MEDIUM - 波纳佩岛以西90W - 7.5N 153.3E - 数值看好强度 - JMA:TD

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 080200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/080200Z-080600ZAPR2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071952ZAPR2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071951ZAPR2026//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.2N
155.4E, APPROXIMATELY 234 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC
TURNING WITH DENSE FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.
THE POSITION IS BASED ON THE CENTROID OF THE OVERALL CIRCULATION AND
PROMINENT MID-LEVEL FLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 90W IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT BEING CENTERED IN
A LOWER POCKET (10-15 KT) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND A POINT SOURCE JUST EAST ASSISTING WITH
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
WESTWARD TRACK WITH INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 07APR26 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 21.1S 177.0E, APPROXIMATELY 197 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI,
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO
110 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS32 PGTW 072100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 07APR26 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 9.5S 156.0E, APPROXIMATELY 743 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 125 KNOTS GUSTING TO
150 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPS31 PGTW 072100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1).//
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ABPW10 PGTW 080200 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED CORRECTED/080200Z-080600ZAPR2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071952ZAPR2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071951ZAPR2026//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.4N
153.0E, APPROXIMATELY 89 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC
TURNING WITH DENSE FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.
THE POSITION IS BASED ON THE CENTROID OF THE OVERALL CIRCULATION AND
PROMINENT MID-LEVEL FLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 90W IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT BEING CENTERED IN
A LOWER POCKET (10-15 KT) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND A POINT SOURCE JUST EAST ASSISTING WITH
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
WESTWARD TRACK WITH INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 07APR26 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 21.1S 177.0E, APPROXIMATELY 197 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI,
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO
110 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS32 PGTW 072100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 07APR26 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 9.5S 156.0E, APPROXIMATELY 743 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 125 KNOTS GUSTING TO
150 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPS31 PGTW 072100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1).
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED INVEST 90W POSITION BASED
OFF OF THE 072354Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALING THE BROAD AND
DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CENTER FARTHER SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ASSESSED
POSITION.//
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红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 18Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

今天早晨ASCAT风场扫描

dgitg5266

As of 2:00 AM today, 08 April 2026, a Low Pressure area (LPA 04a) is being monitored outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and has a "HIGH" chance of developing into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
All are advised to monitor updates from DOST-PAGASA.

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 00Z维持LPA

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 07N 154E ALMOST STATIONARY.

dgitg5266

As of 8:00 AM today, 08 April 2026, a Low Pressure area (LPA 04a) is being monitored within the monitoring domain (TCID) of PAGASA and has a "HIGH" chance of developing into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
All are advised to monitor updates from DOST-PAGASA.

桑美和伊欧凯

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2026-4-8 10:03
ECMWF 18Z系集

支持高强度的成员挺多的，有2015年美莎克的意思了，但不一定登陆菲律宾

Enceladus

看起来初具规模

Enceladus

FNV3 0718Z 西调至马里亚纳群岛东

红豆棒冰冰

ABPW10 PGTW 080600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/080600Z-090600ZAPR2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080152ZAPR2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080151ZAPR2026//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.7N 153.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 153.0E, APPROXIMATELY 89 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT
A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING WITH DENSE FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE POSITION IS BASED ON THE CENTROID OF THE
OVERALL CIRCULATION AND PROMINENT MID-LEVEL FLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES 90W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
BEING CENTERED IN A LOWER POCKET (10-15 KT) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM
(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND A POINT SOURCE JUST EAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSISTING WITH MODERATE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TRACK WITH
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 08APR26 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 22.2S 177.4E, APPROXIMATELY 252 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI,
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO
100 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS32 PGTW 080300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 08APR26 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 9.0S 155.9E, APPROXIMATELY 757 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO 140
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPS31 PGTW 080300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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