留尼汪以西强热带风暴第9号“菲蒂娅”(19S.Fytia) - 海峡内快速增强，东行穿过马达加斯加 - MFR:85KT JTWC:100KT

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-1-31 21:09

JTWC 12Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPXS10 PGTW 311224
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA)
B. 31/1130Z
C. 17.14S
D. 46.43E
E. THREE/MET9
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES
UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
BALMER

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-1-31 22:00

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-1-31 23:15 编辑

WTXS31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 17.1S 46.5E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 46.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.7S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 20.2S 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 21.2S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.2S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 23.9S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 25.4S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 27.8S 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 47.0E.
31JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 311200Z IS 989 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010300Z AND 011500Z.
//
NNNN

WDXS31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR
005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 17.1S 46.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 122 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGASCAR
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: XX FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NYTIA) MADE LANDFALL IN WESTERN
MADAGASCAR NEARLY 10 HOURS AGO (310200Z) AND HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD AND FARTHER INLAND. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN
INTERACTING WITH MADAGASCARS RUGGED TOPOGRAPHY THROUGHOUT THE LAST
FEW HOURS, TC 19S HAS MAINTAINED A RELATIVELY UNIFORM CENTRAL
STRUCTURE, WITH SUPPORTIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS EXTENDING INTO THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLES. THE EYE-FEATURE THAT WAS OBSERVED
ON ANIMATED MSI BEFORE LANDFALL HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED, OBSCURING
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN
ASSESSED AS UNFAVORABLE DUE TO PERSISTENT INTERACTION WITH
MADAGASCARS WESTERN DRY REGION AND INCREASING ELEVATION FROM THE
ANKARATRA MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST. TC 19S CONTINUES TO RECEIVE ROBUST
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
OBSERVED ON ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN ADDITION,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW (5-10 KTS). THE INITIAL
POSITION HAS BEEN PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED
DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: OVER LAND
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 19S IS FORECASTED TO TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER CENTERED DIRECTLY TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL TAU 36. FOLLOWING TAU 36, A HAND-OFF IN
STEERING MECHANISMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHILE THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES THE FORECASTED SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST.
BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 120, TC 19S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR UNTIL SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION BEGINS NEAR TAU 96. REGARDING INTENSITY, TC 19S IS
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 18 DUE TO CONTINUOUS
INTERACTION WITH CENTRAL MADAGASCARS MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TOWARD 35 KTS BEFORE RE-EMERGENCE
OVER WATER BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24. ONCE TC FYTIA TRACKS BACK
OVER OPEN WATER INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN INDIAN OCEAN, GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TO 55 KTS IS EXPECTED UNTIL TAU 96 AS SUPPORTIVE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29-30 C AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW COMPETES WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ABOVE 20 KTS.
BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120, TC 19S WILL BEGIN THE INITIAL WEAKENING
PHASE DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO ABOVE 30 KTS,
DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 26
C, RESULTING IN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE (AI) MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD OF UNDER 90 NM THROUGH TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAS
BEEN PLACED CLOSE TO THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS ASSESSED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. REGARDING INTENSITY, ALL JTWC CONSENSUS
MEMBERS ILLUSTRATE A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE
TO INTERACTION WITH MADAGASCARS TERRAIN. FOLLOWING TAU 12, MOST
CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS CHARACTERIZE A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION PHASE,
BUT STILL MAINTAINS A SPREAD OF NEAR 50 KTS AT TAU 36 AND 40 KTS AT
TAU 120. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ASSESSED CLOSELY WITH
THE AVAILABLE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SOLUTIONS AND THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC MODEL THROUGH THE INITIAL 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST,
THEN ALIGNS CLOSELY WITH THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS
THEREAFTER. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST
BECAUSE OF LAND INTERACTION IN THE NEAR-TERM, THE RELATIVELY LARGE
FORECASTED INTENSITY SPREAD OF 50 KTS AT TAU 96, AND SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

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红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-1-31 23:49

JTWC 15Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPXS10 PGTW 311514
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA)
B. 31/1430Z
C. 17.57S
D. 46.87E
E. THREE/MET9
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES
UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
BALMER

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-2-1 02:00

JTWC 18Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPXS10 PGTW 311754
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA)
B. 31/1730Z
C. 17.83S
D. 46.94E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
BRYANT

ygsj24 · 发表于 2026-2-1 04:25

WTIO30 FMEE 311933
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/9/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FYTIA)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/31 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 47.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): NIL
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/01 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 49.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 75

24H: 2026/02/01 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85

36H: 2026/02/02 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2026/02/02 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

60H: 2026/02/03 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2026/02/03 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/04 18 UTC: 27.2 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 195 SW: 120 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 75

120H: 2026/02/05 18 UTC: 29.7 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, FYTIA HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
MADAGASCAR. THE CENTER IS LOCATED AT 18UTC OVER THE ANALAMANGA
REGION, IN THE NORTH OF THE ANTANANARIVO PROVINCE. THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS GRADUALLY DETERIORATED, BUT CONVECTION REMAINS STRONG NEAR THE
VORTEX, AS SHOWN BY CLASSIC SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE GPM MICROWAVE
IMAGE AT 1431Z. FYTIA KEEP A TROPICAL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH A
BEAUTIFUL SPIRAL CLOUD FORMATION AROUND THE CENTER DESPITE
INTERACTION WITH THE MADAGASCAR LAND. THIS CAN BE EXPLAINED BY THE
INERTIA OF THE POWERFUL INITIAL VORTEX COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT (LOW SHEAR, GOOD ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE). MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 35 KT WITH GUSTS NOW ONLY PRESENT INLAND NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. FYTIA IS CLASSIFIED AS A MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, STEERED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
A TROUGH LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH. IT SHOULD THEREFORE PASS WELL OFF TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF REUNION ISLAND AROUND MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS REGARDING THE SYSTEM'S FORWARD
SPEED : SOME SCENARIOS SUGGEST A SLOWDOWN LINKED TO A WEAKENING
SYSTEM STEERED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOWS, WHILE OTHER SCENARIOS FAVOR A
MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM MOVING FASTER IN THE MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH, THUS EXITING MORE RAPIDLY
TOWARDS SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES. THE LATTER SCENARIO IS SLIGHTLY
FAVORED BY THE RSMC FORECAST, WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS (AROME, HAFS-A), ENSEMBLIST AND AI ENSEMBLES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT OVER LAND THIS SATURDAY
AND FOLLOWING NIGHT WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. WHEN IT MOVES
BACK TO SEA ON SUNDAY MORNING EAST OF MADAGASCAR OVER SURFACE WATERS
ABOVE 28C, STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME NEAR THE CENTER
AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY, GRADUALLY RETURNING TO
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. HOWEVER, INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE EDGE OF A TROUGH SHOULD MORE OR LESS LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION. MODEL SPREAD BECOMES VERY HIGH FROM
TUESDAY ONWARDS, WITH SOME SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM WILL FILL IN AS
A WEAK REMNANT LOW IN CONNECTION WITH DRY AIR INTRUSIONS, WHILE
OTHERS MAINTAIN A STRONGER INTENSITY THANKS TO A FASTER MOVEMENT IN
THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE WIND SHEAR. THE RSMC FORECAST IS CLOSER TO
SCENARIOS THAT MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY. STARTING ON WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY, AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND UNDER THE EFFECT OF
INCREASING SHEAR, THE SYSTEM COULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL
FEATURES AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL.

EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR (MAHAJANGA PROVINCE):
- GALE-FORCE WINDS UNTIL THIS EVENING NEAR THE SYSTEM. IMPROVEMENT
NEXT NIGHT.
- VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH 100-200 MM IN 12 HOURS DURING THE NIGHT
ALONG THE TRACK, AS WELL AS ON SUNDAY DURING THE DAY BEHIND THE
SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH OF THE REGION.
- THE ANTSIRANANA REGION COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ON
SUNDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH CUMULATIVE TOTALS OF 100-200 MM IN 12
HOURS.

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCES OF ANTANANARIVO, TOAMASINA, AND FIANARANTSOA):
- HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG THE SYSTEM'S TRACK TONIGHT, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 200 MM IN 24 HOURS. BEFORE AND DURING THE
SYSTEM'S RETURN TO THE SEA, THE RESUMPTION OF CONVECTION AND THE
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS ON THE CENTRAL-EAST COAST SHOULD GENERATE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SOUTH OF THE PROVINCE OF TOAMASINA AND EVEN THE
FAR NORTH OF THE PROVINCE OF FIANARANTSOA, WITH UP TO 200-300 MM IN
12 HOURS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER BANDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS NOT EXCEEDING 100 MM.
- IMPROVEMENT FROM SUNDAY NOON.=

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-2-1 05:09

JTWC 21Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPXS10 PGTW 312051
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA)
B. 31/2030Z
C. 18.27S
D. 47.38E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
BRYANT

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-1 08:45

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-2-1 10:15 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 010209 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/9/20252026
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (FYTIA)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/01 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 48.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): NIL
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/01 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 0

24H: 2026/02/02 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2026/02/02 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 53.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2026/02/03 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 55 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2026/02/03 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2026/02/04 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/05 00 UTC: 28.1 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

120H: 2026/02/06 00 UTC: 34.1 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 60 SW: 40 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, FYTIA HAS CONTINUED ITS PROGRESSION INTO THE
LAND OF MADAGASCAR. THE CENTER IS LOCATED AT 00UTC NOT FAR FROM
MORAMANGA IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TOAMASINA PROVINCE. THE CLOUD
STRUCTURE HAS FURTHER DETERIORATED AND FRICTION ON LAND HAS CAUSED A
SHEAR CONFIGURATION IN WHICH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EXPOSED.
HOWEVER, CONVECTION HAS REINTENSIFIED AT SEA IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW AT
THE FRONT OF THE SYSTEM, AS SHOWN BY CLASSIC SATELLITE IMAGES. THE
GOOD ALTITUDE OUTFLOW AND THE RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION SUGGEST THAT
THE TROPICAL CHARACTER WILL BE MAINTAINED. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED, USING MODELS, WITH A STRENGTH OF 30KT, MAINLY IN THE
EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. FYTIA IS THEREFORE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, STEERED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
A TROUGH LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH. IT SHOULD THEREFORE PASS WELL OFF TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF REUNION ISLAND AROUND MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS REGARDING THE SYSTEM'S FORWARD
SPEED : SOME SCENARIOS SUGGEST A SLOWDOWN LINKED TO A WEAKENING
SYSTEM STEERED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOWS, WHILE OTHER SCENARIOS FAVOR A
MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM MOVING FASTER IN THE MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH, THUS EXITING MORE RAPIDLY
TOWARDS SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES. THE LATTER SCENARIO IS SLIGHTLY
FAVORED BY THE RSMC FORECAST, WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS (AROME, HAFS-A), ENSEMBLIST AND AI ENSEMBLES.

IN TERMS OF SYSTEM INTENSITY, THE RAPID RESUMPTION OF CONVECTION IN
THE SEA ALLOWS TO MAINTAIN A TROPICAL PATTERN DESPITE THE DECREASE IN
INTENSITY DURING ITS MOVEMENT OVER LAND DURING THE NIGHT. WHEN IT
MOVES BACK TO SEA ON SUNDAY MORNING EAST OF MADAGASCAR OVER SURFACE
WATERS ABOVE 28C, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING
NEAR THE CENTER AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY, GRADUALLY
RETURNING TO THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM STAGE. HOWEVER, INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE EDGE OF A TROUGH SHOULD MORE OR
LESS LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION. MODEL SPREAD BECOMES
VERY HIGH FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, WITH SOME SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL FILL IN AS A WEAK REMNANT LOW IN CONNECTION WITH DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS, WHILE OTHERS MAINTAIN A STRONGER INTENSITY THANKS TO A
FASTER MOVEMENT IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE WIND SHEAR. THE RSMC
FORECAST IS CLOSER TO SCENARIOS THAT MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY.
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND
UNDER THE EFFECT OF INCREASING SHEAR, THE SYSTEM COULD GRADUALLY LOSE
ITS TROPICAL FEATURES AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL.

EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR (MAHAJANGA AND ANTSIRANANA PROVINCES):

- CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING BUT VERY HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 100-200 MM IN 12
HOURS.

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCES OF ANTANANARIVO, TOAMASINA, AND FIANARANTSOA):
- HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG THE SYSTEM'S TRACK TONIGHT, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 200 MM IN 24 HOURS. BEFORE AND DURING THE
SYSTEM'S RETURN TO THE SEA, THE RESUMPTION OF CONVECTION AND THE
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS ON THE CENTRAL-EAST COAST SHOULD GENERATE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SOUTH OF THE PROVINCE OF TOAMASINA AND EVEN THE
FAR NORTH OF THE PROVINCE OF FIANARANTSOA, WITH UP TO 200-300 MM IN
12 SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER BANDS
BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY, WITH ACCUMULATIONS NOT EXCEEDING 100 MM.
- IMPROVEMENT FROM SUNDAY NOON.

ygsj24 · 发表于 2026-2-1 10:14

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-2-1 12:00 编辑

WTXS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 18.8S 48.3E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 48.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 20.3S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 21.5S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.5S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.2S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 24.2S 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 25.7S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 27.4S 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 48.7E.
01FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 46
NM EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 010000Z IS 997 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT
011500Z AND 020300Z.
//
NNNN

WDXS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR
006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 18.8S 48.3E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 46 NM EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: XX FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FYTIA) HAS TRUDGED ACROSS MADAGASCAR
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN SOME RESEMBLANCE OF
STRUCTURE WHILE CROSSING THE MORE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THE
COUNTRY AS DEPICTED BY ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY. TERRAIN HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO BECOME MISALIGNED WITH
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER LAND AND SOME DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY OF THE
OBSCURED LLCC AND LOCAL WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM ANTANANARIVO IVATO
AND TOAMASINA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
CIMSS D-MINT: 31 KTS AT 312222Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 40 KTS AT 310100Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE FYTIA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL A HANDOFF BETWEEN STEERING MECHANISMS
AROUND TAU 24 WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO PROGRESS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST. THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MEND ITS CURRENT
STRUCTURE, INTENSIFYING TO WIND SPEEDS OF APPROXIMATELY 45 KTS BY
TAU 24 AND A MAXIMUM FORECASTED STRENGTH OF 55 KTS BY TAU 72.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVE HIGH HOPES FOR THE SYSTEM
THOUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AFTER ENTERING THE INDIAN OCEAN ARE SLIGHTLY
MISREPRESENTED IN THE GUIDANCE OPENING UP THE POSSIBILITY OF A
STEADY WEAKENING TREND VICE HOLDING STEADY IN THE 50 KT TO 55 KT
RANGE. BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120 A SUDDEN DROP IN SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ADDED TO THE LIST OF HINDERING CONDITIONS FOR
TC FYTIA RESULTING IN A QUICK TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
BY TAU 120.
MODEL DISCUSSION: CROSS TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNDER 40 NM TILL
TAU 48. AFTERWARDS THE SPREAD INCREASES UPWARDS OF 100 NM AS THE
MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH THE SYSTEM. NAVGEM IS QUICK TO PULL THE
CIRCULATION FURTHER SOUTH WHILE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINING CONSENSUS
MEMBERS KEEP A STEADIER TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SPREAD UP TO 40
KTS WITH GFS GIVING STEADIER AND MORE CONSERVATIVE GUIDANCE WHILE
COAMPS-TC AND HAFS-A DEPICT A MAXIMUM INTENSITY AROUND 65 KTS. THE
JTWC FORECAST REFLECTS INTENSITIES IN LINE WITH THE MULTI MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORING THE LOWER INTENSITIES CONSISTENT WITH EXPECTED
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

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pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-1 10:50

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹越男  签发：董林  2026 年 02 月 01 日 10 时
“菲蒂娅”向东南方向移动

时  间: 2月1日08时（北京时）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “菲蒂娅”，FYTIA

中心位置: 南纬18.8度，东经48.5度

强度等级: 热带低压

最大风力: 7级，15米/秒，相当于我国的热带低压级

中心气压: 1001百帕

参考位置: “菲蒂娅”位于马达加斯加图阿马西纳省境内

变化过程: “菲蒂娅”过去24小时，强度由16级减弱至7级

预报结论: “菲蒂娅”将以每小时25公里左右的速度向东南方向移动，强度逐渐加强。

图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年2月1日08时00分）

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-2-1 12:19

JTWC 00Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPXS10 PGTW 312353
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA)
B. 31/2330Z
C. 15.61S
D. 48.05E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
BRYANT

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留尼汪以西强热带风暴第9号“菲蒂娅”(19S.Fytia) - 海峡内快速增强，东行穿过马达加斯加 - MFR:85KT JTWC:100KT

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