百慕大西南二级飓风“伊梅尔达”(09L.Imelda) - 与Humberto共舞，影响巴哈马群岛 - NHC:85KT

ygsj24

000
WTNT34 KNHC 020543
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092025
200 AM AST Thu Oct 02 2025

...IMELDA'S CORE NOW EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA WITH CONDITIONS ON
THE ISLAND EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 63.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Imelda was located
near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 63.5 West. Imelda is moving
toward the east-northeast near 30 mph (48 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A northeastward
motion is then forecast on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast
track, the core of Imelda will move away from Bermuda during the
next several hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Imelda is expected to become an extratropical low later
today, with gradual weakening forecast thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km). During the past few hours, an elevated observing
site at the National Museum of Bermuda reported sustained winds of
78 mph (125 km/h) and a wind gust of 99 mph (159 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).
Several stations on Bermuda reported minimum pressures of 975-977
mb (28.79-28.85 inches) as the center of Imelda passed just south
of the island.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Imelda can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are ongoing over Bermuda and expected to
continue for a few more hours.

RAINFALL: Across Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) of rainfall
is expected through today, which could lead to flash flooding.

STORM SURGE: In Bermuda, a dangerous storm surge is expected to
produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. The surge will
be accompanied by large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Imelda are affecting the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and much of the U.S. East Coast. Swells from Imelda will spread
toward the Greater Antilles and northern Leeward Islands on Friday
and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：钟晖子、张增海  签发：张玲  2025 年 10 月 02 日 18 时
“伊梅尔达”向东偏北方向移动

时        间:   2日14时

海        域:    北大西洋

命        名:    “伊梅尔达”，IMELDA

中心位置:    西经63.3度，北纬32.5度

强度等级:    一级飓风

最大风力:    13级，41米/秒，相当于我国的台风级

中心气压:    973百帕

参考位置:    距离北大西洋百慕大群岛东偏北方向约140公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“伊美尔达”强度由13级增强为14级，又降为13级

预报结论:   “伊梅尔达”将以每小时48公里左右的速度向东偏北方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。



图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年10月2日14时00分）

ygsj24

000
WTNT44 KNHC 020850
TCDAT4

Hurricane Imelda Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092025
500 AM AST Thu Oct 02 2025

The center of Imelda passed just south of Bermuda a few hours ago,
with sustained hurricane force winds reported at one of the
elevated stations there. Since then, the cyclone has continued to
produce a central convective feature, and radar data from Bermuda
shows fragments of spiral bands to the north of the center.
Overall, it appears that Imelda is continuing through extratropical
transition, but the process is not finished yet. Satellite
intensity estimates have decreased, and based on these the initial
intensity is lowered to a possibly generous 75 kt.

The initial motion remains quickly east-northeastward or 075/26 kt.
This general motion is likely to continue for the next 12-24 h.
After that, the cyclone should phase with a digging mid-latitude
trough that is currently north of the system, with this trough
eventually becoming a deep-layer cut-off low over Imelda's
low-level center. This evolution should cause the surface center to
move generally northeastward from 24-72 h with a decrease in
forward speed. An east-northeastward motion is expected by the end
of the forecast period as the cyclone gets more embedded in the
mid-latitude flow.  The new forecast track is similar to the
previous track through 72 h, and then is slower than and south of
the previous track at 96 and 120 h.

Current trends and global model guidance suggest that Imelda should
complete extratropical transition later today. Phasing with the
above-mentioned mid-latitude trough should help the system maintain
its intensity for the next 3-4 days, and the intensity forecast has
been nudged upward a bit to match a blend of the global model wind
forecasts.  After 96 h, the global models forecast the system to
weaken quickly as the surface low separates from the upper-level
center, and this is also reflected in the new intensity forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Imelda's core has passed Bermuda, and conditions on the island
are improving. However, tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue for a few more hours.

2. The threat of heavy rainfall on Bermuda has diminished.

3. Swells and high surf from Imelda are expected to produce
dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along much of the East
Coast of the United States and the western Atlantic during the next
several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 32.8N  61.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  02/1800Z 33.5N  57.7W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H  03/0600Z 35.0N  52.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H  03/1800Z 37.2N  50.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  04/0600Z 39.8N  48.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H  04/1800Z 42.8N  45.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  05/0600Z 45.8N  41.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  06/0600Z 49.2N  32.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  07/0600Z 50.8N  25.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

ygsj24

000
WTNT34 KNHC 021139
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092025
800 AM AST Thu Oct 02 2025

...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER BERMUDA AS IMELDA MOVES QUICKLY AWAY
FROM THE ISLAND...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 60.9W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the
next few hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Imelda was located
near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 60.9 West. Imelda is moving
toward the east-northeast near 30 mph (48 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A northeastward
motion is then forecast on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast
track, Imelda will continue moving farther away from Bermuda this
morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Imelda is expected to become an extratropical low
later today, with gradual weakening forecast for the next several
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km). The L.F. Wade International Airport on Bermuda
recently reported a gust of 44 mph (71 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Imelda can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
on Bermuda for the next few hours.

RAINFALL: Lingering showers across Bermuda could produce up to an
inch (25 mm) of additional rainfall through today.

SURF: Swells generated by Imelda are affecting the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and much of the U.S. East Coast. Swells from Imelda will spread
toward the Greater Antilles and northern Leeward Islands on Friday
and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

pocketbox

WTNT44 KNHC 021448
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092025
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 02 2025

Imelda is no longer a tropical cyclone. Visible satellite images and
global model fields indicate that a front extends into the center of
the cyclone from the east-northeast, while another frontal feature
has developed to the south of the cyclone. This is consistent with
overnight microwave data that showed Imelda taking the appearance of
an occluded cyclone, as well as recent satellite trends that show
the remaining convection is mainly focused along these fronts.
Therefore, Imelda is classified as a 65-kt extratropical cyclone
this morning, and this will be the final NHC advisory on the system.

Post-tropical Imelda is racing toward the east-northeast (075/25
kt) away from Bermuda. The cyclone is expected to turn northeastward
on Friday ahead of an amplifying upper-level trough over the
northern Atlantic, then turn back toward the east-northeast by
Sunday within the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance is in
much better agreement than yesterday, and the NHC forecast lies near
the center of the envelope between the HCCA and TVCA aids.

Baroclinic forcing from the upper trough will likely cause the
cyclone to remain a large, storm-force low through the weekend. Even
though the peak winds are forecast to gradually diminish, a large
area of 34- and 50-kt winds will create hazardous marine conditions
and large swell that will continue to affect an expansive portion of
the western and central Atlantic.

Additional information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gusty winds over Bermuda will gradually subside today.

2. Swells and high surf from Imelda are expected to produce
dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along much of the East
Coast of the United States and the western Atlantic during the next
several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 33.2N  59.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H  03/0000Z 34.3N  55.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H  03/1200Z 36.3N  51.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H  04/0000Z 38.9N  49.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  04/1200Z 41.7N  47.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H  05/0000Z 44.6N  44.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  05/1200Z 47.1N  40.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  06/1200Z 50.0N  30.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

ygsj24

2025 - 173 - ALB4 - AL09 - IMELDA
持续时长：240 小时
最大风速：85 节
最低气压：966 百帕
ACE：7.0125

时刻（UTC）	所在纬度	所在经度	风速（节）	气压（百帕）	强度等级
2025/09/22 12:00	16.3N	55.2W	25	1011	DB
2025/09/22 18:00	16.9N	57.0W	25	1011	DB
2025/09/23 00:00	17.1N	59.2W	25	1011	DB
2025/09/23 06:00	17.1N	60.3W	25	1010	DB
2025/09/23 12:00	17.0N	61.4W	25	1010	DB
2025/09/23 18:00	17.0N	62.2W	25	1010	DB
2025/09/24 00:00	17.3N	63.1W	25	1012	DB
2025/09/24 06:00	17.6N	64.0W	25	1012	DB
2025/09/24 12:00	17.6N	65.4W	25	1012	DB
2025/09/24 18:00	17.7N	66.8W	25	1012	DB
2025/09/25 00:00	17.8N	67.7W	25	1011	DB
2025/09/25 06:00	18.6N	69.1W	25	1011	DB
2025/09/25 12:00	19.5N	70.3W	25	1011	DB
2025/09/25 18:00	19.6N	71.2W	25	1011	DB
2025/09/26 00:00	19.7N	72.0W	25	1009	DB
2025/09/26 06:00	19.8N	72.9W	25	1009	DB
2025/09/26 12:00	20.3N	73.9W	25	1009	DB
2025/09/26 18:00	20.8N	74.8W	30	1008	DB
2025/09/27 00:00	21.3N	75.6W	30	1007	DB
2025/09/27 06:00	21.6N	75.8W	30	1007	DB
2025/09/27 12:00	21.9N	76.1W	30	1005	DB
2025/09/27 18:00	22.1N	76.5W	30	1005	TD
2025/09/28 00:00	22.4N	76.8W	30	1004	TD
2025/09/28 06:00	22.7N	77.1W	30	1003	TD
2025/09/28 12:00	23.1N	77.3W	30	1002	TD
2025/09/28 18:00	23.8N	77.3W	35	998	TS
2025/09/29 00:00	24.6N	77.1W	35	998	TS
2025/09/29 06:00	25.1N	77.1W	40	996	TS
2025/09/29 12:00	26.4N	77.1W	50	992	TS
2025/09/29 18:00	27.2N	77.3W	55	986	TS
2025/09/30 00:00	28.1N	77.3W	55	985	TS
2025/09/30 06:00	28.6N	77.2W	60	982	TS
2025/09/30 12:00	28.9N	76.9W	70	980	HU-1
2025/09/30 18:00	29.1N	76.0W	75	978	HU-1
2025/10/01 00:00	29.4N	74.7W	75	978	HU-1
2025/10/01 06:00	29.9N	73.1W	75	976	HU-1
2025/10/01 12:00	30.7N	71.3W	80	968	HU-1
2025/10/01 18:00	31.3N	69.2W	85	966	HU-2
2025/10/02 00:00	31.8N	66.4W	85	971	HU-2
2025/10/02 06:00	32.5N	63.3W	80	973	HU-1
2025/10/02 12:00	32.9N	60.9W	70	977	HU-1

202019天鹅

温气阶段颇强势
同时促成NA双HFWW盛况

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...
.LOW 39N49W 979 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. WITHIN 120 NM SW AND W
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 55 TO 65 KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 M. ALSO WITHIN 180 NM
OF CENTER...EXCEPT WITHIN 240 NM N QUADRANT WINDS 40 TO 55 KT.
SEAS 5.5 M TO 9 M. ALSO FROM 31N TO 46N E OF 60W WINDS 25 TO 40
KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 M. ELSEWHERE S OF 47N E OF 70W WINDS TO 25 KT.
SEAS 2.5 M TO 4 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 43N46W 982 MB. WITHIN 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 TO 9 M. ALSO FROM 35N TO 53N E OF 60W
WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M. ELSEWHERE S OF 55N E OF 70W
WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N37W 987 MB. WITHIN 120 NM S AND W
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 M. ALSO FROM 44N TO
55N E OF 52W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 35N
TO 55N E OF 60W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M...EXCEPT
WHERE DESCRIBED BELOW WITH LOW 39N48W.