墨西哥西南一级飓风“弗洛茜”(06E.Flossie) - 沿岸西北行 - NHC:75KT

一只布拉万

新底层显示眼墙已基本形成

ygsj24

009
WTPZ31 KNHC 010544
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
1200 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025

...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENS SOME MORE OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 104.7W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo
* North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Flossie.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 104.7 West. Flossie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  This
general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of
days, with a gradual slowing in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast
during the next day or so, with weakening starting by late
Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals
of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches, across
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and
Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep
terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, overnight
through this afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 06Z分析维持T4.0

TXPZ28 KNES 010626
TCSENP
A.  06E (FLOSSIE)
B.  01/0600Z
C.  16.6N
D.  104.9W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T4.0/4.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...10/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.0 AFTER ADDING 0.5 FOR
WHITE BANDS. THE MET IS 4.0 BASED ON A RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 4.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...BERTALAN

ygsj24

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 010847
TCDEP1

Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
300 AM CST Tue Jul 01 2025

Flossie continues to strengthen early this morning, evident by an
expanding central dense overcast (CDO) over the low-level center of
the cyclone.  A couple recent scatterometer passes at 0337z and
0428z helped in locating the center underneath the CDO, and assisted
with the refinement of the 34 and 50 knot wind radii.  The latest
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates came in at T4.0/65 knots from
both SAB and TAFB. The objective intensity estimates ranged from 69
to 79 knots at 06z.  Based on a blend of these estimates, and taking
into account the improved satellite presentation during the past few
hours, the initial intensity has been raised to 75 knots for this
advisory.  

Flossie is heading toward the west-northwest or 300/09 knots. This
motion is expected to continue during the next several days with a
slight decrease in forward speed, as the cyclone is steered into a
weakness in the mid-level ridge to the northwest of the system. The
track forecast is very close to the previous advisory and is closely
aligned with a blend of the latest HCCA, TVCE, and FSSE consensus
aids as well as the latest EC-AIFS run.

The environment will remain very conducive for strengthening during
the next 24 to 36 hours, with warm sea surface temperatures of
28/29C, abundant mid-level moisture, and light vertical wind shear.
The latest SHIPS RI probabilities show a greater than 40 percent
chance of a 25-knot increase in 24 hours, and the official forecast
reflects this. Rapid weakening will then begin by 48 hours as
Flossie moves over progressively cooler water and begins to entrain
dry mid-level air.  The system is forecast to become a post-tropical
low by 72 hours and a remnant low at 96 hours. The intensity
forecast is on the high end of the intensity aids, closest to SHIPS
and NNIC.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Hurricane Flossie should bring locally heavy
rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero,  
Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. Life-threatening
flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in steep terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico, through today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 16.9N 105.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  01/1800Z 17.5N 106.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
24H  02/0600Z 18.4N 107.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
36H  02/1800Z 19.2N 109.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
48H  03/0600Z 20.0N 110.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
60H  03/1800Z 20.9N 111.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  04/0600Z 21.9N 112.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H  05/0600Z 23.7N 114.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/0600Z 24.0N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Jelsema