18W(TD 09)机构发报专帖

yhh

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 200000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 09 INITIAL TIME 200000 UTC
00HR 29.2N 127.3E 1007HPA 13M/S
MOVE NNE 18KM/H
P+12HR 31.1N 127.7E 1007HPA 13M/S
P+24HR 32.3N 128.2E 1007HPA 13M/S
P+36HR 32.8N 128.6E 1007HPA 13M/S=
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yhh

台 风 公 报
预报：王海平  签发：吕心艳  2025 年 08 月 20 日 10 时
中央气象台8月20日10时继续发布热带低压预报：

东海热带低压的中心今天（20日）上午8点钟位于日本鹿儿岛西南方向约405公里的海面上，就是北纬29.2度、东经127.3度，中心附近最大风力有6级（13米/秒），中心最低气压为1007百帕。

预计，该低压将以每小时15-20公里的速度向北偏东方向移动，强度变化不大。

大风预报：20日14时至21日14时，东海东部和西南部海域有6~7级风，阵风可达8级。

ygsj24

WTPN32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 004   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200000Z --- NEAR 29.4N 127.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 29.4N 127.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 30.9N 127.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 32.2N 128.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 33.0N 129.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 33.5N 129.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 33.7N 130.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 29.8N 127.5E.
20AUG25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 251 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS
TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200000Z IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//
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ygsj24

熱帶低氣壓
在香港時間 2025 年 08 月 20 日 08 時的最新資料

位置:  北緯 29.2 度，東經 127.2 度 (即香港之東北偏東約 1510 公里)
中心附近最高持續風速:  每小時 45 公里

位於東海的熱帶氣旋會在今明兩日移向日本九州以西海域並逐漸減弱。



預測的位置和強度

香港時間	位置		熱帶氣旋類別	中心附近最高持續風速
2025 年 08 月 21 日 08 時	北 緯 32.0 度	東 經 128.3 度	熱帶低氣壓	每小時 45 公里
2025 年 08 月 21 日 20 時	北 緯 32.5 度	東 經 128.8 度	低壓區	每小時 40 公里

ygsj24

熱帶性低氣壓TD15

現況
2025年08月20日08時
中心位置在北緯 29.3 度，東經 127.4 度
過去移動方向 北北東
過去移動時速 19公里
中心氣壓 1008百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺

預測
預測 6 小時平均移向移速為
北北東 時速 15 公里
預測 08月20日14時
中心位置在北緯 30.1 度，東經 127.6 度
中心氣壓1008百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 45 公里

預測 6-12 小時平均移向移速為
北 時速 20 公里
預測 08月20日20時
中心位置在北緯 31.2 度，東經 127.7 度
中心氣壓1008百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 90 公里

預測 12-18 小時平均移向移速為
北北東 時速 13 公里
預測 08月21日02時
中心位置在北緯 31.9 度，東經 127.9 度
中心氣壓1008百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 110 公里

預測 18-24 小時平均移向移速為
北北東 時速 10 公里
預測 08月21日08時
中心位置在北緯 32.4 度，東經 128.2 度
中心氣壓1010百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 130 公里

預測 24-36 小時平均移向移速為
北北東 時速 6 公里
預測 08月21日20時
中心位置在北緯 32.9 度，東經 128.6 度
中心氣壓1010百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺
70%機率半徑 160 公里

ygsj24

WDPN32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN)
WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 29.4N 127.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 251 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE POSITION AND INTENSITY IS
ANALYZED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 200020Z METOP-B ASCAT WIND
VECTOR IMAGE REVEALING A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH ENHANCED WINDS ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CENTER.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 192030Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 18W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. BETWEEN TAU 48-72, THE CIRCULATION WILL HAVE CURVED
EASTWARD WHILE MAKING LANDFALL ON KYUSHU. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE UNFAVORABLY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET TO THE NORTH. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO IMPOSE UPON
THE CIRCULATION FROM THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 35KTS WILL OCCUR IN THE
EARLY-TERM FORECAST WHILE SHEAR IS MARGINAL. HOWEVER, THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME STREAMLINED AND SHEAR WILL INCREASE
UNFAVORABLY, RESULTING IN WEAKENING AFTER TAU 36. BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, TD 18W WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND ON KYUSHU.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT TD 18W WILL CURVE TOWARDS KYUSHU AFTER TAU 48,
HOWEVER THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE DEPICTS THE SHARPEST CURVE TO THE EAST, WHILE UKMET
LIES FARTHEST TO THE WEST. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN BETTER
AGREEMENT, WITH PEAK INTENSITIES CLOSER TO 35KTS BETWEEN TAU 24-48.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN

yhh

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 200300
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 09 INITIAL TIME 200300 UTC
00HR 29.7N 127.6E 1007HPA 13M/S
MOVE N 17KM/H
P+12HR 31.5N 127.8E 1007HPA 13M/S
P+24HR 32.3N 128.3E 1007HPA 13M/S
P+36HR 32.8N 128.7E 1007HPA 13M/S=
NNNN

yhh

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 200600
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 09 INITIAL TIME 200600 UTC
00HR 30.7N 127.9E 1007HPA 13M/S
MOVE N 13KM/H
P+12HR 32.0N 127.9E 1007HPA 13M/S
P+24HR 32.6N 128.4E 1007HPA 13M/S=
NNNN

ygsj24

ygsj24

WTPN32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 005   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200600Z --- NEAR 30.3N 127.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 30.3N 127.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 31.7N 128.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 32.6N 129.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 33.2N 129.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 33.6N 130.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 30.7N 128.0E.
20AUG25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 191 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS
TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200600Z IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.//
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