所罗门海五级强热带气旋“迈拉”(37U/30P.Maila) - 巴新十八年来首个命名热带气旋，在所罗门海回旋 - BoM:115KT JTWC:125KT

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IDQ20065
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 10:54 am EST on Wednesday 8 April 2026

At 10 am AEST Wednesday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila (Category 5) with
central pressure 932 hPa was located near latitude 9.0 south longitude 155.8
east, which is about 460 km west of Honiara and 950 km east of Port Moresby.

The cyclone is moving north northwest at 12 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila, 37U, is currently located over the Solomon Sea.
Steering influences are weak, and Maila is expected to remain slow-moving in
the Solomon Sea and well away from the Queensland coast during the next few
days.

Over the weekend, Maila is forecast to move into the Coral Sea and track
towards the Far North Queensland coast. It may cross the Cape York Peninsula
early next week.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5:00 pm AEST Wednesday 08 April.

---

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0117 UTC 08/04/2026
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila
Identifier: 37U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 9.0S
Longitude: 155.8E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: north northwest (334 deg)
Speed of Movement: 7 knots (12 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 110 knots (205 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 155 knots (285 km/h)
Central Pressure: 932 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/6.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:W1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  08/0600:  9.1S 155.7E:     025 (050):  100  (185):  941
+12:  08/1200:  9.1S 155.5E:     035 (070):  100  (185):  941
+18:  08/1800:  9.2S 155.2E:     045 (085):  100  (185):  942
+24:  09/0000:  9.2S 154.9E:     050 (095):  095  (175):  947
+36:  09/1200:  9.5S 154.0E:     070 (130):  090  (165):  954
+48:  10/0000: 10.0S 153.0E:     090 (165):  080  (150):  964
+60:  10/1200: 10.6S 151.7E:     100 (190):  070  (130):  973
+72:  11/0000: 11.5S 150.7E:     115 (215):  070  (130):  973
+96:  12/0000: 12.8S 148.2E:     140 (260):  065  (120):  976
+120: 13/0000: 13.5S 145.8E:     175 (330):  065  (120):  977
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila at 110 knots in the Solomon Sea.

Maila has moved slowly during the past several hours, with recent motion
towards the north-northwest. Position is based on animated EIR imagery with
good confidence, with a well-defined eye remaining evident. Maila has undergone
a period of rapid intensification, increasing by around 40 knots in the past 24
hours. Over the last few hours, however, Maila has shown some signs of slight
weakening, with narrowing of the cold dense overcast on the eastern side of the
system and brief elongation of the eye, suggesting short-term structural
fluctuations.

Intensity is assessed at 110 knots based on a synthesis of recent Dvorak
analysis and objective guidance.

Dvorak analysis at 2300 UTC was based on an eye pattern. A DG surround with an
eye adjustment of 0.5, with an OW eye and B surrounds, yields a DT of 5.0. MET
= 6.0 based on a developing 24-hour trend, and PT = 5.5. FT is set to 5.5 based
on PT, with CI is constrained to 6.5. Available objective guidance at 2300 UTC
(all 1-minute mean) includes ADT 127 knots, AiDT 114 knots, and DPRINT 109
knots. DMINT, MW sounders and SATCON were not available at this time.

Environmental conditions remain generally favourable, with a moist surrounding
atmosphere, good upper-level divergence, and moderate ENE vertical wind shear.
Some risk of upwelling exists given the slow motion. Guidance remains mixed,
with some solutions maintaining Maila as an intense cyclone until land
interaction with Papua New Guinea, while others weaken the system sooner due to
upwelling and moderate shear. Maila is forecast to weaken gradually during the
next 24 hours, although fluctuations back to category 5 intensity remain
possible. From Thursday, interaction with Papua New Guinea and slightly
increased shear should initiate a weakening trend. Confidence in the broad
track is moderate, though confidence in the timing and longer-term intensity
near Queensland is lower due to uncertainty in PNG interaction, forward speed,
and the degree of vertical wind shear over the Coral Sea.

A mid-level ridge building to the southwest is expected to become the dominant
steering influence and should steer Maila slowly west to west-southwest over
the next few days. This takes the system close to southeastern Papua New
Guinea, where a prolonged period of destructive winds is possible. After
passing PNG, Maila is expected to continue generally westward towards the Cape
York Peninsula. There remains considerable spread in the longer-term track,
with recent guidance slowing the system and increasing the chance of a
Queensland coast crossing farther south. The forward speed varies markedly,
with Queensland impacts possible from Saturday night through to early next
week. The current spread in guidance extends from Cape York to the north
tropical coast, though the most likely crossing remains near Coen.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 08/0730 UTC.

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	10 am April 8	5	9.0S	155.8E	30
+6hr	4 pm April 8	4	9.1S	155.7E	50
+12hr	10 pm April 8	4	9.1S	155.5E	70
+18hr	4 am April 9	4	9.2S	155.2E	85
+24hr	10 am April 9	4	9.2S	154.9E	95
+36hr	10 pm April 9	4	9.5S	154.0E	130
+48hr	10 am April 10	3	10.0S	153.0E	165
+60hr	10 pm April 10	3	10.6S	151.7E	190
+72hr	10 am April 11	3	11.5S	150.7E	215

ygsj24

WTPS31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR 013   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080000Z --- NEAR 9.0S 155.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.0S 155.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 8.7S 155.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 8.6S 154.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 8.8S 154.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 9.3S 152.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 10.6S 151.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 11.7S 148.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 12.4S 147.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 8.9S 155.8E.
08APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 757
NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080000Z IS 937 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
081500Z AND 090300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 080300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR
   
4. 013//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 9.0S 155.9E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 115 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 757 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 05 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 30P WITH A CLOUD-FILLED EYE IN AN ASYMMETRICAL CANOPY.
    
19. DRY AIR AND EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE EATING AWAY AT THE
    
20. STORM'S EASTERN FLANK, LEADING TO LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION AND A
    
21. HIGHLY COMPRESSED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST ON THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
    
22. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
    
23. CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM
    
24. (29-30 KTS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT,
    
25. OFFSET BY POTENTIAL COLD WATER UPWELLING THE STORM HAS INDUCED
    
26. WHILE QUASISTATIONARY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
    
27. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CLOUD-FILLED EYE ON ANIMATE MSI. THE
    
28. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
29. BASED ON THE AUTOMATED CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE AGENCY
    
30. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES LISTED BELOW.
    
31. 
    
32. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
33. 
    
34. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
    
35. THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTERED OVER AUSTRALIA
    
36. 
    
37. 
    
38. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
39.    PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
    
40.    KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
    
41.    ABRF: T6.5 - 127 KTS
    
42.    CIMSS ADT: 122 KTS AT 080040Z
    
43.    CIMSS AIDT: 114 KTS AT 080040Z
    
44.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 102 KTS AT 080040Z
    
45. 
    
46. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
47.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
48.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
49.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
    
50. 
    
51. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
52.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
53.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
54.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
55. 
    
56. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
57. 
    
58. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
59. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
60. 
    
61. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 30P (MAILA) IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK
    
62. WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE IT REMAINS IN THE
    
63. RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT OF THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
    
64. OF THE STR CENTERED OVER AUSTRALIA. AROUND TAU 36, THE STR IS
    
65. EXPECTED TO BUILD A EASTWARD EXTENSION THAT WILL CAUSE 30P TO
    
66. INCREASE TRANSLATION SPEED AND ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD CAPE
    
67. YORK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY,
    
68. 30P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND FOR THE
    
69. DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, INITIALLY INDUCED BY UPWELLING IN
    
70. THE SOLOMON SEA CAUSED BY MAILA'S QUASISTATIONARY TRACK THROUGH TAU
    
71. 36, THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR WILL TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY WEAKENING
    
72. MECHANISM FROM TAU 48 UNTIL TAU 120. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
    
73. FORECAST PERIOD (TAU 96-120), 30P WILL BEGIN TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR
    
74. INTO ITS CORE, FURTHER HASTENING WEAKENING. THE QUESTION OF WHAT
    
75. IMPACT A POTENTIAL COLD POOL WOULD HAVE ON MAILA REMAINS A CENTRAL
    
76. UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST; HOWEVER AT THIS
    
77. TIME, ALL INDICATORS ARE SUGGESTING COLD WATER UPWELLING WILL HAVE
    
78. A SIZEABLE IMPACT ON THE STORM'S INTENSITY WHILE IT REMAINS IN THE
    
79. SOLOMON SEA.
    
80. 
    
81. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
    
82. AGREEMENT ON OVERALL TRACK, WITH PHYSICS-BASED DETERMINISTIC MODELS
    
83. STEADILY TRACKING 30P SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE THE EXPERIMENTAL AI-BASED
    
84. MODELS DEPICT 30P REMAINING QUASISTATIONARY FOR SIGNIFICANTLY
    
85. LONGER. THIS DISCREPANCY INDUCES LARGE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD BY TAU
    
86. 120. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH OVERALL LOW
    
87. CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT
    
88. 30P WILL STEADILY WEAKEN UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
    
89. NOTABLY, THE MESOSCALE MODELS (HAFS-A AND HWRF) DEPICT A MUCH MORE
    
90. DRASTIC WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 24. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
    
91. ASSESSED WITH OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE, AS A RESULT OF THE
    
92. UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH
    
93. THE COLD POOL AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR THE STORM
    
94. WILL ENCOUNTER AS IT TRANSITS SOUTHWESTWARD.
    
95. 
    
96. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
97.    TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW
    
98.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
    
99.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
    
100.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
     
101. NNNN

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桑美和伊欧凯

巅峰强度超过08年风季的“古巴”40KT，稳坐巴新名字最强TC，把所罗门海的优越条件发挥到极致。后期进入珊瑚海可能水土不服

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：董议文、刘涛  签发：许映龙  2026 年 04 月 08 日 10 时
“迈拉”向西偏南方向移动

时  间: 8日08时(北京时，下同)

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “迈拉”，MAILA

中心位置: 南纬9.0度，东经155.8度

强度等级: 五级强热带气旋

最大风力: 17级，57米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级

中心气压: 932百帕

参考位置: 距离澳大利亚昆士兰州凯恩斯东北方向约1400公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“迈拉”由13级加强为17级

预报结论: 预计，“迈拉”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度缓慢减弱。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年4月8日08时00分）

“韦亚努”向南偏东方向移动

时  间: 8日08时

海  域: 南太平洋

命  名: “韦亚努”，VAIANU

中心位置: 南纬22.2度，东经177.4度

强度等级: 三级强热带气旋

最大风力: 12级，33米/秒，相当于我国的台风级

中心气压: 970百帕

参考位置: 距离斐济苏瓦西南方向约465公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“韦亚努”由14级减弱为12级

预报结论: 预计，“韦亚努”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向南偏东方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。



图2  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年4月8日08时00分）

莎莎

巔峰強度達到澳式Cat.5  115kt 也是JTWC的Cat.4  125kt


最近減弱了..  疑似冷水上翻和移速緩慢造成


SRA  19:14  112Kts

pocketbox

IDQ20065
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 4:40 pm EST on Wednesday 8 April 2026

At 4 pm AEST Wednesday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila (Category 4) with central
pressure 941 hPa was located near latitude 8.7 south longitude 155.8 east,
which is about 465 km west of Honiara and 960 km east of Port Moresby.

The cyclone is moving north at 6 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila, 37U, is currently located over the Solomon Sea.
Steering influences are weak, and Maila is expected to remain slow-moving in
the Solomon Sea and well away from the Queensland coast during the next few
days.

Over the weekend, Maila is forecast to move into the Coral Sea and track
towards the Far North Queensland coast. It may cross the Cape York Peninsula
early next week.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11:00 pm AEST Wednesday 08
April.

---

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0706 UTC 08/04/2026
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila
Identifier: 37U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 8.7S
Longitude: 155.8E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: north (000 deg)
Speed of Movement: 3 knots (6 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots (165 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots (230 km/h)
Central Pressure: 941 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm (85 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/5.0/W1.5/24HRS STT:W1.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1001 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  08/1200:  8.8S 155.5E:     025 (050):  080  (150):  960
+12:  08/1800:  8.9S 155.2E:     035 (070):  075  (140):  963
+18:  09/0000:  9.1S 154.9E:     045 (080):  075  (140):  964
+24:  09/0600:  9.2S 154.6E:     050 (090):  075  (140):  964
+36:  09/1800:  9.6S 153.8E:     065 (120):  075  (140):  965
+48:  10/0600: 10.4S 152.8E:     085 (155):  075  (140):  965
+60:  10/1800: 11.2S 151.7E:     100 (185):  070  (130):  970
+72:  11/0600: 12.0S 150.4E:     120 (220):  065  (120):  974
+96:  12/0600: 12.8S 148.4E:     145 (270):  060  (110):  977
+120: 13/0600: 13.3S 146.2E:     180 (335):  060  (110):  977
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila has weakened over the last few hours in the
Solomon Sea.

Maila has moved slowly during the past several hours, with recent motion
towards the north. Position is based on animated EIR imagery with good
confidence. An eye remains evident, though it has become increasingly ragged
and less well defined during the last few hours. Maila has continued to weaken
after a period of rapid intensification. Satellite imagery shows the eastern
side of the system continuing to struggle, likely due to dry air wrapping into
the circulation from the north and east.

Intensity is assessed at 90 knots, set slightly higher than the subjective
Dvorak analysis based on the objective guidance.

Dvorak analysis was based on an eye pattern. A OW surround, and an eye
adjustment of 0.0 with an OW eye and MG surrounds, yields a DT of 4.0. MET =
4.5 based on a weakening 24-hour trend, and PT = 4.0. FT is set to 4.0, with CI
reduced to 5.0. Available objective guidance at 0530 UTC (all 1-minute mean)
includes ADT 99 knots, AiDT 96 knots, and DPRINT 97 knots. DMINT 108 kn
(0334UTC), and SATCON 103 kn (0530UTC).

Environmental conditions remain generally favourable, with good upper-level
divergence and moderate ENE vertical wind shear. There remains some risk of
upwelling given the slow motion, while dry air wrapping into the system from
the north and east is evident in MIMIC-TPW imagery. Guidance remains mixed,
with some solutions maintaining Maila as an intense cyclone until land
interaction with Papua New Guinea, while others weaken the system sooner due to
upwelling, dry air entrainment, and moderate shear. Given the recent weakening
trend, Maila is forecast to continue weakening during the next 12 hours,
although intensity fluctuations remain possible. From early Friday, interaction
with Papua New Guinea and slightly increased shear could initiate a further
gradual weakening trend. Confidence in the broad track is moderate, though
confidence in the timing and longer-term intensity near Queensland is lower due
to uncertainty in PNG interaction, forward speed, and the degree of vertical
wind shear over the Coral Sea.

A mid-level ridge building to the southwest is expected to become the dominant
steering influence and should steer Maila slowly west to west-southwest over
the next few days. This takes the system close to southeastern Papua New
Guinea, where a prolonged period of destructive winds is possible. After
passing PNG, Maila is expected to continue generally westward towards the Cape
York Peninsula. There remains considerable spread in the longer-term track,
with recent guidance slowing the system and increasing the chance of a
Queensland coast crossing farther south. The forward speed varies markedly,
with Queensland impacts possible from Saturday night through to early next
week. The current spread in guidance extends from Cape York to the North
Tropical Coast, though the most likely crossing remains near Coen.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 08/1330 UTC.

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	4 pm April 8	4	8.7S	155.8E	30
+6hr	10 pm April 8	3	8.8S	155.5E	50
+12hr	4 am April 9	3	8.9S	155.2E	70
+18hr	10 am April 9	3	9.1S	154.9E	80
+24hr	4 pm April 9	3	9.2S	154.6E	90
+36hr	4 am April 10	3	9.6S	153.8E	120
+48hr	4 pm April 10	3	10.4S	152.8E	155
+60hr	4 am April 11	3	11.2S	151.7E	185
+72hr	4 pm April 11	3	12.0S	150.4E	220

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：董议文、刘涛  签发：许映龙  2026 年 04 月 08 日 18 时
“迈拉”向偏北方向移动

时  间: 8日14时(北京时，下同)

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “迈拉”，MAILA

中心位置: 南纬8.7度，东经155.8度

强度等级: 四级强热带气旋

最大风力: 15级，47米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级

中心气压: 941百帕

参考位置: 距离澳大利亚昆士兰州凯恩斯东北方向约1420公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“迈拉”由15级加强为17级，又减弱为15级

预报结论: 预计，“迈拉”将以每小时6公里左右的速度先向偏北方向后转西南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年4月8日14时00分）

“韦亚努”向南偏东方向移动

时  间: 8日14时

海  域: 南太平洋

命  名: “韦亚努”，VAIANU

中心位置: 南纬23.4度，东经177.7度

强度等级: 二级强热带气旋

最大风力: 11级，30米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压: 975百帕

参考位置: 距离斐济苏瓦南偏西方向约600公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“韦亚努”由14级减弱为11级

预报结论: 预计，“韦亚努”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向南偏东方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。



图2  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年4月8日14时00分）