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墨西哥西南热带风暴“科斯梅”(03E.Cosme) - 远期与02E藤原

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论坛版主-副热带高压

明天见,是最伟大的预言

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发表于 2025-6-11 22:40 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 yhh 于 2025-6-11 23:35 编辑






WTPZ43 KNHC 111435
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
800 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025

Drier mid-level air and stable atmospheric conditions have taken
their toll on Cosme. The system has been devoid of deep convection
for more than 12 hours, with only a swirl of low- to mid-level
clouds evident on satellite imagery. The initial intensity has
been lowered to 30 kt. Given the hostile environment and ongoing
lack of convection, Cosme is not expected to redevelop, and this
will be the final advisory.

The low is now moving toward the east-northeast at about 070/6 kt.
Global model guidance indicates a gradual turn toward the
north-northeast later today, followed by a turn to the north on
Thursday, as the system steadily spins down and dissipates over the
next day or so.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 16.4N 113.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H  12/0000Z 17.0N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  12/1200Z 17.8N 113.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Gibbs

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生命因何而沉睡,因为总有一天我们会从梦中醒来
发表于 2025-6-12 04:45 | 显示全部楼层
稍早前ASCAT风场扫描




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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。

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顶级超台

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发表于 2025-6-12 10:10 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测公报
预报:柳龙生  签发:董林  2025 年 06 月 12 日 10 时

“科斯梅”减弱为热带低压

“科斯梅”(热带低压)已于今天凌晨(北京时)在东北太平洋减弱为热带低压,中央气象台停止对其监视。

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顶级超台

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发表于 2025-6-12 19:40 | 显示全部楼层
2025 - 097 - EPA1 - EP03 - COSME
持续时长:144 小时
最大风速:60 节
最低气压:992 百帕
ACE:2.7775

时刻(UTC)所在纬度所在经度风速(节)气压(百帕)强度等级
2025/06/05 12:009.6N103.5W150DB
2025/06/05 18:009.6N103.8W150DB
2025/06/06 00:009.7N104.2W150DB
2025/06/06 06:009.8N104.6W150DB
2025/06/06 12:0010.0N105.0W201007DB
2025/06/06 18:0010.1N105.7W201007DB
2025/06/07 00:0010.1N106.8W201007DB
2025/06/07 06:0010.1N107.8W251007DB
2025/06/07 12:0010.3N108.5W251007DB
2025/06/07 18:0010.9N108.8W251007LO
2025/06/08 00:0011.5N109.2W251006LO
2025/06/08 06:0011.8N109.8W301006LO
2025/06/08 12:0012.3N110.4W301001TD
2025/06/08 18:0013.0N110.8W40999TS
2025/06/09 00:0013.5N111.5W40999TS
2025/06/09 06:0014.0N112.3W45999TS
2025/06/09 12:0014.4N113.0W55994TS
2025/06/09 18:0014.8N113.8W60992TS
2025/06/10 00:0015.0N114.1W60992TS
2025/06/10 06:0015.2N114.5W60993TS
2025/06/10 12:0015.4N114.8W55996TS
2025/06/10 18:0015.6N115.1W50999TS
2025/06/11 00:0015.8N115.0W401005TS
2025/06/11 06:0016.0N114.7W401006TS
2025/06/11 12:0016.2N113.9W301007LO





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