达尔文东北三级强热带气旋“菲纳”(02U/05S.Fina) - 影响澳洲北部 - JTWC:70KT

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR 015   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z --- NEAR 11.7S 131.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 131.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 12.2S 131.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 12.7S 130.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 13.4S 129.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 14.1S 128.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 14.8S 127.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 14.9S 127.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 15.1S 126.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 11.8S 131.6E.
21NOV25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 71 NM
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 211800Z IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 212100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR
   
4. 015//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 11.7S 131.8E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 71 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. TROPICAL CYCLONE FINA (05S) HAS CROSSED THE COBOURG PENINSULA AND
    
18. IS TRACKING THROUGH THE VAN DIEMEN GULF WHILE INTENSIFYING, ON A
    
19. TRACK THAT WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO DARWIN. ANIMATED
    
20. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVING AND
    
21. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EASING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT,
    
22. WHERE THE SYSTEM HAD BEEN FIGHTING THE SHEAR FOR THE PAST 48 HOURS.
    
23. THERE IS STILL MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHEAR FROM THE NORTH, BUT OVERALL
    
24. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THE
    
25. ORGANIZATION AND VIGOR HAVE VISIBLY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 12
    
26. HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON THE JTWC DVORAK
    
27. OF T4.0 AND THEN RAISED A NOTCH DUE TO SURGING ADT RAW AND AIDT
    
28. VALUES AND ESPECIALLY A JUMP IN THE DMINT VALUES WITH THE 211611
    
29. AMSR-2 PASS. THE COLOR 37-89 IMAGES SHOW SOME OMINOUS SIGNS OF EVEN
    
30. MORE THAN THE 76KT ESTIMATE, BUT THE SYSTEM WAS TRACKING OVER THE
    
31. COBOURG PENINSULA AT THE TIME AND ALL OTHER DATA SHOWED A MUCH
    
32. LOWER INTENSITY, SO THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE IS BEING DISCOUNTED
    
33. SOMEWHAT FOR THE MOMENT. THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE IS SO STRONG,
    
34. HOWEVER, THAT IT HAS ACTED AS A CONFIDENCE WRECKER AND THE SYSTEM IS
    
35. BEING WATCHED WARILY FOR ANOTHER SIGN OF INTENSIFICATION. ANOTHER
    
36. FACTOR IN SITTING TIGHT FOR ANOTHER CYCLE IS THAT TC 05S IS MOVING OUT
    
37. OF THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM PHASE AND INTO THE WINDOW OF AVAILABLE VISUAL
    
38. IMAGERY, SO AT WORST CASE THE ANALYSIS WILL LAG FOR ONE CYCLE.
    
39. 
    
40. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 211247Z ASCAT.
    
41. 
    
42. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED
    
43. OVER THE CONTINENT NEAR 20S 140E IS KEEPING THE SYSTEM OFF-SHORE.
    
44. 
    
45. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
46.    PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
47.    ADRM: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
48.    CIMSS ADT: 72 KTS AT 211730Z
    
49.    CIMSS AIDT: 75 KTS AT 211730Z
    
50.    CIMSS D-MINT: 76 KTS AT 211611Z
    
51.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 66 KTS AT 211900Z
    
52. 
    
53. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
54.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
55.    SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
    
56.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
57.    OTHER FACTORS: LAND INTERACTION ON EITHER SIDE AS THE SYSTEM
    
58. TRACKS BETWEEN MELVILLE ISLAND AND THE TOP END.
    
59. 
    
60. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
61.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
62.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
63.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
64. 
    
65. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
66. 
    
67. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: A 120 HOUR POSITION HAS BEEN ADDED TO
    
68. THE FORECAST AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM MAY TAKE
    
69. 24 HOURS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SANDY SOILS OF THE NORTHERN
    
70. TERRITORY, ESPECIALLY AS THE RAIN BANDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ADD
    
71. MOISTURE TO THE HEAT BATTERY.  
    
72. 
    
73. FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE VORTEX OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S MAY REMAIN
    
74. NARROWLY OFF-SHORE OF DARWIN BUT THE WIND FIELDS AND RAINFALL WILL
    
75. BE VIGOROUS AS THE SYSTEM PASSES. A GRADUAL EASING OF VERTICAL WIND
    
76. SHEAR WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO SUSTAIN DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT
    
77. 48 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE
    
78. SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS ARE
    
79. ALREADY SHOWING THAT THE SOUTHEASTERLIES FLOWING INTO THE SYSTEM
    
80. FROM OVER THE CONTINENT ARE ALREADY HAVING AN EFFECT ON THE
    
81. MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE STORM, AND
    
82. 700-300MB COLUMN MOISTURE PROGS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL BE
    
83. SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR AND LIMITED TO A SMALL CORE OF MOISTURE BY
    
84. THE TIME IT MAKES LANDFALL NORTH OF WYNDHAM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
    
85. TO COME ASHORE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF
    
86. AND THEN DISSIPATE AT A SLOW RATE DUE TO THE BROWN OCEAN EFFECT.
    
87. 
    
88. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST 24
    
89. HOURS BUT THEN SPREADS TO A HIGHER DEGREE THAN USUAL AS THE SYSTEM
    
90. MOVES INTO THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF, THEN SPREADS EVEN FURTHER IN
    
91. THE EXTENDED RANGE. THE MORE HIGHLY SKILLED TRACKERS AND NEWER AI
    
92. TRACKERS, WHICH HAD A GOOD RUN IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC THIS PAST
    
93. SEASON, DIVERGE TO THE SOUTH AND TAKE THE SYSTEM INLAND IN A
    
94. DISSIPATION SCENARIO. ONLY ONE ENSEMBLE (GEFS) KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER
    
95. WATER THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST
    
96. AFTER TAU 72 PLUNGES TO A LEVEL FAR LOWER THAN AVERAGE.  THE
    
97. INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOLLOWS A SMOOTH AND COHERENT SLOPE WITH JTWC
    
98. STAYING ON THE HIGH END OF CONSENSUS, BUT ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL
    
99. FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) STILL EXISTS, CONSISTENT FALSE
    
100. POSITIVES OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAVE RESULTED IN A MORE SKEPTICAL
     
101. OUTLOOK FOR RI.
     
102. 
     
103. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
104.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
105.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
     
106.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
     
107.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
     
108. NNNN

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ygsj24

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Advice
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the Tiwi Islands and the area near and between Cape Hotham to Point Stuart are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 22
Issued at 07:29 AM CST on Saturday 22 November 2025

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina has intensified to Category 3 in the Van Diemen Gulf.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: The Tiwi Islands, Daly River Mouth to Cape Don, and inland to Batchelor. This includes Darwin, Cobourg Peninsula, Pirlangimpi, Milikapiti and Wurrumiyanga.

Watch zone: Wadeye to south of Daly River Mouth.

Cancelled zone: Minjilang to Warruwi.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina 02U at 6:30 am ACST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 11.7 degrees South 131.7 degrees East, estimated to be 120 kilometres northeast of Darwin and 115 kilometres east of Wurrumiyanga.
Movement: southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina is moving southwest across the Van Diemen Gulf and is expected to pass north of Darwin later today.
After passing Darwin, Fina is forecast to maintain severe tropical cyclone intensity on Sunday or early Monday as it moves through the southern Timor Sea, and then start weakening during Monday.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 185 km/h are likely along the southeastern coast of Tiwi Islands this morning, moving west during the day, with a slight chance of reaching Wurrumiyanga later today. Very destructive wind gusts are likely near Cape Hotham for a period later this morning. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 140 km/h may be occurring over southeastern parts of the Tiwi Islands this morning, extending west to southern parts of the islands, including Wurrumiyanga during the day. Destructive gusts may develop near Cape Hotham this morning, and possibly extend to Darwin later on Saturday. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring over the Cobourg Peninsula, eastern parts of Melville Island and Cape Hotham to Point Stuart. Gales are expected to extend further west to include Darwin during Saturday morning and across the remainder of the Tiwi Islands during Saturday. Gales may extend southwest to Daly River Mouth and Wadeye later on Saturday or overnight into Sunday morning if Fina takes a more southerly track. HEAVY to LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible along coastal areas between the Tiwi Islands and the Cobourg Peninsula, extending to coastal and adjacent inland areas across the western Top End including Darwin later today and on Sunday. Coastal residents on the Tiwi Islands, and between Cape Hotham and Warruwi are specifically warned that tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with LARDE WAVES and MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
NTES advises people in the path of the dangerous cyclone about the southern Melville Island and Cape Hotham to Point Stuart, should stay calm and remain in a secure shelter while the destructive winds continue. Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone - destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any time. Heed the advice and follow the instructions of Emergency Services personnel and local authorities. NTES advises people on the Tiwi Islands, and elsewhere between Daly River Mouth to Cape Don, including Darwin, Batchelor and Cobourg Peninsula should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property, using available daylight hours. NTES advises people elsewhere near and between Wadeye and south of Daly River Mouth, should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Secure NT website (https://securent.nt.gov.au). For emergency assistance call the Northern Territory Emergency Service (NTES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

The next advice will be issued by 10:30 am ACST Saturday 22 November.

	Time (Australian Central Standard Time)Time (ACST)	Intensity category	Latitude (decimal degrees)Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal degrees)Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated position accuracy
plus 0 hours0 hr	6 am November 22	3	11.7° SouthS	131.7° EastE	20 kilometres20 km
plus 6 hours+6 hr	12 pm November 22	3	11.9° SouthS	131.2° EastE	45 kilometres45 km
plus 12 hours+12 hr	6 pm November 22	3	12.0° SouthS	130.8° EastE	60 kilometres60 km
plus 18 hours+18 hr	12 am November 23	3	12.1° SouthS	130.4° EastE	75 kilometres75 km
plus 24 hours+24 hr	6 am November 23	3	12.3° SouthS	129.9° EastE	85 kilometres85 km
plus 36 hours+36 hr	6 pm November 23	3	12.6° SouthS	129.0° EastE	105 kilometres105 km
plus 48 hours+48 hr	6 am November 24	3	12.9° SouthS	128.3° EastE	120 kilometres120 km
plus 60 hours+60 hr	6 pm November 24	3	13.2° SouthS	127.5° EastE	150 kilometres150 km
plus 72 hours+72 hr	6 am November 25	2	13.2° SouthS	126.9° EastE	170 kilometres170 km

觀雲趣

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov ... storm=SH052026_FINA

小尺寸 風力強 類似1974年的Tracy

SH052026 / FINA | RCM2 - HV | 2025-11-21 20:43:05
        Storm Center Longitude: 131.720
        Storm Center Latitude: -11.639
        Incidence Angle (Degrees): 52.705
        Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 105.83
        Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 98.32
        Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 105.31
        Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 121.32
        RMax (nmi): 7.00 - 8.00

pocketbox

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0040 UTC 22/11/2025
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 11.8S
Longitude: 131.4E
Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (248 deg)
Speed of Movement: 5 knots (9 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots (120 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots (165 km/h)
Central Pressure: 976 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 45 nm (85 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (15 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm (165 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  22/0600: 12.0S 131.0E:     025 (040):  070  (130):  972
+12:  22/1200: 12.2S 130.5E:     030 (055):  070  (130):  972
+18:  22/1800: 12.4S 130.1E:     040 (075):  070  (130):  972
+24:  23/0000: 12.6S 129.6E:     045 (085):  070  (130):  972
+36:  23/1200: 13.0S 128.8E:     060 (110):  075  (140):  967
+48:  24/0000: 13.2S 128.1E:     070 (130):  070  (130):  971
+60:  24/1200: 13.3S 127.2E:     085 (160):  060  (110):  980
+72:  25/0000: 13.3S 126.5E:     100 (185):  050  (095):  986
+96:  26/0000: 13.4S 125.4E:     145 (265):  035  (065):  995
+120: 27/0000: 14.3S 125.0E:     200 (375):  030  (055):  998
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina has intensified into a category 3 system. It is
located in the western Van Diemen gulf near the north coast of the Northern
Territory, and has been moving towards the west southwest over the past 6
hours. Position is good based on Darwin radar tracking.   

Intensity is estimated at 65 knots, based on a consensus of objective guidance
and subjective Dvorak, and consistent with the doppler winds on Darwin radar.
Dvorak is based on MET/PAT with a D trend and PAT adjustment giving FT/CI 4.0.
DT was difficult to assign.  

Latest available CIMSS objective guidance (1-min winds) accessed at 2300 UTC:
ADT 79 knots, AiDT 76 knots, DPRINT 66 knots, DMINT 82 knots, and SATCON 82
knots. There are no surface observations near the core of Fina, but Point
Stuart (further to the southeast) recorded a wind gust of 55 knots at 2252 UTC.

Fina has been moving towards the west southwest recently, and is close to the
southeast coast of Melville Island. Guidance is generally consistent in a
southwest track, noting that some guidance indicates a more southerly dip in
the track could occur during Saturday, which would take the core of Fina closer
to Darwin. In the longer term, models indicate a west southwest track taking
Fina back over water in the Timor Sea and towards the northern parts of Western
Australia early next week.  
Latest available CIMSS shear analysis was for 21UTC when it was analysed
northerly at around 15 knots, and the shear along the forecast track is
analysed to be decreasing. Gradient of brightness temperatures in IR imagery
suggests shear is not strong. Models indicate shear is likely to stay low
during Saturday. This, coupled with other supporting factors including warm
SST, outflow to the southwest and sufficient low-level moisture, mean that Fina
is expected to strengthen a little further during the day, although this
depends a little on track and how close to land it moves.  

Once over the open water of the southern Timor Sea on Sunday, Fina may
strengthen further, and is forecast to reach an intensity of 75 knots. Drier
air and increasing vertical shear from Monday onwards are expected to weaken
the system. It may impact the north coast of Western Australia as a tropical
cyclone, or weaken while still over water.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/0730 UTC.

---

IDD20150
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the Tiwi Islands and the area near and between Cape
Hotham to Point Stuart are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning
Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 23
Issued at 9:54 am ACST on Saturday 22 November 2025


Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina, Category 3, to pass just north of Darwin later
today. Darwin to experience rapid increase in winds later this afternoon and
evening.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Daly River Mouth to Cape Don, including Tiwi Islands, Dundee
Beach, Darwin, Milikapiti, Pirlangimpi and Wurrumiyanga.

Watch zone: Troughton Island to Wadeye.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina 02U at 9:30 am ACST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 11.8 degrees South 131.4 degrees East,
estimated to be 90 kilometres northeast of Darwin and 85 kilometres east of
Wurrumiyanga.
Movement: west southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina is moving west southwest across the Van Diemen
Gulf and is expected to pass north of Darwin later today.

After passing Darwin, Fina is forecast to maintain severe tropical cyclone
intensity on Sunday or early Monday as it moves through the southern Timor Sea,
and then start weakening during Monday or Tuesday near the Kimberley coast.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 185 km/h are likely along the southeastern coast
of Tiwi Islands this morning, moving west during the day, with a chance of
reaching Wurrumiyanga later today. Very destructive wind gusts are likely about
exposed coastal sites northeast of Darwin today but the risk at Darwin Is
assessed as low.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/h are occurring over southeastern parts of the
Tiwi Islands, and likely to extend west to southern parts of the islands,
including Wurrumiyanga during the day. Destructive gusts are expected to extend
to the Darwin region later today.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring over the Cobourg
Peninsula, eastern parts of Melville Island and Cape Hotham to Point Stuart.
Gales are expected to extend further west to include Darwin this afternoon and
across the remainder of the Tiwi Islands during the day. Gales may extend
southwest to Daly River Mouth overnight, and if Fina takes a more southerly
track, gales Could extend south to Wadeye on Sunday.

Later Sunday or on Monday, GALES may extend to coastal parts of the north
Kimberley in WA, from Kalumburu to the WA/NT Border, but not including Wyndham
or Kununurra.

HEAVY to LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible
along coastal areas between the Tiwi Islands and the Cobourg Peninsula,
extending to coastal and adjacent inland areas across the western Top End
including Darwin later today and on Sunday.

Coastal residents on the Tiwi Islands, and between Cape Hotham and Warruwi are
specifically warned that tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide
mark with LARGE WAVES and MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
NTES advises people in the path of the dangerous cyclone about southern
Melville Island and Cape Hotham to Point Stuart, should stay calm and remain in
a secure shelter while the destructive winds continue. Do not venture outside
if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone - destructive winds from a
different direction could resume at any time. Heed the advice and follow the
instructions of Emergency Services personnel and local authorities.

NTES advises people on the Tiwi Islands, and elsewhere between Daly River Mouth
to Cape Don, including Darwin, Batchelor and Cobourg Peninsula should
immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and
property, using available daylight hours. NTES advises people elsewhere near
and between Wadeye and south of Daly River Mouth, should consider what action
they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. For cyclone
preparedness and safety advice, visit the Secure NT website
(https://securent.nt.gov.au). For emergency assistance call the Northern
Territory Emergency Service (NTES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm
damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 10:45 am ACST Saturday 22 November.

This advice is available on telephone at 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (ACST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	10 am November 22	3	11.8S	131.4E	20
+6hr	4 pm November 22	3	12.0S	131.0E	40
+12hr	10 pm November 22	3	12.2S	130.5E	55
+18hr	4 am November 23	3	12.4S	130.1E	75
+24hr	10 am November 23	3	12.6S	129.6E	85
+36hr	10 pm November 23	3	13.0S	128.8E	110
+48hr	10 am November 24	3	13.2S	128.1E	130
+60hr	10 pm November 24	2	13.3S	127.2E	160
+72hr	10 am November 25	2	13.3S	126.5E	185

pocketbox

IDD20150
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the Tiwi Islands and the area near and between Cape
Hotham to Point Stuart are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning
Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 24
Issued at 10:43 am ACST on Saturday 22 November 2025


Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina, Category 3, to pass just north of Darwin later
today. Darwin to experience rapid increase in winds later this afternoon and
evening.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: The Tiwi Islands, Daly River Mouth to Cape Don, and inland to
Batchelor. This includes Darwin, Cobourg Peninsula, Pirlangimpi, Milikapiti and
Wurrumiyanga.

Watch zone: From south of Daly River Mouth to Troughton Island (WA) including
Wadeye and Kalumburu

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina 02U at 10:30 am ACST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 130 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 185 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 11.8 degrees South 131.3 degrees East,
estimated to be 85 kilometres northeast of Darwin and 80 kilometres east of
Wurrumiyanga.
Movement: west southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina is moving west southwest across the Van Diemen
Gulf and is expected to pass north of Darwin later today.

After passing Darwin, Fina is forecast to maintain severe tropical cyclone
intensity on Sunday or early Monday as it moves through the southern Timor Sea,
and then start weakening during Monday or Tuesday near the Kimberley coast.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 185 km/h are likely along the southeastern coast
of Tiwi Islands moving west during the day, with a chance of reaching
Wurrumiyanga this evening. Very destructive wind gusts are likely about exposed
coastal sites northeast of Darwin today but the risk at Darwin Is assessed as
low.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/h are likely to extend west to southern parts
of the Tiwi islands, including Wurrumiyanga during the day. Destructive gusts
are expected to extend to the Darwin region later today and possibly to Dundee
Beach tonight.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring over the Cobourg
Peninsula, eastern parts of Melville Island and Cape Hotham to Point Stuart.
Gales are expected to extend further west to include Darwin this afternoon and
across the remainder of the Tiwi Islands during the day. Gales may extend
southwest to Daly River Mouth overnight, and if Fina takes a more southerly
track, gales Could extend south to Wadeye on Sunday.

Later Sunday or on Monday, GALES may extend to coastal parts of the north
Kimberley in WA, from Kalumburu to the WA/NT Border, but not including Wyndham
or Kununurra.

HEAVY to LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible
along coastal areas between the Tiwi Islands and the Cobourg Peninsula,
extending to coastal and adjacent inland areas across the western Top End
including Darwin later today and on Sunday.

Coastal residents on the Tiwi Islands, and between Cape Hotham and Warruwi are
specifically warned that tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide
mark with LARGE WAVES and MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
NTES advises people in the path of the dangerous cyclone about southern
Melville Island and Cape Hotham to Point Stuart, should stay calm and remain in
a secure shelter while the destructive winds continue. Do not venture outside
if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone - destructive winds from a
different direction could resume at any time. Heed the advice and follow the
instructions of Emergency Services personnel and local authorities.

NTES advises people on the Tiwi Islands, and elsewhere between Daly River Mouth
to Cape Don, including Darwin, Batchelor and Cobourg Peninsula should
immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and
property, using available daylight hours. NTES advises people elsewhere near
and between Wadeye and south of Daly River Mouth, should consider what action
they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. For cyclone
preparedness and safety advice, visit the Secure NT website
(https://securent.nt.gov.au). For emergency assistance call the Northern
Territory Emergency Service (NTES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm
damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 11:30 am ACST Saturday 22 November.

This advice is available on telephone at 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (ACST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	11 am November 22	3	11.8S	131.3E	20
+6hr	5 pm November 22	3	12.0S	130.9E	40
+12hr	11 pm November 22	3	12.2S	130.4E	55
+18hr	5 am November 23	3	12.4S	130.0E	75
+24hr	11 am November 23	3	12.6S	129.5E	85
+36hr	11 pm November 23	3	13.0S	128.7E	110
+48hr	11 am November 24	3	13.2S	128.0E	130
+60hr	11 pm November 24	2	13.3S	127.1E	165
+72hr	11 am November 25	2	13.2S	126.4E	185

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR 016   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220000Z --- NEAR 11.8S 131.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 131.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 12.3S 130.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 13.0S 129.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 13.6S 128.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 14.1S 128.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 14.6S 127.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 15.0S 126.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 15.5S 126.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 131.2E.
22NOV25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 51 NM
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 220000Z IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z, AND 230300Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 220300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR
   
4. 016//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 11.8S 131.4E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 51 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. A 212034Z SAR PASS DEPICTS SHARPLY HIGHER INTENSITIES THAN ALL
    
18. ASSESSMENTS THUS FAR, BUT THE INCIDENCE ANGLE IS AT THE BORDER OF
    
19. OK AND DEGRADED OUTPUTS. THE SAR DEPICTS A SOLID RING OF GREATER
    
20. THAN 85KTS IN THE MAIN EYEWALL, AND SOME INDIVIDUAL CAPSULES IN THE
    
21. NORTHWEST EYEWALL ARE IN EXCESS OF 100KTS. THOSE PICS ARE PLAUSIBLE
    
22. AS VISUAL ANIMATION SHOWS SOME OVERSHOOTING TOPS IN THE SAME AREA
    
23. DURING THE PAST THREE HOURS. ENHANCED IR IMAGERY FROM CIRA ALSO
    
24. SHOWS INCREASING COLD TOPS FLARING UP NEAR THE CORE AND ANIMATED
    
25. WATER VAPOR SHOWS IMPROVING OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
    
26. THUS THE INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP AN INCREMENT, HEDGING THE TOP END
    
27. OF THE DVORAKS AND OBJECTIVE ASSESSMENTS TOWARDS THE SAR. TROPICAL
    
28. CYCLONE FINA IS TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF MELVILLE ISLAND TOWARDS AN
    
29. AREA OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT THE GAP BETWEEN MELVILLE
    
30. ISLAND AND THE TOP END IS SO TIGHT THAT THE EFFECTS OF LAND
    
31. INTERACTION, HOWEVER MILD, ARE BEING FELT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE
    
32. SYSTEM. THE RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM IS HELPING TO
    
33. MINIMIZE THE LAND INTERACTION. DRIER EASTERLIES FLOWING OVER THE TOP
    
34. END ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM.
    
35. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 212034Z SAR PASS.
    
36. 
    
37. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A STABLE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
    
38. ANCHORED NEAR 19S 138E IS FORCING THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN OFF-SHORE.  
    
39. 
    
40. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
41.    PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
42.    ADRM: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
43.    CIMSS SATCON: 80 KTS AT 212100Z
    
44.    CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 220100Z
    
45.    CIMSS AIDT: 75 KTS AT 220100Z
    
46.    CIMSS D-MINT: 82 KTS AT 212059Z
    
47.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 71 KTS AT 220100Z
    
48. 
    
49. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
50.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
51.    SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
    
52.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
53. 
    
54. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
55.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
56.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
57.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
58. 
    
59. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
60. 
    
61. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
62. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
63. 
    
64. FORECAST DISCUSSION: IN THE NEAR TERM, THE VORTEX OF TROPICAL
    
65. CYCLONE FINA WILL REMAIN OVER WATER THROUGH THE CHANNEL AND TRACK
    
66. INTO THE TIMOR SEA, JUST SKIRTING THE TOP END. FINA IS EXPECTED TO
    
67. BE PEAKING AS IT TRACKS JUST NORTH OF DARWIN. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
    
68. (VWS) WILL EASE AND THE SYSTEM WILL MANAGE TO COCOON ITSELF FROM
    
69. THE ENCROACHING DRY AIR FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, BUT AFTER THAT BOTH
    
70. VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL ACT TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM ALONG ITS
    
71. TERMINAL LEG TOWARDS A LANDFALL NORTH OF WYNDHAM. THE SYSTEM IS
    
72. EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT OR NEAR TYPHOON STRENGTH IN THE CENTRAL
    
73. PART OF THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF, IN AN AREA OF LESSER BROWN OCEAN
    
74. EFFECT DUE TO MORE IRREGULAR AND ROCKY TERRAIN THAN THAT FURTHER
    
75. SOUTH, OVER THE GREAT SANDY DESSERT.  ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
    
76. SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND RATHER THAN MOVING BACK OFF THE
    
77. KIMBERLY COAST, BUT AT THAT TEMPORAL DISTANCE A RE-EMERGENCE BACK INTO
    
78. COASTAL WATERS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.
    
79. 
    
80. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A MUCH WIDER SPREAD THAN
    
81. NORMAL, ESPECIALLY IN THE LONG RANGE WHERE THE SPREAD MOVES INTO
    
82. THE REALM OF RIDICULOUSNESS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MORE SKILLED
    
83. TRACKERS INCLUDING THE NEW AI VARIANTS SPLIT TOWARDS LANDFALL ONTO
    
84. THE CONTINENT. INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A WIDE SPREAD BUT
    
85. QUALITATIVELY THEY TELL THE SAME STORY, WITH THE STORM PEAKING IN
    
86. THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN BEGINNING AN EMPHATIC DETERIORATION
    
87. THEREAFTER. THE JTWC FORECAST STAYS ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
    
88. AND HEDGES TOWARDS THE GFS-BASED STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND
    
89. HAFS-A OUTPUT, THOUGH THE PEAK INTENSITY FORECAST OF 95KTS AT TAU
    
90. 36 IS WELL BELOW THE HAFS OUTPUT OF 105KTS.
    
91. 
    
92. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
93.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
94.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
95.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
    
96.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    
97. NNNN

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pocketbox

IDD20150
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 25
Issued at 11:38 am ACST on Saturday 22 November 2025


Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina, Category 3, to pass just north of Darwin this
evening. Darwin to experience rapid increase in winds later this afternoon and
evening.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: The Tiwi Islands, Wadeye to Cape Don. This includes Darwin,
Cobourg Peninsula, Pirlangimpi, Milikapiti and Wurrumiyanga.

Watch zone: Wadeye (NT) to Troughton Island (WA) including Kalumburu (WA)

Cancelled zone: Inland areas in the Batchelor region

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina 02U at 11:30 am ACST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 130 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 185 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 11.8 degrees South 131.3 degrees East,
estimated to be 85 kilometres north northeast of Darwin and 75 kilometres east
of Wurrumiyanga.
Movement: west southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina is now near the southeast coast of Melville Island
moving west southwest and is expected to pass north of Darwin this evening.

After passing Darwin, Fina is forecast to maintain severe tropical cyclone
intensity on Sunday or early Monday as it moves through the southern Timor Sea,
and then start weakening during Monday or Tuesday near the Kimberley coast.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 185 km/h are likely along the southeastern coast
of Tiwi Islands moving west during the day, with a chance of reaching
Wurrumiyanga this evening. Very destructive wind gusts are likely about exposed
coastal sites northeast of Darwin today but the risk at Darwin Is assessed as
low.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/h are likely to extend west to southern parts
of the Tiwi islands, including Wurrumiyanga during the day. Destructive gusts
are expected to extend to the Darwin region later today and possibly to Dundee
Beach tonight.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring over the Cobourg
Peninsula, eastern parts of Melville Island and Cape Hotham to Point Stuart.
Gales are expected to extend further west to include Darwin this afternoon and
across the remainder of the Tiwi Islands during the day. Gales may extend
southwest to Daly River Mouth overnight, and if Fina takes a more southerly
track, gales could extend south to Wadeye on Sunday.

Later Sunday or on Monday, GALES may extend to coastal parts of the north
Kimberley in WA, from Kalumburu to the WA/NT Border, but not including Wyndham
or Kununurra.

HEAVY to LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible
along coastal areas between the Tiwi Islands and the Cobourg Peninsula,
extending to coastal and adjacent inland areas across the western Top End
including Darwin later today and on Sunday.

Coastal residents on the Tiwi Islands, and between Cape Hotham and Warruwi are
specifically warned that tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide
mark with LARGE WAVES and MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
NTES advises people in the path of the dangerous cyclone about southern
Melville Island and Cape Hotham to Point Stuart, should stay calm and remain in
a secure shelter while the destructive winds continue. Do not venture outside
if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone - destructive winds from a
different direction could resume at any time. Heed the advice and follow the
instructions of Emergency Services personnel and local authorities.

NTES advises people on the Tiwi Islands, and elsewhere between Daly River Mouth
to Cape Don, including Darwin, Batchelor and Cobourg Peninsula should
immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and
property, using available daylight hours. NTES advises people elsewhere near
and between Wadeye and south of Daly River Mouth, should consider what action
they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. For cyclone
preparedness and safety advice, visit the Secure NT website
(https://securent.nt.gov.au). For emergency assistance call the Northern
Territory Emergency Service (NTES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm
damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 12:30 pm ACST Saturday 22 November.

This advice is available on telephone at 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (ACST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	12 pm November 22	3	11.8S	131.3E	20
+6hr	6 pm November 22	3	12.0S	130.9E	40
+12hr	12 am November 23	3	12.2S	130.4E	55
+18hr	6 am November 23	3	12.4S	129.9E	70
+24hr	12 pm November 23	3	12.6S	129.5E	80
+36hr	12 am November 24	3	13.0S	128.7E	110
+48hr	12 pm November 24	3	13.2S	128.0E	140
+60hr	12 am November 25	2	13.2S	127.1E	160
+72hr	12 pm November 25	2	13.2S	126.4E	170

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：葛畅、张增海  签发：许映龙  2025 年 11 月 22 日 10 时
“菲纳”向西偏南方向移动

时  间: 22日08时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “菲纳”，FINA

中心位置:  南纬11.8度，东经131.4度

强度等级: 三级强热带气旋

最大风力: 12级，33米/秒，相当于我国的台风级

中心气压: 976百帕

参考位置: 距离澳大利亚达尔文东北方向约95公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“菲纳”由9级增强为12级

预报结论: “菲纳”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度逐渐增强



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年11月22日08时00分）

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IDD20150
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 26
Issued at 12:45 pm ACST on Saturday 22 November 2025


Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina, Category 3, to pass just north of Darwin this
evening. Darwin to experience rapid increase in winds later this afternoon and
evening.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: The Tiwi Islands and Cape Don to Wadeye. This includes Darwin,
Cobourg Peninsula, Pirlangimpi, Milikapiti, Wurrumiyanga and Wadeye.

Watch zone: From Wadeye (NT) to Troughton Island (WA) including Kalumburu (WA).

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina 02U at 12:30 pm ACST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 140 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 195 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 11.8 degrees South 131.2 degrees East,
estimated to be 75 kilometres north northeast of Darwin and 70 kilometres east
of Wurrumiyanga.
Movement: west southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

Darwin radar shows Fina close to the southeast coast of Melville Island. Fina
is expected to continue moving west southwest to pass north of Darwin this
evening.

After passing Darwin, Fina is forecast to maintain severe tropical cyclone
intensity on Sunday and into Monday as it moves through the southern Timor Sea,
and then start weakening during Monday or Tuesday near the Kimberley coast.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 185 km/h are likely along the southeastern coast
of Tiwi Islands moving west during the day, with a chance of reaching
Wurrumiyanga this evening. Very destructive wind gusts are likely about exposed
coastal sites northeast of Darwin (including Gunn Point and Cape Hotham) today
but the risk at Darwin is assessed as low.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/h are likely to extend west to southern parts
of the Tiwi islands, including Wurrumiyanga during the day. Destructive gusts
are expected to extend to the Darwin region later today and possibly to Dundee
Beach tonight.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring over the Cobourg
Peninsula, eastern parts of Melville Island and Cape Hotham to Point Stuart.
Gales are expected to extend further west to include Darwin this afternoon and
across the remainder of the Tiwi Islands during the day. Gales may extend
southwest to Daly River Mouth overnight, and if Fina takes a more southerly
track, gales could extend south to Wadeye on Sunday.

Later Sunday or on Monday, GALES may extend to coastal parts of the north
Kimberley in WA, from Kalumburu to the WA/NT Border, but not including Wyndham
or Kununurra.

HEAVY to LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible
along coastal areas between the Tiwi Islands and the Cobourg Peninsula,
extending to coastal and adjacent inland areas across the western Top End
including Darwin later today and on Sunday.

Coastal residents on the Tiwi Islands, and between Cape Hotham and Warruwi are
specifically warned that tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide
mark with LARGE WAVES and MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
NTES advises people in the path of the dangerous cyclone about southern
Melville Island and Cape Hotham to Point Stuart, should stay calm and remain in
a secure shelter while the destructive winds continue. Do not venture outside
if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone - destructive winds from a
different direction could resume at any time. Heed the advice and follow the
instructions of Emergency Services personnel and local authorities.

NTES advises people on the Tiwi Islands, and elsewhere between Daly River Mouth
to Cape Don, including Darwin, Batchelor and Cobourg Peninsula should
immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and
property, using available daylight hours. NTES advises people elsewhere near
and between Wadeye and south of Daly River Mouth, should consider what action
they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. For cyclone
preparedness and safety advice, visit the Secure NT website
(https://securent.nt.gov.au). For emergency assistance call the Northern
Territory Emergency Service (NTES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm
damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 1:30 pm ACST Saturday 22 November.

This advice is available on telephone at 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (ACST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	1 pm November 22	3	11.8S	131.2E	20
+6hr	7 pm November 22	3	12.1S	130.8E	40
+12hr	1 am November 23	3	12.3S	130.3E	55
+18hr	7 am November 23	3	12.5S	129.9E	75
+24hr	1 pm November 23	3	12.7S	129.4E	80
+36hr	1 am November 24	3	13.1S	128.7E	110
+48hr	1 pm November 24	3	13.2S	127.9E	140
+60hr	1 am November 25	2	13.3S	127.0E	160
+72hr	1 pm November 25	2	13.3S	126.3E	170

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IDD20150

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 27
Issued at 1:35 pm ACST [12:05 pm AWST] on Saturday 22 November 2025

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina, Category 3, to pass just north of Darwin this evening. Darwin to experience rapid increase in winds later this afternoon and evening.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
The Tiwi Islands and Cape Don to Wadeye. This includes Darwin, Cobourg Peninsula, Pirlangimpi, Milikapiti, Wurrumiyanga and Wadeye.

Watch Zone
From Wadeye (NT) to Troughton Island (WA) including Kalumburu (WA)

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina 02U at 1:30 pm ACST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 140 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 195 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 11.9 degrees South 131.2 degrees East, estimated to be 65 kilometres north northeast of Darwin and 60 kilometres east southeast of Wurrumiyanga.

Movement: west southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

Darwin radar shows Fina close to the southeast coast of Melville Island. Fina is expected to continue moving west southwest to pass north of Darwin this evening.

After passing Darwin, Fina is forecast to maintain severe tropical cyclone intensity on Sunday and into Monday as it moves through the southern Timor Sea, and then start weakening during Monday or Tuesday near the Kimberley coast.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 185 km/h are likely along the southeastern coast of Tiwi Islands moving west during the day, with a chance of reaching Wurrumiyanga this evening. Very destructive wind gusts are likely about exposed coastal sites northeast of Darwin (including Gunn Point and Cape Hotham) today but the risk at Darwin is assessed as low.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/h are likely to extend west to southern parts of the Tiwi islands, including Wurrumiyanga during the day. Destructive gusts are expected to extend to the Darwin region later today and possibly to Dundee Beach tonight.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring over Melville Island, adjacent Bathurst Is and northeast of Darwin to Point Stuart. Gales are expected to extend further west to include Darwin this afternoon and across the remainder of the Tiwi Islands during the day. Gales may extend southwest to Daly River Mouth overnight, and if Fina takes a more southerly track, gales could extend south to Wadeye on Sunday.

Later Sunday or on Monday, GALES may extend to coastal parts of the north Kimberley in WA, from Kalumburu to the WA/NT Border, but not including Wyndham or Kununurra.

HEAVY to LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible along coastal areas between the Tiwi Islands and the Cobourg Peninsula, extending to coastal and adjacent inland areas across the western Top End including Darwin later today and on Sunday.

Coastal residents on the Tiwi Islands, and between Cape Hotham and Warruwi are specifically warned that tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with LARGE WAVES and MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
NTES advises people in the path of the dangerous cyclone about southern Melville Island and Cape Hotham to Point Stuart, should stay calm and remain in a secure shelter while the destructive winds continue. Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone - destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any time. Heed the advice and follow the instructions of Emergency Services personnel and local authorities.

NTES advises people on the Tiwi Islands, and elsewhere between Daly River Mouth to Cape Don, including Darwin, Batchelor and Cobourg Peninsula should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property, using available daylight hours. NTES advises people elsewhere near and between Wadeye and south of Daly River Mouth, should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Secure NT website (https://securent.nt.gov.au). For emergency assistance call the Northern Territory Emergency Service (NTES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 2:30 pm ACST Saturday 22 November.

This advice is available on telephone at 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (ACST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 pm November 22	3	11.9S	131.2E	20
+6hr	8 pm November 22	3	12.1S	130.7E	40
+12hr	2 am November 23	3	12.3S	130.2E	55
+18hr	8 am November 23	3	12.5S	129.8E	75
+24hr	2 pm November 23	4	12.8S	129.3E	85
+36hr	2 am November 24	4	13.1S	128.6E	110
+48hr	2 pm November 24	4	13.3S	127.8E	140
+60hr	2 am November 25	3	13.3S	127.0E	165
+72hr	2 pm November 25	2	13.3S	126.3E	175