (155.2度)
進行方向、速さ東 45 km/h (24 kt)
中心気圧 970 hPa
中心付近の最大風速 35 m/s (70 kt)
最大瞬間風速 50 m/s (100 kt)
予報円の半径 370 km (200 NM)
暴風警戒域全域 540 km (290 NM)

11日21時の予報
種別温帯低気圧
強さ -
存在地域アリューシャンの南
予報円の中心北緯37度25分 (37.4度)
東経171度25分 (171.4度)
進行方向、速さ東北東 65 km/h (34 kt)
中心気圧 980 hPa
最大風速 30 m/s (60 kt)
最大瞬間風速 45 m/s (85 kt)
予報円の半径 460 km (250 NM)
暴風警戒域全域 700 km (370 NM)

yhh · 发表于 2025-10-6 20:54

本帖最后由 yhh 于 2025-10-6 21:10 编辑

ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 061200
CCAA 06120 99398 11165
MATMO 21228 11057 12204 2//// 93111
HALONG 22261 11401 12344 240// 93007
NNNN

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 061200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY HALONG 2522 (2522) INITIAL TIME 061200 UTC
00HR 26.1N 140.1E 975HPA 33M/S
30KTS WINDS 330KM NORTHEAST
300KM SOUTHEAST
180KM SOUTHWEST
230KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 110KM NORTHEAST
90KM SOUTHEAST
70KM SOUTHWEST
90KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 16KM/H
P+12HR 26.9N 138.5E 955HPA 42M/S
P+24HR 28.1N 137.0E 945HPA 48M/S
P+36HR 29.5N 136.6E 935HPA 52M/S
P+48HR 31.3N 138.2E 930HPA 55M/S
P+60HR 32.4N 140.6E 930HPA 55M/S
P+72HR 33.0N 144.5E 940HPA 50M/S
P+96HR 33.3N 155.5E 965HPA 38M/S=
NNNN

ygsj24 · 发表于 2025-10-6 21:02

No.22 HALONG KMA | Issued at(KST) : Mon, 6 Oct 2025, 22:00

Date(UTC)	Intensity		Maximum Sustained Wind(m/s)		Central Pressure (hPa)	Position		Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 15 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 25 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 70% probability(km)
Date(UTC)	Intensity		m/s	km/h	Central Pressure (hPa)	Lat (N)	Lon (E)	Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 15 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 25 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 70% probability(km)
Mon, 6 Oct 2025, 12:00 Analysis	Normal	2	29	104	980	26.1	140.1	WNW	15	270 [SW 170]	50 [SW 30]	-
Tue, 7 Oct 2025, 00:00 Forecast	Normal	2	32	115	975	26.9	138.3	WNW	16	280 [SW 180]	60 [SW 40]	50
Tue, 7 Oct 2025, 12:00 Forecast	Strong	3	37	133	965	28.0	136.8	NW	16	290 [SW 190]	70 [SW 50]	90
Wed, 8 Oct 2025, 00:00 Forecast	Strong	3	40	144	955	29.5	136.1	NNW	15	300 [SW 200]	80 [SW 60]	110
Wed, 8 Oct 2025, 12:00 Forecast	Strong	3	43	155	950	30.9	136.8	NNE	15	320 [WSW 220]	90 [WSW 70]	130
Thu, 9 Oct 2025, 12:00 Forecast	Strong	3	43	155	950	32.9	143.1	ENE	19	310 [WNW 210]	90 [WNW 60]	190
Fri, 10 Oct 2025, 12:00 Forecast	Strong	3	39	140	960	33.7	154.1	E	51	290 [NW 190]	70 [NW 40]	280
Sat, 11 Oct 2025, 12:00 Forecast	-	L	29	104	980	36.2	170.5	ENE	63			410

ygsj24 · 发表于 2025-10-6 21:12

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-10-6 21:15 编辑

中度颱風哈隆
編號第 22 號
國際命名 HALONG

現況
2025年10月06日20時
中心位置在北緯 26.1 度，東經 140.1 度
過去移動方向西北
過去移動時速 12公里
中心氣壓 970百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 33 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 43 公尺
七級風平均暴風半徑 180 公里
　西北側 210 公里東北側 210 公里
　西南側 140 公里東南側 160 公里
十級風平均暴風半徑 60 公里
　西北側 70 公里東北側 70 公里
　西南側 50 公里東南側 50 公里

預測
預測 6 小時平均移向移速為
西北西時速 17 公里
預測 10月07日02時
中心位置在北緯 26.5 度，東經 139.2 度
中心氣壓970百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 33 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 43 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 180 公里
十級風暴風半徑 60 公里
70%機率半徑 30 公里

預測 6-12 小時平均移向移速為
西北時速 16 公里
預測 10月07日08時
中心位置在北緯 27.0 度，東經 138.4 度
中心氣壓965百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 35 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 45 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 180 公里
十級風暴風半徑 60 公里
70%機率半徑 50 公里

預測 12-18 小時平均移向移速為
西北時速 16 公里
預測 10月07日14時
中心位置在北緯 27.5 度，東經 137.6 度
中心氣壓960百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 38 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 48 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 200 公里
十級風暴風半徑 70 公里
70%機率半徑 70 公里

預測 18-24 小時平均移向移速為
西北時速 16 公里
預測 10月07日20時
中心位置在北緯 28.1 度，東經 136.9 度
中心氣壓950百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 40 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 50 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 200 公里
十級風暴風半徑 70 公里
70%機率半徑 90 公里

預測 24-36 小時平均移向移速為
北北西時速 14 公里
預測 10月08日08時
中心位置在北緯 29.6 度，東經 136.5 度
中心氣壓945百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 43 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 53 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 200 公里
十級風暴風半徑 70 公里
70%機率半徑 120 公里

預測 36-48 小時平均移向移速為
北北東時速 18 公里
預測 10月08日20時
中心位置在北緯 31.3 度，東經 137.7 度
中心氣壓940百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 45 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 55 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 200 公里
十級風暴風半徑 70 公里
70%機率半徑 140 公里

預測 48-72 小時平均移向移速為
東北東時速 26 公里
預測 10月09日20時
中心位置在北緯 33.3 度，東經 143.8 度
中心氣壓940百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 45 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 55 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 200 公里
十級風暴風半徑 70 公里
70%機率半徑 220 公里

預測 72-96 小時平均移向移速為
東時速 46 公里
預測 10月10日20時
中心位置在北緯 33.8 度，東經 155.6 度
中心氣壓970百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 33 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 43 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 200 公里
十級風暴風半徑 70 公里
70%機率半徑 320 公里

預測 96-120 小時平均移向移速為
東北東時速 62 公里
預測 10月11日20時
中心位置在北緯 37.0 度，東經 171.5 度
中心氣壓980百帕
70%機率半徑 520 公里
預測 120 小時內變性為溫帶氣旋

yhh · 发表于 2025-10-6 22:15

WTPN32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 28W (HALONG) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 28W (HALONG) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 26.2N 140.0E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
   POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2N 140.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 27.1N 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.3N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 29.7N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 31.4N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 33.7N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 34.5N 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 26.4N 139.6E.
06OCT25. TYPHOON 28W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 546 NM SOUTH
OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061200Z IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 27W (MATMO) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW).//
NNNN

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