|
|
JTWC:REMAINS LOW
ABPW10 PGTW 010000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/010000Z-010600ZJUL2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.2N 134.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 127.4E, APPROXIMATELY 232 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEGAZPI. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH BUILDING CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, A RECENT
300028Z ASCAT-C PASS PORTRAYS THE SUSPECTED AREA TO BE A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD DUAL-CHANNEL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30-31 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS INDICATE LOW LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 21.4N
148.2E, APPROXIMATELY 504 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 301600Z AMSR2 89 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED
BY FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
CELL TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC IS THE MAIN CAUSE OF THE ELEVATED SHEAR
ON THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL CONTINUE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH MARGINAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
FORMATION OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2)//
NNNN
|
本帖子中包含更多资源
您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有账号？立即注册
×
|
楼主: ygsj24
发表于 2025-7-1 02:09
发表于 2025-7-1 03:51
