LOW - 雅浦岛西北90W - 11.2N 137.3E - 逐渐西行发展，远期或进入南海

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eoj329

香港400km外掠過，移向海南。

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eoj329 发表于 2025-8-20 13:59
香港400km外掠過，移向海南。

感觉海南都快被系集排除了

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZAUG2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200151ZAUG2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 20AUG25 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 127.4E, APPROXIMATELY 251 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 200300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.2N 137.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 132.2E, APPROXIMATELY 672 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) AND A 200417Z AMSR2 37GHZ PASS DEPICT A BROAD, HIGHLY
DISORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE LIKE FEATURE WITH PERSISTENT, FLARING
CONVECTION AND MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. A 200114Z ASCAT-C 25KM PASS
DEPICTS A TROPICAL WAVE WITH 05-15 KNOT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OF 5-10 KNOTS, MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF (SST) OF 29-30 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES
ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON INTENSITY BUT SHOW CONFIDENCE ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS LUZON, PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

jason007

是不是拉尼娜年的台风都是这个衰样子？

双眼台风

今年都是近海加强，远洋没猛货

恒信金仁

jason007 发表于 2025-8-20 16:00
是不是拉尼娜年的台风都是这个衰样子？

没试过今年这么衰 8月下旬没C4

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