TCFA - 瓦努阿图附近热带扰动07F(17U/90P) - 14.0S 168.8E

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析仍然无法找到中心

TPPS11 PGTW 260607
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (NW OF FIJI)
B. 26/0530Z
C. XX.XX
D. XXX.XX
E. N/A/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT BE
FOUND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析仍然无法找到中心

TPPS11 PGTW 260902
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (NW OF FIJI)
B. 26/0830Z
C. XX.XX
D. XXX.XX
E. N/A/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT BE
FOUND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 261200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/261200Z-270600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.5S 164.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 162.1W, APPROXIMATELY 503 NM
EAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH
PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). A DEFINED CENTER HAS YET TO FORM AS
THE WIND FIELD REMAINS HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WITH STRONGER WINDS (35-40
KTS) ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FLANK OF THE SPCZ WHILE MUCH
WEAKER WINDS (5-10 KTS) MAKE UP THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FLANK.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 94P TRACKING RAPIDLY
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE MAINTAINING AN ASYMMETRIC WIND
FIELD. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF 94P COMPARED TO THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS, LIKELY
PICKING UP ON THE PERIPHERAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE RATHER THAN THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFINED CIRCULATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 166.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 167.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 233 NM NORTH OF PORT VILA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10 TO 15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON 90P TRACKING GENERALLY EASTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO
MEDIUM.//
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红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析仍然无法找到中心

TPPS11 PGTW 261150
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (NW OF FIJI)
B. 26/1130Z
C. XX.XX
D. XXX.XX
E. N/A/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT BE
FOUND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析T1.0

TPPS11 PGTW 261506
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (NE OF VANUATU)
B. 26/1430Z
C. 13.39S
D. 168.83E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2026-1-26 23:22
JTWC 15Z分析T1.0

JTWC稍早前修改15Z分析

TPPS11 PGTW 261606 COR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (NE OF VANUATU)
B. 26/1431Z
C. 13.39S
D. 168.83E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
CORRECTED FIX CODE.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析维持T1.0

TPPS11 PGTW 261807
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (NE OF VANUATU)
B. 26/1730Z
C. 13.61S
D. 168.51E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析维持T1.0

TPPS11 PGTW 262051
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (NE OF VANUATU)
B. 26/2030Z
C. 14.03S
D. 168.31E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .3 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

Ragasa

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 262356 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD07F CENTER 1002HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.9S
167.9E AT 270000UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI 9 VIS IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD07F MOVING EAST AT
05 KNOTS.

SMALL BLOB OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION EAST OF THE SUPPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATING CENTER. ORGANISATION SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN THE LAST 24
HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A
GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST
AROUND IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS VERY LOW.

*********************************************************************
******
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
*********************************************************************

pocketbox

WTPS21 PGTW 270230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9S 168.6E TO 17.9S 172.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 270000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0S 168.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.0S 168.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 168.8E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL VISUAL IMAGERY (MSI)
AS WELL AS A 262145Z METOP-C MHS 89V MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT INVEST 90P
COALESCING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVERSHOOTING
TOPS ARE OBSERVED IN THE CURVED FORMATIVE BANDING ON THE NORTHEAST
PERIMETER, AND CONVECTION IS DEEPENING NEAR THE LLCC. A 262149Z ASCAT
PASS DEPICTS A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION WITH 15-20KT WINDS
PRIMARILY RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE
SYSTEM LIES UNDER A BELT OF LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (5-10KTS) WITH DECENT
OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
UNANIMOUS ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS BENEFITTING FROM GRADIENT LEVEL VORTICITY
SUPPLIED BY EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A MADDEN JULIAN
OSCILLATION PULSE THAT IS MOVING TOWARDS THE DATELINE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280230Z.
//
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