所罗门海五级强热带气旋“迈拉”(37U/30P.Maila) - 巴新十八年来首个命名热带气旋，在所罗门海回旋 - BoM:115KT JTWC:125KT

ygsj24

WTPS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR 009   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z --- NEAR 9.9S 156.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 156.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 9.7S 156.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 9.4S 156.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 9.5S 155.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 9.7S 154.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 10.4S 151.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 11.6S 148.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 12.3S 146.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 9.9S 156.4E.
07APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 667
NM SOUTH OF KAPINGAMARANGI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070000Z IS 963 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 070300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR
   
4. 009//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 9.9S 156.4E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 667 NM SOUTH OF KAPINGAMARANGI
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN INNER
    
18. CONVECTIVE CORE THAT REMAINS ASYMMETRIC, WITH INFRARED AND VISIBLE
    
19. IMAGERY BOTH SUGGESTING AN INCOMPLETE EYEWALL IS PRESENT. THE EYE
    
20. ITSELF HAS RECENTLY BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED IN JUST THE PAST
    
21. 2 HOURS, BUT OVERALL HAS REMAINED MOSTLY CLOUD-COVERED OVER THE
    
22. PAST 6 HOURS. COUPLED MODELS CONTINUE TO ANALYZE A POOL OF UPWELLED
    
23. WATER COOLER THAN 26 DEGREES CELSIUS BENEATH AT LEAST A PORTION OF
    
24. THE VORTEX. ASIDE FROM THIS UPWELLING, THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY
    
25. FAVORABLE, WITH LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR BEING THE ONLY OTHER
    
26. HINDRANCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 90 KT BASED ON A BLEND
    
27. OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES, OBJECTIVE SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES,
    
28. AND A 061906Z RCM-3 SAR PASS. THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
    
29. THIS ESTIMATE, AS THE SHORT-TERM DIRECTIONAL INTENSITY TREND HAS
    
30. NOT YET BECOME CLEAR.
    
31. 
    
32. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
33. 
    
34. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: EQUATORIAL WESTERLY WIND BURST TO THE
    
35. NORTH AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER AUSTRALIA TO THE SOUTHWEST
    
36. 
    
37. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
38.    PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
39.    KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
    
40.    ABRF: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
41.    CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 062030Z
    
42.    CIMSS AIDT: 63 KTS AT 062030Z
    
43.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 99 KTS AT 070040Z
    
44. 
    
45. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
46.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
47.    SST: 24-28 CELSIUS
    
48.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
    
49.    OTHER FACTORS: PROBABLE OCEANIC UPWELLING BENEATH THE VORTEX
    
50. 
    
51. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
52.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
53.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
54.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
55. 
    
56. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
57. 
    
58. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
59. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
60. 
    
61. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) REMAINS A TRICKY
    
62. STORM TO PREDICT ACROSS MULTIPLE DIMENSIONS OF THE FORECAST. MAILA
    
63. CONTINUES TO MEANDER SLOWLY IN THE SOLOMON SEA, MIRED BETWEEN A
    
64. NEAR-EQUATORIAL WESTERLY WIND BURST TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL
    
65. RIDGE OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA TO THE SOUTHWEST. COUPLED MODELS LIKE
    
66. HAFS-A AND HWRF ASSESS THAT THIS SLOW MOTION HAS GENERATED OCEANIC
    
67. UPWELLING OF WATERS COOLER THAN 26 DEGREES CELSIUS BENEATH THE
    
68. STORM, LIKELY CAUSING THE OBSERVED STRUCTURAL DEFECTS OF THE INNER
    
69. CORE. THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CHALLENGE. COUPLED
    
70. MODELS EXPECT THE INNER CORE TO BACKTRACK WESTWARD OVER THE COLD
    
71. WAKE, CAUSING TEMPORARY WEAKENING. HOWEVER, SLIGHT DEVIATIONS IN
    
72. THIS TRACK COULD CHANGE HOW MUCH OF THE INNER CORE OVERLAPS THE COLD
    
73. WAKE, ALTERING THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING, OR EVEN RESULTING IN
    
74. STRENGTHENING INSTEAD. THE SHORT-TERM TRACK IS ALSO DIFFICULT, AS
    
75. MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW SOON MAILA WILL BEGIN ACCELERATING WESTWARD
    
76. TOWARDS PAPUA NEW GUINEA. THE GFS, ECMWF, AND HAFS-A CONTINUE TO BE
    
77. MUCH FASTER THAN THE UKMET, GALWEM, AIFS, AND EXPERIMENTAL GOOGLE
    
78. DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SPLIT THE
    
79. DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO GROUPS, SHOWING 30P APPROACHING THE
    
80. PAPUAN PENINSULA JUST AFTER 72 HOURS. BY THIS TIME, THE CYCLONE'S
    
81. WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE CARRIED IT BEYOND ITS ORIGINAL
    
82. COLD WAKE, ALLOWING SOME REINTENSIFICATION TO AROUND 100 KT.
    
83. HOWEVER, RISING MID-LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH THE
    
84. TALL OWEN STANLEY MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO ABRUPTLY DISRUPT AND
    
85. WEAKEN MAILA AS IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE PAPUAN PENINSULA. THE
    
86. DEGREE OF WEAKENING WILL BE QUITE SENSITIVE TO HOW CLOSE THE
    
87. CYCLONE PASSES TO THE PENINSULA. AS A RESULT, MODEL INTENSITY
    
88. SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE AT AND BEYOND 72 HOURS. DURING THE 96 TO 120
    
89. HOUR PERIOD, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN AUSTRALIA
    
90. AND THE CORAL SEA IS EXPECTED TO DIRECT 30P WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
    
91. TOWARDS NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA.
    
92. 
    
93. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE
    
94. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE TWO GROUPINGS OF FAST AND SLOW
    
95. MODEL PROJECTIONS. CROSS-TRACK MODEL SPREAD IS AVERAGE, BUT
    
96. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS LARGER THAN NORMAL. THE JTWC INTENSITY
    
97. FORECAST LEANS STRONGLY TOWARD THE COUPLED MODELS HAFS-A AND HWRF
    
98. SHORT-TERM DUE TO THEIR AWARENESS OF OCEANIC UPWELLING OCCURRING
    
99. BENEATH THE VORTEX, THEN CLOSE TO THE BROADER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
    
100. AFTER 36 HOURS.
     
101. 
     
102. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
103.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
104.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
     
105.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
     
106.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
     
107. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹越男  签发：张 玲  2026 年 04 月 07 日 10 时
“迈拉”移速缓慢

时  间: 7日08时(北京时，下同)

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “迈拉”，MAILA

中心位置: 南纬10.0度，东经156.3度

强度等级: 三级强热带气旋

最大风力: 13级，41米/秒，相当于我国的台风级

中心气压: 962百帕

参考位置: 距离澳大利亚昆士兰州凯恩斯东北方向约1375公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“迈拉”由12级加强为13级

预报结论: 预计，“迈拉”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向东南方向移动，强度维持。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年4月7日08时00分）

“韦亚努”向南偏东方向移动

时  间: 7日08时

海  域: 南太平洋

命  名: “韦亚努”，VAIANU

中心位置: 南纬18.1度，东经174.8度

强度等级: 三级强热带气旋

最大风力: 14级，43米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级

中心气压: 955百帕

参考位置: 距离斐济苏瓦西方向约385公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“韦亚努”由10级加强为14级

预报结论: 预计，“韦亚努”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向南偏东方向移动，强度维持。



图2  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年4月7日08时00分）

pocketbox

IDQ20065
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 4:45 pm EST on Tuesday 7 April 2026

At 4 pm AEST Tuesday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila (Category 4) with central
pressure 951 hPa was located near latitude 9.9 south longitude 156.4 east,
which is about 395 km west of Honiara and 1020 km east of Port Moresby.

The cyclone is slow moving.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila, 37U, is currently located over the Solomon Sea.
The steering influences are nearly balanced and Maila is expected to remain
slow moving this evening before it begins turning west southwest during
Wednesday.

Maila is expected to remain well away from the Queensland coast during the next
few days, but from late week Maila is forecast to be moving towards the Far
North Queensland coast. It may cross the Cape York Peninsula during the weekend
or early next week.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11:00 pm AEST Tuesday 07 April.

---

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0710 UTC 07/04/2026
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila
Identifier: 37U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 9.9S
Longitude: 156.4E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: northeast (045 deg)
Speed of Movement: 1 knots (3 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots (165 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots (230 km/h)
Central Pressure: 951 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 190 nm (350 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  07/1200:  9.8S 156.3E:     030 (060):  090  (165):  950
+12:  07/1800:  9.8S 156.1E:     040 (075):  095  (175):  945
+18:  08/0000:  9.6S 155.9E:     050 (095):  095  (175):  945
+24:  08/0600:  9.5S 155.7E:     055 (095):  095  (175):  944
+36:  08/1800:  9.5S 154.9E:     065 (120):  095  (175):  946
+48:  09/0600:  9.9S 153.8E:     075 (140):  100  (185):  941
+60:  09/1800: 10.5S 152.4E:     080 (150):  075  (140):  967
+72:  10/0600: 11.2S 150.8E:     095 (175):  070  (130):  971
+96:  11/0600: 12.1S 147.5E:     135 (250):  070  (130):  971
+120: 12/0600: 12.3S 145.0E:     180 (330):  065  (120):  974
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila has intensified to category 4 while over the
Solomon Sea.

Position is based on animated visible imagery with good confidence. An eye
remains evident on satellite imagery and also in AMSR2 microwave imagery at
0335 UTC. Minimal change to structure since this morning is analysed, (for
gales and storm force winds this is based largely on ASCAT at 2237 UTC).

Intensity is assessed at 90 kn, and is in line with Dvorak and the consensus of
objective aids. Some aids are higher and current intensity may be 90 to 95
knots.

Dvorak analysis, a WMG eye with LG surrounds and eye adjustment of 1.0 due to W
surrounding ring, yields a 3 hour average DT of 5.5. MET=5.5 based on a D+ 24h
trend with no adjustment to PT. FT/CI=5.5/5.5. Available objective guidance at
0520 UTC (all 1-minute mean) includes ADT 99 kn, AiDT 95 kn, DPRINT 100 kn,
DMINT 93kn (0301 UTC), MW Sounders 107 kn (0259 UTC) and SATCON 104 kn (0410
UTC).

Maila lies in a generally favourable environment with moderate vertical wind
shear (CIMSS analysis at 0000 UTC 20 knots ENE), a moist environment and good
upper-level divergence. However the intensity forecast for Maila is difficult
with some guidance indicating an intense system persisting until land
interactions, and other guidance suggesting weakening before this. The slow
motion may cause upwelling of cooler waters and the system remaining over these
cooler waters may induce some weakening. The short term forecast is for a small
amount of intensification, before interaction with PNG causes weakening,
however, some fluctuations are anticipated. The longer term intensity as it
approaches the Queensland coast may depend on the systems interaction with PNG,
as well as how quickly Maila moves west which leads to some variations in
guidance and there is potential for Maila to be influenced by some vertical
wind shear before reaching Queensland.

The steering pattern is changing and Maila is only moving slowly while this
occurs. A new mid-level ridge is building to the southwest and this is expected
to become the dominant steering influence moving Maila to the northwest this
evening. In the coming days the mid-level ridge is forecast to extend
eastwards, to the south and southeast of Maila, and by Thursday is expected to
steer Maila west southwest. This takes Maila past southeastern PNG, and they
could face a prolonged period of very hazardous winds.

After passing PNG, Maila is expected to continue moving generally west, towards
the Cape York Peninsula. However, there is considerable spread in the speed of
motion and impacts could occur as early as Friday night or be delayed until
early next week.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 07/1330 UTC.

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	4 pm April 7	4	9.9S	156.4E	35
+6hr	10 pm April 7	4	9.8S	156.3E	60
+12hr	4 am April 8	4	9.8S	156.1E	75
+18hr	10 am April 8	4	9.6S	155.9E	95
+24hr	4 pm April 8	4	9.5S	155.7E	95
+36hr	4 am April 9	4	9.5S	154.9E	120
+48hr	4 pm April 9	4	9.9S	153.8E	140
+60hr	4 am April 10	3	10.5S	152.4E	150
+72hr	4 pm April 10	3	11.2S	150.8E	175

桑美和伊欧凯

真白理可 发表于 2026-4-6 21:39
怎麼說呢，這孩子不是切崩就是冷崩

甚至90W發展起來就會切崩在西澳的30P

机构不看好麦拉离开所罗门海之后会有更大的突破，估计也是有这方面的考量

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：张怡驰、曹越男  签发：张 玲  2026 年 04 月 07 日 18 时
“迈拉”回旋少动

时  间: 7日14时(北京时，下同)

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “迈拉”，MAILA

中心位置: 南纬9.9度，东经156.4度

强度等级: 四级强热带气旋

最大风力: 15级，46米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级

中心气压: 951百帕

参考位置: 距离澳大利亚昆士兰州凯恩斯东北方向约1380公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“迈拉”由12级加强为15级

预报结论: 预计，“迈拉”将回旋少动，强度维持或还将略有加强 。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年4月7日14时00分）

“韦亚努”向东南方向移动

时  间: 7日14时

海  域: 南太平洋

命  名: “韦亚努”，VAIANU

中心位置: 南纬18.9度，东经175.4度

强度等级: 三级强热带气旋

最大风力: 14级，43米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级

中心气压: 955百帕

参考位置: 距离斐济苏瓦西偏南方向约324公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“韦亚努”由11级加强为14级

预报结论: 预计，“韦亚努”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向东南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。



图2  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年4月7日14时00分）

ygsj24

WTPS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR 010   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070600Z --- NEAR 9.9S 156.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 156.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 9.7S 156.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 9.5S 155.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 9.5S 155.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 9.7S 154.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 10.5S 151.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 11.7S 149.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 12.7S 146.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 9.9S 156.5E.
07APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 668
NM SOUTH OF KAPINGAMARANGI, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070600Z IS 953 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 070900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR
   
4. 010//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 9.9S 156.5E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 668 NM SOUTH OF KAPINGAMARANGI
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 01 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EASILY
    
18. IDENTIFIABLE, SLIGHTLY IRREGULAR EYE FEATURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
19. (TC) 30P (MAILA). SINCE THE LAST WARNING, THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS
    
20. INCREASED 16 DEGREES C (TO A CURRENT ESTIMATE OF 9 C), WHILE THE
    
21. CLOUD TOPS REMAINED COLD AT -83 C. SIGNIFICANT CONSOLIDATION
    
22. OCCURRED, WITH THE MORE SYMMETRICAL EYEWALL NOW PRESENT WITHIN ALL
    
23. QUADRANTS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MOSTLY FAVORABLE
    
24. CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
    
25. (VWS), PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC
    
26. COLUMN, AND A GOOD, PRIMARILY WESTWARD, OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE ONLY
    
27. FACTOR POTENTIALLY CAPPING THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IS THE
    
28. EFFECT OF COLD WATER UPWELLING DEPICTED BY COUPLED MESOSCALE MODELS
    
29. (HAFS AND HWRF). THE IMPACT OF THAT HOWEVER, SEEMS NOT TO BE
    
30. SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO RESULT IN ANY FORM OF WEAKENING,
    
31. AS WITNESSED BY IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, SYMMETRY, AND WARMING
    
32. EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
    
33. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS
    
34. ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF AGENCY
    
35. DVORAK FIXES AND AUTOMATED ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW COLLECTIVELY
    
36. INDICATING INTENSIFICATION SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
    
37. 
    
38. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
39. 
    
40. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
41. CENTERED
    
42. OVER AUSTRALIA TO THE SOUTHWEST
    
43. 
    
44. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
45.    PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
    
46.    KNES: T6.5 - 127 KTS
    
47.    ABRF: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
48.    CIMSS SATCON: 97 KTS AT 070259Z
    
49.    CIMSS ADT: 102 KTS AT 070540Z
    
50.    CIMSS AIDT: 98 KTS AT 070630Z
    
51.    CIMSS D-MINT: 119 KTS AT 070715Z
    
52.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 106 KTS AT 070800Z
    
53. 
    
54. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
55.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
56.    SST: 24-29 CELSIUS
    
57.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
    
58.    OTHER FACTORS: COOL WATER UPWELLING RESULTING IN SLOW
    
59. TRANSLATIONAL SPEEDS IN VICINITY OF THE CURRENT TRACK
    
60. 
    
61. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
62.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
63.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
64.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
65. 
    
66. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
67. 
    
68. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: PREVIOUSLY ASSESSED SLIGHT WEAKENING
    
69. TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAS SHIFTED INTO A POTENTIAL FOR
    
70. INTENSIFICATION, WITH PEAK INTENSITY NOW ESTIMATED AT AROUND
    
71. 115-120 KTS.
    
72. 
    
73. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 30P IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
    
74. OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, WHILE SLOWLY RESPONDING TO THE STEERING
    
75. MECHANISM FROM THE STR CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER TAU 24, THE
    
76. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACCELERATING AS IT TRACKS WEST-
    
77. SOUTHWESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE PAPUAN PENINSULA. THE CURRENT
    
78. FORECAST ENDS BEFORE TC 30P APPROACHES THE QUEENSLAND COASTLINE.
    
79. INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
    
80. ASSOCIATED WITH UPWELLING EFFECTS MENTIONED EARLIER. HAFS AND HWRF
    
81. DEPICT A RELATIVELY BROAD POOL OF SUB-26 DEGREE WATER IN CLOSE
    
82. PROXIMITY TO THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    
83. (LLCC). AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM
    
84. CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY, EITHER DUE TO THE COLD WATER POOL BEING
    
85. SMALLER THAN DEPICTED, THE TRACK BEING FAR ENOUGH, OR THE SEA
    
86. SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING HIGHER THAN PREDICTED BY THE COUPLED
    
87. MESOSCALE MODELS. WITH OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS BEING MOSTLY
    
88. FAVORABLE, TC 30P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AND REACHING
    
89. AROUND 115 KTS BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48. AFTER THAT, TC MAILA IS
    
90. EXPECTED TO START WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING MID-LEVEL VERTICAL
    
91. WIND SHEAR (REACHING AS HIGH AS 35-40 KTS AROUND TAU 72) AND POTENTIAL
    
92. FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION WITH THE OWEN STANLEY
    
93. MOUNTAINS, IF THE SYSTEM PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH.
    
94. 
    
95. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS ASSESSED WITH
    
96. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
    
97. THE MID-POINT BETWEEN THE FASTER DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
    
98. GFS, AVERAGE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, AND SLOWEST UKMET, NAVGEM AND GALWEM.
    
99. WHILE ALL MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL STEERING PATTERN AND A
    
100. WESTWARD, FOLLOWED BY A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, THE TIMELINE OF
     
101. THE INITIAL TURN AS WELL AS THE ACCELERATION AFTERWARDS REMAINS
     
102. HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. AN ADDITIONAL WRINKLE IN THE GUIDANCE IS INTRODUCED
     
103. BY THE LAND INTERACTION EFFECTS, ONLY IF THE SYSTEM TAKES A TRACK
     
104. CLOSER TO PAPUA NEW GUINEA. REGARDING INTENSITY, A RECENT SHIFT IN THE
     
105. INTENSIFICATION TREND, WITNESSED BY THE SIGNIFICANT EYEWALL AND AN
     
106. OVERALL CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION MATCHED BY NEARLY ALL AVAILABLE
     
107. GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARDS STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM AT LEAST UNTIL
     
108. THE INCREASE IN THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL JTWC INTENSITY
     
109. FORECAST IS ONLY ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY
     
110. ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPACTS (OR LACK OF THEREOF) FROM THE COLD WATER
     
111. UPWELLING INDICATED BY HAFS AND HWRF, AS WELL AS A LARGE ALONG-TRACK
     
112. SPREAD. ADDITIONALLY, NUMEROUS RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS WERE
     
113. TRIGGERED DURING THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUN, AND FURTHER POINTS TOWARDS
     
114. A CONSOLIDATION AND AN INTENSIFICATION TREND.
     
115. 
     
116. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
117.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
118.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
     
119.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
     
120.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
     
121. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

IDQ20065
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 10:45 pm EST on Tuesday 7 April 2026

At 10 pm AEST Tuesday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila (Category 4) with central
pressure 936 hPa was located near latitude 9.8 south longitude 156.3 east,
which is about 405 km west of Honiara and 1000 km east of Port Moresby.

The cyclone is slow moving.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila, 37U, is currently located over the Solomon Sea.
The steering influences are nearly balanced and Maila is expected to remain
slow moving tonight before it begins turning west southwest during Wednesday.

Maila is expected to remain well away from the Queensland coast during the next
few days, but from late week Maila is forecast to be moving towards the Far
North Queensland coast. It may cross the Cape York Peninsula during the weekend
or early next week.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5:00 am AEST Wednesday 08 April.

---

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1345 UTC 07/04/2026
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila
Identifier: 37U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 9.8S
Longitude: 156.3E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: northwest (315 deg)
Speed of Movement: 1 knots (3 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 105 knots (195 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 145 knots (270 km/h)
Central Pressure: 936 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm (85 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 45 nm (85 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS SST:D1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 170 nm (315 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  07/1800:  9.7S 156.2E:     025 (050):  105  (195):  935
+12:  08/0000:  9.6S 156.0E:     035 (070):  105  (195):  936
+18:  08/0600:  9.5S 155.8E:     045 (085):  105  (195):  936
+24:  08/1200:  9.4S 155.5E:     050 (090):  105  (195):  936
+36:  09/0000:  9.5S 154.7E:     065 (120):  105  (195):  931
+48:  09/1200:  9.8S 153.6E:     080 (155):  100  (185):  944
+60:  10/0000: 10.4S 152.4E:     095 (175):  080  (150):  964
+72:  10/1200: 10.9S 150.9E:     110 (205):  070  (130):  973
+96:  11/1200: 12.2S 148.3E:     150 (275):  070  (130):  973
+120: 12/1200: 12.9S 145.9E:     195 (355):  065  (120):  976
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila has intensified to category 4 while over the
Solomon Sea.

Position is based on animated EIR imagery with good confidence. An well defined
and warm eye has formed and persisted over the last 6 hours with rapid
intensification occurring with a 25 kn change over the last 12 hours. The
structure has increased slightly based on AMSR2 0335 UTC and a partial SAR 0805
UTC pass.

Intensity is assessed at 105 kn, and is just below subjective Dvorak and the
consensus of objective aids. Some aids are higher and current intensity may be
110 to 115 knots.

Dvorak analysis, at 1200 UTC WMG eye with LG surrounds and eye adjustment of
1.0 due to W surrounding ring, yeilds a DT of 6.0. However, a 3 hour average DT
yields 6.5, peaking at 7.0 between 0900-1100 UTC. MET=6.5 based on a D+ 24h
trend with no adjustment to PT. FT/CI=6.5/6.5. With the DT fluctuating,
intensity set at 105kn, the equivalent of CI of 6.0. Available objective
guidance at 1200 UTC (all 1-minute mean) includes ADT 124 kn, AiDT 121 kn,
DPRINT 120 kn, DMINT 119kn (0715 UTC).

Maila lies in a generally favourable environment with moderate vertical wind
shear (CIMSS analysis at 1200 UTC 23 knots ENE), a moist environment and good
upper-level divergence. However the intensity forecast for Maila is difficult
with some guidance indicating an intense system persisting until land
interactions with Papua New Guinea, and other guidance suggesting weakening
before this. The slow motion may cause upwelling of cooler waters and the
system remaining over these cooler waters may induce some weakening. The short
term forecast is for the system to maintain a high end category 4 system,
however fluctuations are likely to occur and intensification into a category 5
system over the next 24 hours may occur. From Thursday interactions with Papua
New Guinea and slightly higher shear will cause the system to start to weaken.
The longer term intensity as it approaches the Queensland coast may depend on
the systems interaction with PNG, as well as how quickly Maila moves west which
leads to some variations in guidance and there is potential for Maila to be
influenced by some vertical wind shear before reaching Queensland.

The steering pattern is changing and Maila is only moving slowly while this
occurs. A new mid-level ridge is building to the southwest and this is starting
to become the dominant steering influence, and Maila is now moving to the
northwest In the coming days the mid-level ridge is forecast to extend
eastwards, to the south and southeast of Maila, and by Thursday is expected to
steer Maila west southwest. This takes Maila past southeastern PNG, and they
could face a prolonged period of very hazardous winds.

After passing PNG, Maila is expected to continue moving generally west, towards
the Cape York Peninsula. However, there is considerable spread in the speed of
motion and impacts could occur as early as Friday night or be delayed until
early next week.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 07/1930 UTC.

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	10 pm April 7	4	9.8S	156.3E	30
+6hr	4 am April 8	4	9.7S	156.2E	50
+12hr	10 am April 8	4	9.6S	156.0E	70
+18hr	4 pm April 8	4	9.5S	155.8E	85
+24hr	10 pm April 8	4	9.4S	155.5E	90
+36hr	10 am April 9	4	9.5S	154.7E	120
+48hr	10 pm April 9	4	9.8S	153.6E	155
+60hr	10 am April 10	3	10.4S	152.4E	175
+72hr	10 pm April 10	3	10.9S	150.9E	205

pocketbox

WTPS31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR 011   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z --- NEAR 9.7S 156.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.7S 156.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 9.4S 156.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 9.2S 155.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 9.2S 154.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 9.4S 153.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 10.6S 151.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 11.8S 149.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 12.8S 146.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 9.6S 156.2E.
07APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 654
NM SOUTH OF KAPINGAMARANGI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071200Z IS 943 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 071500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR
   
4. 011//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 9.7S 156.3E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 654 NM SOUTH OF KAPINGAMARANGI
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 34 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
    
18. DISCERNIBLE AND FULLY SYMMETRIC, CENTRAL EYE FEATURE OF TROPICAL
    
19. CYCLONE (TC) 30P (MAILA), RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
    
20. INITIAL POSITION ASSESSMENT. THE TEMPERATURE OF THE EYE HAS WARMED
    
21. SLIGHTLY SINCE THE LAST WARNING OCCURRING BENEATH A PERSISTENT CANOPY
    
22. OF VERY COLD DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR -83
    
23. C. THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE SUBSTANTIAL AXISYMMETRIZATION,
    
24. RESULTING IN A MORE UNIFORM AND ROBUST EYEWALL STRUCTURE NOW
    
25. EVIDENT ACROSS ALL QUADRANTS, INDICATING SLOW, BUT STEADY
    
26. INTENSIFICATION. SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT REVEALS LARGELY SUPPORTIVE
    
27. CONDITIONS, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
    
28. AMPLE TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT, AND A WELL-ESTABLISHED,
    
29. PREDOMINANTLY WESTWARD, UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE PRIMARY
    
30. ANTAGONISTIC FACTOR HOLDING A POTENTIAL FOR HALTING THE
    
31. INTENSIFICATION RATE IS THE OCEANIC FEEDBACK MECHANISM OF COLD
    
32. WATER UPWELLING, AS SIMULATED BY THE COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE
    
33. MODELS HAFS AND HWRF. THE COOL WATER POOL DEPICTED BY THOSE
    
34. NUMERICAL PREDICTIONS IS DEPICTED RIGHT UNDERNEATH THE CURRENTLY
    
35. FORECAST TRACK. AT THE MOMENT, THE OBSERVED STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENTS
    
36. SUGGEST THIS EFFECT IS CURRENTLY NEGLIGIBLE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
    
37. OF 110 KTS IS DETERMINED WITH MODERATE CERTAINTY, REFLECTING A
    
38. CONSENSUS OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND AUTOMATED SATELLITE-BASED
    
39. ALGORITHMS THAT UNANIMOUSLY INDICATE STRENGTHENING HAS OCCURRED.
    
40. 
    
41. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
42. 
    
43. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
    
44. THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTERED OVER AUSTRALIA
    
45. 
    
46. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
47.    PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
    
48.    KNES: T6.5 - 127 KTS
    
49.    ABRF: T6.5 - 127 KTS
    
50.    CIMSS ADT: 124 KTS AT 071130Z
    
51.    CIMSS AIDT: 120 KTS AT 071130Z
    
52.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 122 KTS AT 071300Z
    
53. 
    
54. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
55.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
56.    SST: 24-29 CELSIUS
    
57.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
    
58. 
    
59. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
60.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
61.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
62.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
63. 
    
64. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
65. 
    
66. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
67. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
68. 
    
69. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 30P IS PROJECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
    
70. WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, AT VERY SLOW (3-4
    
71. KTS) TRANSLATIONAL SPEEDS. SLOW ACCELERATION TOWARD THE
    
72. WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
    
73. POSITIONED TO ITS SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 24. THIS
    
74. TRAJECTORY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TC 30P ON A PATH JUST SOUTH OF THE
    
75. PAPUAN PENINSULA FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
    
76. CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO
    
77. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPWELLING POTENTIAL. THE COUPLED
    
78. MODELS DEPICT A REGION OF OCEANIC COLD WAKE (SUB -26C) IN CLOSE
    
79. PROXIMITY TO THE CURRENT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND EXTENDING
    
80. DIRECTLY IN FRONT OF THE PROJECTED PATH, POTENTIALLY INCREASES THE
    
81. CHANCES OF HALTED INTENSIFICATION. NEVERTHELESS, THE PERSISTENT
    
82. STRENGTHENING TREND SUGGESTS THAT EITHER THIS COLD POOL IS LESS
    
83. EXTENSIVE THAN MODELED, OR THE AMBIENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
    
84. WARMER THAN SIMULATED. GIVEN THE OTHERWISE BENIGN ENVIRONMENTAL
    
85. PARAMETERS, CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED, WITH A PEAK
    
86. INTENSITY NEAR 120 KTS PROJECTED BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36.
    
87. THEREAFTER, A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE DUE
    
88. TO INCREASING MID-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (FORECAST TO REACH
    
89. 30-35 KTS AROUND TAU 72) AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FRICTIONAL
    
90. EFFECTS FROM TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION WITH THE OWEN STANLEY RANGE.
    
91. 
    
92. MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE IS ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
    
93. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE, WHICH IS CENTERED ON THE
    
94. MULTI-MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS CONSENSUS REPRESENTS A
    
95. COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS, THE
    
96. MID-POINT ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND THE SLOWER UKMET, GALWEM AND
    
97. DETERMINISTIC ECMWF TRACKERS. WHILE THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
    
98. THE OVERALL STEERING REGIME AND THE EVOLUTION FROM A WESTWARD TO A
    
99. WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS
    
100. REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE RATE OF ACCELERATION. AN ADDITIONAL
     
101. COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TOPOGRAPHIC ALONG-TRACK
     
102. INTERACTION AND ASSOCIATED WEAKENING, SHOULD THE SYSTEM PROPAGATE
     
103. CLOSER TO PAPUA NEW GUINEA. REGARDING INTENSITY, A RECENT SHIFT
     
104. TOWARDS A MORE ROBUST INTENSIFICATION TREND, EVIDENCED BY THE IMPROVED
     
105. EYEWALL STRUCTURE, IS CORROBORATED BY NEARLY ALL AVAILABLE
     
106. GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS LOW
     
107. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOOMING POTENTIAL
     
108. IMPACTS OF THE UPWELLING PHENOMENA AND A LARGE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD
     
109. IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. FURTHERMORE, THE PERSISTENCE IN THE
     
110. TRIGGERING OF NUMEROUS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDICES IN RECENT
     
111. MODEL CYCLE PROVIDES ADDITIONAL EVIDENCE SUPPORTING A CONTINUED
     
112. CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION TREND.
     
113. 
     
114. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
115.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
116.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
     
117.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
     
118.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
     
119. NNNN

复制代码

ygsj24

IDQ20065
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 4:48 am EST on Wednesday 8 April 2026

At 4 am AEST Wednesday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila (Category 5) with central
pressure 924 hPa was located near latitude 9.6 south longitude 156.1 east,
which is about 425 km west of Honiara and 980 km east of Port Moresby.

The cyclone is slow moving.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila, 37U, is currently located over the Solomon Sea.
The steering influences are nearly balanced and Maila is expected to remain
slow moving tonight before it begins turning west southwest overnight Wednesday.

Maila is expected to remain well away from the Queensland coast during the next
few days, but from late week Maila is forecast to be moving towards the Far
North Queensland coast. It may cross the Cape York Peninsula during the weekend
or early next week.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11:00 am AEST Wednesday 08
April.

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	4 am April 8	5	9.6S	156.1E	30
+6hr	10 am April 8	5	9.5S	155.9E	50
+12hr	4 pm April 8	5	9.4S	155.7E	70
+18hr	10 pm April 8	5	9.4S	155.4E	85
+24hr	4 am April 9	5	9.4S	155.1E	95
+36hr	4 pm April 9	4	9.6S	154.3E	130
+48hr	4 am April 10	4	9.9S	153.2E	165
+60hr	4 pm April 10	3	10.6S	151.9E	205
+72hr	4 am April 11	3	11.2S	150.4E	205

1. IDQ20018
   
2. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
   
3. Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
   
4. at: 1852 UTC 07/04/2026
   
5. Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila
   
6. Identifier: 37U
   
7. Data At: 1800 UTC
   
8. Latitude: 9.6S
   
9. Longitude: 156.1E
   
10. Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
    
11. Movement Towards: northwest (315 deg)
    
12. Speed of Movement: 3 knots (5 km/h)
    
13. Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 115 knots (215 km/h)
    
14. Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 160 knots (295 km/h)
    
15. Central Pressure: 924 hPa
    
16. Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
    
17. Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
    
18. Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
    
19. Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
    
20. Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
    
21. Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm (85 km)
    
22. Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 45 nm (85 km)
    
23. Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
    
24. Radius of 64-knot winds: 40 nm (75 km)
    
25. Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
    
26. Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24HRS SST:S0.0/06HRS
    
27. Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
    
28. Radius of outermost closed isobar: 170 nm (315 km)
    
29. FORECAST DATA
    
30. Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
    
31. (UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
    
32. +06:  08/0000:  9.5S 155.9E:     025 (050):  115  (215):  923
    
33. +12:  08/0600:  9.4S 155.7E:     035 (070):  115  (215):  922
    
34. +18:  08/1200:  9.4S 155.4E:     045 (085):  110  (205):  929
    
35. +24:  08/1800:  9.4S 155.1E:     050 (095):  110  (205):  929
    
36. +36:  09/0600:  9.6S 154.3E:     070 (130):  105  (195):  935
    
37. +48:  09/1800:  9.9S 153.2E:     090 (165):  090  (165):  953
    
38. +60:  10/0600: 10.6S 151.9E:     110 (205):  075  (140):  967
    
39. +72:  10/1800: 11.2S 150.4E:     110 (205):  070  (130):  971
    
40. +96:  11/1800: 12.4S 148.0E:     155 (285):  065  (120):  974
    
41. +120: 12/1800: 12.9S 145.6E:     185 (345):  065  (120):  975
    
42. REMARKS:
    
43. Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila has intensified to category 4 while over the
    
44. Solomon Sea.
    
45. 
    
46. Position is based on animated EIR imagery with good confidence. An well defined
    
47. eye continues but at times is elongated over the last 3 hours. Since 0000 UTC,
    
48. Maila has gone under a period of rapid intensification of 35 kn/18 hours.
    
49. 
    
50. Intensity is assessed at 115 kn, in line with Dvorak and the consensus of
    
51. objective aids. Some aids are higher and current intensity may be 115 to 120
    
52. knots.
    
53. 
    
54. Dvorak analysis, at 1800 UTC WMG eye with B surrounds and eye adjustment of 0.5
    
55. due to W surrounding ring, yields a DT of 6.5. MET=6.0 based on a D+ 24h trend
    
56. and PT adjusted to 6.5. FT/CI=6.5/6.5. Available objective guidance at 1730 UTC
    
57. (all 1-minute mean) includes ADT 127 kn, AiDT 120 kn, DPRINT 117 kn, DMINT
    
58. 119kn (1748 UTC), MW Sounders 119 (1457 UTC), SATCON 123 kn (1600 UTC).
    
59. 
    
60. Maila lies in a generally favourable environment with moderate vertical wind
    
61. shear (CIMSS analysis at 1200 UTC 23 knots ENE), a moist environment and good
    
62. upper-level divergence. However the intensity forecast for Maila is difficult
    
63. with some guidance indicating an intense system persisting until land
    
64. interactions with Papua New Guinea, and other guidance suggesting weakening
    
65. before this. The slow motion may cause upwelling of cooler waters and the
    
66. system remaining over these cooler waters may induce some weakening. The short
    
67. term forecast is for the system to maintain a category 5 intensity over the
    
68. next 24 hours, however fluctuations may occur down to a category 4 if upwelling
    
69. does affect the system. From Thursday interactions with Papua New Guinea and
    
70. slightly higher shear will cause the system to start to weaken. The longer term
    
71. intensity as it approaches the Queensland coast may depend on the systems
    
72. interaction with PNG, as well as how quickly Maila moves west which leads to
    
73. some variations in guidance and there is potential for Maila to be influenced
    
74. by some vertical wind shear before reaching Queensland.
    
75. 
    
76. The steering pattern is changing and Maila is only moving slowly while this
    
77. occurs. A new mid-level ridge is building to the southwest and this is starting
    
78. to become the dominant steering influence, and Maila is now moving to the
    
79. northwest In the coming days the mid-level ridge is forecast to extend
    
80. eastwards, to the south and southeast of Maila, and by Thursday is expected to
    
81. steer Maila west southwest. This takes Maila past southeastern PNG, and they
    
82. could face a prolonged period of very hazardous winds.
    
83. 
    
84. After passing PNG, Maila is expected to continue moving generally west, towards
    
85. the Cape York Peninsula. However, there is considerable spread in the speed of
    
86. motion and impacts could occur as early as Friday night or be delayed until
    
87. early next week.
    
88. 
    
89. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
    
90. ==
    
91. The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 08/0130 UTC.

复制代码

ygsj24

WTPS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR 012   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z --- NEAR 9.5S 156.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.5S 156.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 9.3S 155.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 9.1S 154.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 9.2S 154.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 9.6S 153.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 10.8S 150.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 12.0S 148.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 13.0S 145.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 9.5S 155.9E.
07APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 743
NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071800Z IS 930 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P
(VAIANU) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 072100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR
   
4. 012//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 9.5S 156.0E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 125 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 743 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 38 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 30P WITH A WELL-DEFINED, CLEAR, AND SYMMETRIC EYE
    
19. APPROXIMATELY 24 NM IN DIAMETER EMBEDDED IN A SLIGHTLY ASYMMETRIC
    
20. UPPER LEVEL CANOPY WITH THE STRONGEST DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
    
21. WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 071749Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE
    
22. EYE IS SYMMETRICAL THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL COLUMN, AND THE CORE IS
    
23. VERTICALLY STACKED WITH NO TILT WITH HEIGHT. THE INITIAL POSITION
    
24. IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE AND AFOREMENTIONED
    
25. 071749Z SSMIS IMAGE. THE STORM IS ASSESSED TO HAVE RAPIDLY
    
26. INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, INTENSIFYING FROM 9O KTS AT
    
27. 061800Z TO NOW 125 KTS AT 071800Z. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
    
28. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED MY LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL
    
29. WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (29-30 KTS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND
    
30. MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT. ANY COLD WATER UPWELLING CAUSED BY THE
    
31. STORM'S QUASISTATIONARY TRACK APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT
    
32. ON THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125
    
33. KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AUTOMATED CIMSS
    
34. INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES LISTED
    
35. BELOW.
    
36. 
    
37. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
38. 
    
39. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
    
40. THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTERED OVER AUSTRALIA
    
41. 
    
42. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
43.    PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
    
44.    KNES: T6.5 - 127 KTS
    
45.    ABRF: T6.0 - 115 KTS
    
46.    CIMSS SATCON: 125 KTS AT 071600Z
    
47.    CIMSS ADT: 127 KTS AT 071830Z
    
48.    CIMSS AIDT: 122 KTS AT 071830Z
    
49.    CIMSS D-MINT: 119 KTS AT 071748Z
    
50.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 121 KTS AT 071830Z
    
51. 
    
52. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
53.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
54.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
55.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
    
56. 
    
57. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
58.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
59.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
60.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
61. 
    
62. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
63. 
    
64. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
65. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
66. 
    
67. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 30P (MAILA) IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK
    
68. WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE IT REMAINS IN
    
69. THE RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT OF THE NORTHEASTERN
    
70. PERIPHERY OF THE STR CENTERED OVER AUSTRALIA. AROUND TAU 48, THE
    
71. STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD A EASTWARD EXTENSION THAT WILL CAUSE 30P
    
72. TO INCREASE TRANSLATION SPEED AND ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
    
73. CAPE YORK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING
    
74. INTENSITY, MAILA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT A STABLE INTENSITY
    
75. THROUGH TAU 24 WHILE IT'S SUSTAINED BY THE SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
    
76. WHILE 30P REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY, COLD WATER UPWELLING IS A
    
77. POTENTIAL WEAKENING FACTOR, WITH A DEVELOPED COLD WAKE (SUB 26C)
    
78. DEPICTED IN THE HAFS-A MODELS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ASSESSED
    
79. POSITION. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK DEPICTS 30P TRANSITING NORTH
    
80. OF THE MODEL-DERIVED COLD POOL IN HAFS-A, INDICATING THE
    
81. POSSIBILITY THAT 30P WILL MISS ITS COLD WAKE ENTIRELY AS IT
    
82. MEANDERS NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. ONCE 30P TURNS SOUTHWESTWARD
    
83. AT TAU 24-36, IT WILL ENCOUNTER UPWARDS OF 35KTS OF MIDLEVEL SHEAR,
    
84. BATTERING THE STORM THROUGH TAU 72. THE MIDLEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED
    
85. TO LET UP SLIGHTLY BETWEEN TAU 72-120, BUT REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH
    
86. TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT REINTENSIFICATION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
    
87. PERIOD. MAILA'S CLOSE BRUSH WITH THE PAPAUN PENINSULA WILL BE
    
88. ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTOR TO WEAKENING, INDUCING TERRAIN INTERACTION
    
89. AS 30P SCRAPES IT WESTERN FLANK ALONG THE OWEN STANLEY RANGE.
    
90. 
    
91. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE
    
92. AGREEMENT OVERALL, WITH LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN HOW EACH MODEL
    
93. DEPICTS THE QUASISTATIONARY PERIOD INTO THE SOUTHWESTWARD
    
94. ACCELERATION, INDUCING A LARGE (575 NM) ALONG-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU
    
95. 120. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE THE THE
    
96. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE
    
97. INTENSITY GUIDANCE ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 30P HAS REACHED ITS
    
98. PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL THE END OF THE
    
99. FORECAST PERIOD. NOTABLY, THE MESOSCALE MODELS (HAFS-A AND HWRF)
    
100. DEPICT A MUCH MORE DRASTIC WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 24. THE JTWC
     
101. INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE, AS A
     
102. RESULT OF THE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH
     
103. THE COLD POOL AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR THE STORM
     
104. WILL ENCOUNTER AS IT TRANSITS SOUTHWESTWARD.
     
105. 
     
106. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
107.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
108.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
     
109.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
     
110.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
     
111. NNNN

复制代码