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本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-1-31 16:14 编辑
WTIO30 FMEE 310658
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/9/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (FYTIA)
2.A POSITION 2026/01/31 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 45.6 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/31 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 140
24H: 2026/02/01 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 75
36H: 2026/02/01 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 55 NW: 45
48H: 2026/02/02 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
60H: 2026/02/02 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 195 SW: 215 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
72H: 2026/02/03 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/04 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 95
120H: 2026/02/05 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 165 SW: 95 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FYTIA'S EYE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED AFTER 00UTC UNTIL IT MADE LANDFALL
BETWEEN 0130Z AND 0200Z ON THE NORTHWEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. DVORAK
ANALYSIS TEMPORARILY INCREASED, YIELDING A DT BETWEEN 5.5 AND 6.0.
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT INERTIA AND THE FACT THAT THE EYE WAS NOT ALWAYS
CLEARLY DEFINED, WE CAN ESTIMATE THAT THE SYSTEM'S MAXIMUM INTENSITY
WAS REACHED AT LANDFALL AND WAS NEAR 85 KT. THIS INTENSITY WAS
ASSIGNED TO THE 00UTC ANALYSIS POINT IN THE BEST-TRACK. FYTIA'S EYE
MADE LANDFALL NEAR CAPE AMPARAFAKA, CLOSE TO SMALL TOWNS SUCH AS
MAROALIKA AND JUST WEST OF SOALALA (MAHAJANGA PROVINCE, BOENY
REGION), THE SAME LANDFALL LOCATION AS CYCLONE BELNA IN DECEMBER
2019. FYTIA IS LIKELY THE MOST POWERFUL CYCLONE TO HIT MAHAJANGA
PROVINCE SINCE ANDRY IN DECEMBER 1983, AND IS SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE
THAN BELNA.
THE SYSTEM'S EYE STRUCTURE REMAINED WELL DEFINED UP TO 06UTC, DESPITE
CLOUD TOPS GRADUALLY WARMING UP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. THE
INTENSITY IS THEREFORE ESTIMATED AT 65 KT AT 06UTC, WITH
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLY LINGERING LOCALLY IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, STEERED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
A TROUGH LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH. IT SHOULD THEREFORE PASS WELL OFF TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF REUNION ISLAND AROUND MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS REGARDING THE SYSTEM'S FORWARD SPEED : SOME
SCENARIOS SUGGEST A SLOWDOWN LINKED TO A WEAKENING SYSTEM STEERED BY
WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOWS, WHILE OTHER SCENARIOS FAVOR A MORE POWERFUL
SYSTEM MOVING FASTER IN THE MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EDGE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH, THUS EXITING MORE RAPIDLY TOWARDS SUBTROPICAL
LATITUDES. THE LATTER SCENARIO IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED BY THE RSMC
FORECAST, WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
(AROME, HAFS-A) AND IA ENSEMBLES.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT OVER LAND THIS SATURDAY
AND FOLLOWING NIGHT WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. WHEN IT
EMERGES ON SUNDAY MORNING EAST OF MADAGASCAR OVER SURFACE WATERS OF
MORE THAN 28C, STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME NEAR THE
CENTER AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY, GRADUALLY
RETURNING TO THE STAGE OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER,
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE EDGE OF THE TROUCH
SHOULD MORE OR LESS LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION. MODEL
SPREAD BECOMES VERY HIGH FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, WITH SOME SUGGESTING
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL FILL IN AS A WEAK REMNANT LOW IN CONNECTION WITH
MASSIVE DRY AIR INTRUSIONS, WHILE OTHERS MAINTAIN A STRONGER
INTENSITY THANKS TO A FASTER MOVEMENT IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE
WIND SHEAR. THE RSMC FORECAST IS CLOSER TO SCENARIOS THAT MAINTAIN
SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY. STARTING ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, AS IT MOVES
OVER COOLER WATERS AND UNDER THE EFFECT OF INCREASING SHEAR, THE
SYSTEM COULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL FEATURES AND BECOME
POST-TROPICAL.
EXPECTED IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
MADAGASCAR (MAHAJANGA PROVINCE) :
- HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY FADE AWAY IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. GALE-FORCE WINDS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
NEAR THE SYSTEM. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
- HEAVY RAIN ONGOING : 200-300 MM IN 24 HOURS NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.
FURTHER INLAND, 100-200 MM IN 24 HOURS ALONG THE SYSTEM'S TRACK AND
ON MOUNTAINOUS AREAS ON SATURDAY.
- VERY ROUCH TO HIGH SEAS UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- STORM SURGE MAY STILL REACH 50CM TO 1M FOR A FEW HOURS, BEFORE
RAPIDLY WEAKENING.
MADAGASCAR (ANTANANARIVO, TOAMASINA AND FIANARANTSOA PROVINCES) :
- HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE SYSTEM'S TRACK AND ON NEARBY MOUNTAINS.
CUMULATIVE PRECIPITATION OF 100 MM IN 24 HOURS ON SATURDAY AND THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT. BEFORE AND DURING THE SYSTEM'S MOVING BACK TO SEA,
THE RESUMPTION OF DEEP CONVECTION AND WIND CONVERGENCE ON THE
CENTRAL-EAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
SOUTH OF THE PROVINCE OF TOAMASINA AND THE FAR NORTH OF THE PROVINCE
OF FIANARANTSOA, WITH RAINFALL UP TO 200-300 MM IN 12 HOURS DURING
THE NIGHT FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY.
- CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING ON SUNDAY FROM NOON ONWARDS. |
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楼主: yhh
发表于 2026-1-31 12:23
发表于 2026-1-31 12:31
