牙买加东南四级飓风“梅利莎”(13L.Melissa) - 快速加强，强势威胁牙买加 - NHC:120KT

pocketbox

WTNT43 KNHC 241459
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance that has been flying through
Melissa this morning found the center significantly further to
the east-southeast than what was observed last night. How much of
this position is related to a real motion, or a center reformation
is unclear at this time. The storm remains about the same on
satellite imagery this morning, with a large burst of
deep convection, primarily along its southeastern flank, with
evidence of northwesterly shear still undercutting the outflow. A
WSFM microwave pass shows very deep hot towers, but not with that
much structure beyond that. In addition, there hasn't been a
significant change to Melissa's intensity, with peak 850 mb flight
level winds of 49 kt, and these winds support maintaining 40 kt
intensity this advisory.

As has been stated for the last few days, the lack of persistent
steering currents, due to competing mid-level ridges to the
southeast and northwest of Melissa, is responsible for the storm's
very slow motion. This is likely to continue for the next day or so,
and much of the system's motion could be just as influenced by
center reformations during this time period. After 24 hours, the
mid-level ridge located to the northwest is expected to strengthen
to the north of Melissa, and the guidance is coming into better
agreement on a very slow westward motion through 72 hours. Beyond
that time frame, a strengthening mid-latitude trough expected to
move into the Southeastern U.S., should provide an avenue for
Melissa to escape the Caribbean Sea to the northeast by the end of
the forecast period. The track guidance overall has shifted south
over the first few days, but there is still substantial spread in
solutions at the end of the forecast period, related to when and
how fast Melissa turns to the northeast. The latest NHC track
forecast is a little south of the prior one early on, but is
shifted a little eastward in 4-5 days, roughly a blend of the latest
HCCA and GDMI model aid solutions. On the forecast track, Melissa
could potentially be near western Jamaica by day 4 and near or
over southeastern Cuba by day 5, though timing still remains more
uncertain than usual.

The GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS shear guidance indicates the
deep-layer shear is lower than yesterday, between 14-17 kt, but
there still appears to be mid-level shear undercutting the outflow
layer. Until Melissa also become better aligned vertically, any
intensification is likely to be slow to occur over the next 12 h or
so. After that, once Melissa's structure improves, environmental
conditions still appear favorable for a period of rapid
intensification (RI). Every single Google DeepMind member shows the
system become a Category 4 hurricane or higher, and the uncertainty
is more related on the timing of when RI occurs. After 96 hours,
Melissa could weaken some due to the combined effects of land
interaction, and an increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear by
the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is
on the higher end of the model solutions, but more or less in line
with the latest GDMI guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Jamaica:  Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged
multi-day period of potentially damaging winds, heavy rainfall
resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides, and storm surge continues to increase for Jamaica.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion, since strong winds and flooding rains could begin in
Jamaica on Saturday or Sunday.

2. Haiti:  Heavy rainfall will result in catastrophic flash flooding
and landslides across southwestern Haiti into early next week.
Extensive damage to roads and buildings is expected, potentially
isolating communities for an extended period of time. This is a
life-threatening situation and immediate preparations to protect
life and property should be taken.  Strong winds could also
potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon peninsula of
Haiti.

3. Remainder of Hispaniola and Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall could
also produce significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
numerous landslides in southern Dominican Republic. Interests in
Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa since the risk of heavy
rainfall, damaging winds, and storm surge appears to be increasing.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 15.7N  74.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  25/0000Z 15.9N  74.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  25/1200Z 16.3N  74.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  26/0000Z 16.5N  75.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  26/1200Z 16.6N  76.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
60H  27/0000Z 16.6N  76.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
72H  27/1200Z 16.6N  77.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
96H  28/1200Z 17.5N  78.3W  130 KT 150 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 20.4N  76.7W  105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Papin

pocketbox

WTNT63 KNHC 241630
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1230 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THAT MELISSA IS STRENGTHENING...

Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data indicates that
Melissa is strengthening, and maximum sustained winds are now
estimated to be 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum  
pressure from aircraft dropsonde data has dropped to 999 mb   
(29.50 inches).

SUMMARY OF 1230 PM EDT...1630 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 74.5W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin

ygsj24

000
WTNT33 KNHC 241738
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...MELISSA REORGANIZING AND POISED TO INTENSIFY SUBSTANTIALLY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 74.4W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and eastern
Cuba, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Melissa.  A
hurricane warning may be required for Jamaica later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data near latitude 15.6
North, longitude 74.4 West. Melissa is drifting toward the
east-southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn to the northeast and
north at a continued slow motion is expected to begin this afternoon
and tonight. A westward turn is forecast on Saturday and this
general motion is expected to continue through Monday. A turn to the
north and northeast is forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or
just south of Jamaica early next week and could be near eastern Cuba
by the middle of next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast today, followed by rapid
intensification this weekend. Melissa is forecast to become a
hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is
997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti later this weekend and Jamaica beginning late this weekend or
early next week. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin
in Haiti tonight or Saturday and in Jamaica later this weekend.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 10 to 20 inches of rain to
portions of southwestern Haiti and eastern Jamaica through Monday,
with locally higher amounts possible. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12
inches are expected across the rest of southern Haiti and the
southern Dominican Republic. Additional heavy rainfall is likely
beyond Monday. However, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward
speed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are expected
in the southern Dominican Republic and eastern Jamaica, with
catastrophic flash flooding and landslides anticipated in southern
Haiti.

Across portions of northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and
western Jamaica, 3 to 5 inches of rain is expected through Monday.
Flash and urban flooding will be possible. Flooding impacts will
likely increase across western Jamaica next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is likely along the coast of
Jamaica by Saturday in areas of onshore winds as tropical storm
conditions begin to reach the area.  However, there is a potential
risk of a more significant storm surge, especially along the south
coast of Jamaica, early next week.  Due to Melissa's slow motion and
large forecast uncertainty, it is still too soon to know exactly how
high the storm surge could reach.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

ygsj24

000
WTNT43 KNHC 242054
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
500 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

After the previous advisory, the last couple of aircraft fixes from
the C-130 indicated that Melissa likely completed a center
relocation as a very large burst of deep convection with cloud tops
below -90C rotated up-shear of the center. This evolution was also
nicely captured on the GOES-19 mesoscale sector, where GLM lightning
flashes, which had been parked down-shear earlier in the morning,
started to rotate cyclonically along Melissa's eastern flank,
indicating convection was finally starting to wrap around the
low-level vortex. A GMI microwave pass at 1527 UTC also hinted at a
nascent inner core feature on the 37 GHz channel as the convective
burst wrapped around the center. Before the Air Force Hurricane
Hunters left Melissa, they measured a peak flight level wind of 59
kt, and a pressure down to 997 mb, supporting the 50 kt intensity
for the intermediate advisory. However, given the improvement of
Melissa's structure since that time, the initial intensity is being
raised to 55 kt for this advisory, in best agreement with the
T3.5/55-kt Dvorak intensity estimate provided by TAFB. Another Air
Force Reserve and a NOAA-P3 reconnaissance mission will be in the
storm tonight to provide more data on Melissa's intensity and
structure.

Now that the center is becoming better aligned with its mid-level
vortex, it also appears the tropical storm has finally turned more
northward, with an estimated motion of 360/2 kt. The synoptic track
reasoning remains similar to this morning, with a slow motion
expected to continue in the short-term due light steering currents,
due to competing mid-level ridges to the southeast and northwest of
Melissa. After 24 hours, the mid-level ridge located to the
northwest is expected to strengthen to the north of Melissa, and the
guidance is coming into better agreement on a very slow westward
motion through 72 hours. Beyond that time frame, a strengthening
mid-latitude trough expected to move into the Southeastern U.S.,
providing a path for Melissa to turn northeastward out of the
Caribbean Sea into the southwestern Atlantic by the end of the
forecast period. The track guidance this cycle has shifted a bit
eastward beyond day 3, and is also notably faster than before.
However, it should be stressed that there remains a substantial
amount of along track spread. On the forecast track, Melissa could
potentially be near Jamaica by day 4 and move across Cuba before the
end of the forecast period, though the timing of this track remains
more uncertain than usual.

Compared to yesterday, the UW-CIMSS shear estimates have dropped
from 25 kt a day ago to 15 kt currently with mid-level shear also
decreasing. This reduction in shear, in combination with the
dramatically improved structure of Melissa this afternoon, suggests
that the system is ready to take advantage of other favorable
environmental conditions (30-31 C sea-surface temperatures, a
moistening deep-layer environment). The intensity guidance is
sharply higher this afternoon in the short-term, and it appears that
Melissa could begin a period of rapid intensification (RI) at any
time. The NHC intensity forecast responds to this guidance change by
explicitly show RI earlier and continuing over the weekend. The
forecast now shows a 135 kt peak in 60 h, and there is a distinct
possibility that Melissa could become a Category 5 hurricane during
this time period. In fact, the latest 12z Google DeepMind ensemble
distribution shows the majority of its members reaching this lofty
intensity. After that time period, inner-core structural changes are
likely to cause fluctuations in intensity, and land interaction in
both Jamaica and Cuba will likely lead to some weakening by the end
of the forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is on the high side of
the guidance envelope, and closest too the Google DeepMind ensemble
mean (GDMI).

Key Messages:

1. Jamaica:  Due to Melissa’s slow motion, a prolonged multi-day
period of damaging winds and heavy rainfall resulting in potentially
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides is likely to
begin late Saturday or Sunday.  There is an increasing risk of
life-threatening storm surge when the center of Melissa nears
Jamaica early next week. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

2. Haiti:  Heavy rainfall will result in catastrophic flash flooding
and landslides across southwestern Haiti into early next week.
Extensive damage to roads and buildings is expected, potentially
isolating communities for an extended period of time. Immediate
preparations to protect life and property should be taken. Strong
winds could also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon
peninsula of Haiti.

3. Dominican Republic:  Heavy rainfall could produce potentially
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern
portions of the Dominican Republic.

4. Eastern Cuba and Bahamas:  Interests in Cuba and the Bahamas
should monitor the progress of Melissa since there is an increasing
risk of a significant storm storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy
rainfall by the middle of next week. The risk of life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides in eastern Cuba are increasing.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 16.0N  74.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  25/0600Z 16.2N  74.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  25/1800Z 16.4N  74.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
36H  26/0600Z 16.5N  75.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
48H  26/1800Z 16.5N  76.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
60H  27/0600Z 16.5N  76.6W  135 KT 155 MPH
72H  27/1800Z 16.8N  77.4W  135 KT 155 MPH
96H  28/1800Z 17.9N  77.4W  120 KT 140 MPH...INLAND IN JAMAICA
120H  29/1800Z 21.5N  74.8W   95 KT 110 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Papin

ygsj24

000
WTNT33 KNHC 242347
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT LITTLE
CHANGE IN MELISSA'S STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 74.6W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and eastern
Cuba, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Melissa.  A
hurricane warning may be required for Jamaica later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 74.6 West. A turn to
the west is forecast on Saturday and this general motion is
expected to continue through Monday. A turn to the north and
northeast is forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or over
Jamaica early next week and could be near or over eastern Cuba by
the middle of next week.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Rapid intensification is forecast over the
next several days, and Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane
tomorrow and a major hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti later this weekend and Jamaica beginning late this weekend or
early next week. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in
Haiti tonight or Saturday and in Jamaica late Saturday into Sunday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 25
inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through
Tuesday, with local maxima of 35 inches possible across the Tiburon
Peninsula of Haiti.  Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond
Tuesday. The uncertainty at that time range precludes exact storm
totals.  Potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are
possible across portions of Jamaica and the southern Dominican
Republic, while catastrophic flash flooding is anticipated in
southern Haiti.

For southeast Cuba, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local
amounts to 12 inches, are possible into Tuesday.  Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond Tuesday. The uncertainty at that time
range precludes exact storm totals.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is likely along the coast of
Jamaica by Saturday in areas of onshore winds as tropical storm
conditions begin to reach the area.

However, there is a risk of a more life-threatening storm surge,
especially along the south coast of Jamaica, early next week.  Peak
storm surge heights could reach 5 to 10 feet above ground level,
near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall.
This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

pocketbox

WTNT43 KNHC 250253
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1100 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Melissa is still trying to get organized. While the
central pressure has fallen to 993 mb, the tail Doppler radar data
from the NOAA aircraft shows that the 500-mb center is displaced
about 20-25 n mi east-southeast of the surface center. The tilt is
also present at the aircraft flight levels, with dropsondes
released at the flight-level center missing the surface center and
reporting 25-35 kt surface winds. In addition, the aircraft radar
data and land-based radar data from Jamaica show that the cyclone
has not yet been able to develop a persistent eyewall. Based mainly
on the central pressure and satellite intensity estimates the
initial intensity is held at 55 kt.

Although the initial motion is a bit uncertain, Melissa now appears
to be moving slowly northwest with the initial motion 325/3 kt. A
turn toward the west or west-northwest and a continued slow forward
speed are expected in 12-24 h as low- to mid-level ridging builds
to the north of the cyclone. This motion should continue through
about 72 h. After that time, a deep-layer mid-latitude trough
moving into the southeastern United States and the southwestern
Atlantic will break the ridge to the north, with Melissa expected
to turn northward and eventually northeastward as it recurves into
the westerlies.  There remains a substantial spread in the guidance
with respect to where the center of Melissa may pass in relation to
Jamaica, with solutions ranging from the GFS passing near the
eastern end of the island to the Canadian passing west of the
island. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and
shows the center passing over Jamaica just after 72 h. However, any
motion north of the current forecast track could bring the center
near or over Jamaica at almost any time between 24-72 h. After
passing Jamaica, Melissa is likely to move near or over eastern
Cuba, but which portion of eastern Cuba may be most affected
remains uncertain at this time.

While the westerly shear that has been affecting Melissa will not
completely stop during the next 2-3 days, it is forecast to
decrease to about 10-15 kt in 24 h or less. This should allow rapid
development as the storm is located in a moist environment over
very warm sea surface temperatures. The one short-term restraining
factor is that Melissa's structure is not quite good enough yet to
allow rapid intensification (RI), and thus it could be another
6-12 h before RI begins in earnest. The latest round of intensity
guidance shows somewhat lower peak intensities than the previous
advisory, mainly due to the models moving Melissa near or over
Jamaica. However, the current forecast track keeps the center
offshore for 72 h or more, and based on this the new intensity
forecast is at the high end of the guidance with a peak intensity
of 135 kt. Despite the weaker guidance, there is still a
possibility that Melissa could become a category 5 hurricane during
the forecast period. After passing near or over Jamaica, the cyclone
is forecast to weaken due to possible interaction with Cuba and
increasing southwesterly shear as Melissa encounters the
mid-latitude westerlies.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica:  Melissa’s slow movement will bring a multi-day period
of damaging winds and heavy rainfall beginning late Saturday or
Sunday, likely causing catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides.  There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm
surge early next week. All preparations should be complete by late
Saturday.

2. Haiti:  Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected
across southwestern Haiti into early next week, likely causing
extensive infrastructural damage and potentially prolonged isolation
of communities. Immediate preparations to protect life and property
are urged. Strong winds could also potentially last for a day or
more over the Tiburon peninsula.

3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce potentially
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern
regions.

4. Eastern Cuba, Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos:  Monitor Melissa
closely.  There is an increasing risk of a significant storm storm
surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the middle of next
week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash flooding
and landslides is increasing.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 16.1N  74.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  25/1200Z 16.5N  75.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  26/0000Z 16.7N  75.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
36H  26/1200Z 16.8N  76.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
48H  27/0000Z 16.8N  76.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
60H  27/1200Z 16.9N  77.5W  135 KT 155 MPH
72H  28/0000Z 17.4N  77.6W  135 KT 155 MPH
96H  29/0000Z 19.3N  76.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 23.2N  73.7W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：张怡驰、刘涛  签发：董林  2025 年 10 月 25 日 10 时
“梅利莎”向偏北方向移动

时        间:     25日08时（北京时）

海        域:    北大西洋

命        名:    “梅利莎”， MELISSA

中心位置:    北纬16.2度，西经74.7度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    10级，28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压:    995百帕

参考位置:   距离海地太子港西南方向约370公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“梅利莎”由8级加强到10级

预报结论:   “梅利莎”将以每小时5公里左右的速度向偏北方向移动，强度逐渐增强



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年10月25日08时00分）

“晨格”已减弱为热带低压

“晨格”已于昨天（24日）夜间（北京时）在南印度洋减弱为热带低压，中央气象台停止对其监视。

    （这是关于“晨格”的最后一期监测公报）

pocketbox

WTNT33 KNHC 250541
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA SUGGEST MELISSA IS ALMOST A
HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 74.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and eastern
Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor
the progress of Melissa. Watches could be required for portions of
eastern Cuba later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 74.9 West. Melissa is
moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn to the west
is forecast today, and this general motion is expected to continue
through Monday. A turn to the north and northeast is forecast on
Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa
is expected to move near or over Jamaica during the weekend and
early next week, and it could be near or over eastern Cuba by the
middle of next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Rapid intensification is expected to begin soon.
Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane today and a major
hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter dropsonde data is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in
Jamaica beginning Sunday, with tropical storm conditions beginning
later today.  Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area in Haiti later this weekend, with tropical storm conditions
expected to begin today.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 25
inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through
Tuesday, with local maxima of 35 inches possible across the Tiburon
Peninsula of Haiti.  Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond
Tuesday; uncertainty at that time range precludes exact storm
totals.  Potential catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are
possible across portions of Jamaica and the southern Dominican
Republic, while catastrophic flash flooding is anticipated in
southern Haiti.

For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local
amounts to 12 inches, are possible into Tuesday.  Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond Tuesday; uncertainty at that time range
precludes exact storm totals.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is likely along the coast of
Jamaica starting today in areas of onshore winds as tropical storm
conditions begin to reach the area.

However, there is a risk of a more life-threatening storm surge,
especially along the south coast of Jamaica, later in the
weekend or early next week.  Peak storm surge heights could reach 5
to 10 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the
center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Hagen

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開始有固定核心了

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406
WTNT43 KNHC 250843
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
500 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

During the last center fix of the Air Force Reserve mission into
Melissa several hours ago, a dropsonde measured a surface pressure
of 989 mb with winds of 27 kt, suggesting that the central pressure
has fallen to about 986 mb.  The plane did not measure stronger
winds, but it did not fly through the area due east of the center,
which is where a nearly coincident ASCAT pass suggested the
strongest winds would be located.  Some westerly shear is still
evident, but the center is now embedded far enough under the
Central Dense Overcast to yield Dvorak estimates of T4.0/65 kt from
TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB.  The current intensity is estimated to
be 60 kt based on all these data.  It's also worth noting that an
eye feature has occasionally been apparent in radar images from
Jamaica.

Melissa is currently moving slowly northwestward (310/3 kt).  
Steering currents will remain weak for the next 3 days, and Melissa
is forecast to drift westward through Sunday night to the south of
Jamaica.  A sharp but still very slow turn toward the north is
expected Monday and Monday night.  Unfortunately, a large majority
of the latest reliable track models show Melissa making landfall on
Jamaica in about 72 hours.  What's most concerning here is that the
island is likely to experience a couple of days of heavy rainfall
and tropical-storm-force winds before the core--and strongest
winds--even reach the coast.  An increase in forward motion is
expected by days 4 and 5, with Melissa accelerating northeastward
across eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands.  Although there are some speed differences among
the models, for the most part the cross-track spread is generally
small.

Although some westerly shear is likely to continue for the next few
days, high oceanic heat content and stronger upper-level
divergence should be able to support significant strengthening.  
The dynamical model-based Rapid Intensification (RI) indices
(DTOPS) in particular are quite aggressive, showing a very high
probability of a 55-kt increase in intensity over the next 48
hours.  In addition, 41 of the 50 Google DeepMind ensemble members
show Melissa at category 4 or 5 strength by Monday afternoon (60
hours), which is the same time that the NHC forecast continues to
show a peak intensity of 135 kt.  Although some slight weakening is
possible after 60 hours, possibly due to the circulation
interacting with land and/or an eyewall replacement, Melissa still
has a significant possibility of making landfall on Jamaica as a
major hurricane.  Melissa could maintain major hurricane strength
when it reaches eastern Cuba, but increased shear should lead to
weakening below major hurricane strength by day 5.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica:  Melissa’s slow movement will bring a multi-day period
of damaging winds and heavy rainfall beginning tonight, likely
causing catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides.  There
is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge early next
week. All preparations should be completed today.

2. Haiti:  Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected
across southwestern Haiti into early next week, likely causing
extensive infrastructural damage and potentially prolonged isolation
of communities. Immediate preparations to protect life and property
are urged. Strong winds could also potentially last for a day or
more over the Tiburon peninsula.

3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce potentially
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern
regions.

4. Eastern Cuba, Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos:  Monitor Melissa
closely.  There is an increasing risk of a significant storm surge,
damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the middle of next week. In
eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides is increasing.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 16.3N  75.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  25/1800Z 16.5N  75.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  26/0600Z 16.7N  75.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
36H  26/1800Z 16.8N  76.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
48H  27/0600Z 16.9N  77.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
60H  27/1800Z 17.2N  77.4W  135 KT 155 MPH
72H  28/0600Z 17.8N  77.2W  125 KT 145 MPH...S COAST OF JAMAICA
96H  29/0600Z 20.4N  75.3W  105 KT 120 MPH...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
120H  30/0600Z 24.8N  71.6W   90 KT 105 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Berg