背风群岛以北五级飓风“温贝托”(08L.Humberto) - 西北行进，风眼开出，快速增强 - NHC:140KT

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：董议文、张增海  签发：王海平  2025 年 09 月 30 日 10 时
“温贝托”向北偏西方向移动

时        间:   30日08时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    北大西洋

命        名:    “温贝托”，HUMBERTO

中心位置:    西经68.4度，北纬29.5度

强度等级:    三级飓风

最大风力:    16级，54米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级

中心气压:    945百帕

参考位置:    距离北大西洋百慕大群岛西南方向约520公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“温贝托”强度由17级以上减弱为16级

预报结论:   “温贝托”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向北偏西方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年9月30日08时00分）

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WTNT43 KNHC 300256
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082025
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 29 2025

Northwesterly vertical wind shear is causing Humberto to lose
strength tonight.  Geostationary satellite and microwave images
indicate that the cloud pattern has become asymmetric with the
inner core now fragmented and located near the western edge of the
cloud mass.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating
the hurricane over the past few hours and have found that the
minimum pressure has increased to around 963 mb.  The aircraft data
also indicate that the maximum winds have lowered to around 100 kt.

Humberto is moving north-northwestward at 12 kt on the southwest
side of a subtropical ridge.  The hurricane should turn northward on
Tuesday as the ridge shifts east and weakens. On Wednesday, a mid-
to upper-level trough is expected to amplify over the north
Atlantic, causing Humberto to turn sharply to the northeast or
east-northeast and accelerate.  The models are in good agreement,
and no significant changes were made to the previous forecast.
This track takes the core of Humberto well west and then north of
Bermuda.

Continued steady weakening is expected as northwesterly vertical
wind shear and intrusions of dry air persist over the next day or
two.  By late Wednesday, Humberto is expected to merge with a mid-
to upper-level trough, and that should cause the system to develop
frontal features and complete extratropical transition.  Humberto is
expected to grow significantly in size as it becomes extratropical.
The large extratropical low in combination with Imelda will cause
rough marine conditions over a large portion of the western and
central Atlantic.  See Key Messages below for more information.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Humberto's outer rainbands could produce gusty winds and heavy
rainfall over Bermuda on Tuesday and Wednesday. Please follow
local updates from the Bermuda Weather Service for impacts from
both Humberto and Imelda.

2. Dangerous marine conditions, including high surf and
life-threatening rip currents, will continue to affect beaches of
the northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the east coast
of the United States through the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 30.1N  68.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
12H  30/1200Z 32.0N  68.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
24H  01/0000Z 34.4N  67.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  01/1200Z 36.1N  64.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  02/0000Z 37.4N  58.6W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H  02/1200Z 39.8N  50.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  03/0000Z 43.4N  40.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

hei

圖解兩個風暴藤原下的互相傷害

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：董议文、张增海  签发：王海平  2025 年 09 月 30 日 18 时
“温贝托”向北偏西方向移动

时        间:   30日14时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    北大西洋

命        名:    “温贝托”，HUMBERTO

中心位置:    西经69.3度，北纬31.0度

强度等级:    二级飓风

最大风力:    14级，46米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级

中心气压:    963百帕

参考位置:    距离北大西洋百慕大群岛西南方向约460公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“温贝托”强度由17级减弱为14级

预报结论:   “温贝托”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向北偏西方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年9月30日14时00分）

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WTNT43 KNHC 300855
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082025
500 AM AST Tue Sep 30 2025

Humberto is a highly sheared hurricane.  Strong westerly vertical
wind shear has caused the cyclone to continue its weakening trend.
This is well-demonstrated by a recent AMSR2 microwave image, which
shows that the convection has been sheared off from the western half
of Humberto's circulation.  Although the low-level center is still
underneath the convective area in GOES-19 imagery, it's close to the
western edge of the convection.  The cyclone has taken on an
elongated comma shape, with deep convection extending well off to
the southeast.  Subjective intensity estimates range from 77-90 kt,
and objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 70-85 kt.
The advisory intensity is adjusted downward to 85 kt based primarily
on this data, and also taking into account ASCAT and Air Force
Hurricane Hunter data from 8-9 hours ago.

Humberto is moving toward the north-northwest, or 340 degrees at 15
kt, in between a subtropical ridge to its east and Tropical Storm
Imelda to its west.  Humberto has tracked farther west than the
previous NHC track forecast.  A northward turn is expected over the
next few hours as the ridge shifts east and weakens.  On Wednesday,
a very large mid- to upper-level trough is expected to amplify over
the north Atlantic, causing Humberto to turn sharply to the
east-northeast and accelerate.  The NHC track forecast has been
adjusted well to the left of the previous forecast at the 12 and 24
hour points, and is a bit slower than the previous forecast at 36-48
hours.  The new NHC forecast is very near the various consensus
aids.  This track takes the core of Humberto well west and then
north of Bermuda.

Steady weakening is expected over the next 12 h as northwesterly
vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air persist, followed by
more gradual weakening over the next day or two.  By late Wednesday,
Humberto is expected to merge with a mid-to upper-level trough, and
that should cause the system to quickly develop frontal features and
complete extratropical transition.  The global models agree that
Humberto will then become extremely elongated along the front and
will likely no longer have a closed circulation by Thursday
afternoon, so the new NHC forecast has moved forward the time of
dissipation.  It is important to convey that Humberto is forecast to
be a large and powerful cyclone until it dissipates on Thursday.  
The large extratropical low in combination with Imelda will cause
rough marine conditions over a large portion of the western and
central Atlantic. See Key Messages below for more information.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Humberto's outer rainbands could produce gusty winds and heavy
rainfall over Bermuda today and Wednesday. Please follow local
updates from the Bermuda Weather Service for impacts from both
Humberto and Imelda.

2. Dangerous marine conditions, including high surf and
life-threatening rip currents, will continue to affect beaches of
the northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the east coast
of the United States through the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 31.6N  69.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
12H  30/1800Z 33.5N  69.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  01/0600Z 35.5N  67.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  01/1800Z 36.5N  63.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  02/0600Z 37.3N  57.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Enceladus

难兄难弟

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WTNT43 KNHC 301444
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082025
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 30 2025

Humberto is quickly decoupling.  Strong westerly vertical wind shear
has exposed the low-level circulation, with a curved band of deep
convection still present in the northeastern quadrant.  The Air
Force Hurricane Hunters have just completed their final mission into
Humberto, finding peak flight-level winds of 77 kt and a rising
central minimum pressure.  The initial intensity has been lowered to
a possibly generous 70 kt.

The hurricane is moving at an estimated 340/16 kt.  Humberto is
expect to turn northward and north-northeastward later today,
followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday with an
increase in forward motion as the hurricane merges with a large mid-
to upper-level trough over the north Atlantic.  The latest
official track forecast has shifted slightly to the west, largely
due to the current north-northwest motion.

Humberto should gradually weaken while it transitions into a strong
extratropical cyclone.  Global models suggest this transition will
occur sooner than previously expected, and the official forecast now
shows Humberto as an extratropical cyclone by Wednesday.  By
Thursday, the cyclone is forecast to elongate along a frontal
boundary extending southwestward toward Imelda and lose its closed
circulation.  The hurricane is producing a large area of hazardous
marine conditions over the western and central Atlantic, where
life-threatening rip currents are expected to affect beaches along
the eastern seaboard through the week.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Dangerous marine conditions, including high surf and
life-threatening rip currents, will continue to affect beaches of
the northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the east coast
of the United States through the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 33.0N  69.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
12H  01/0000Z 34.8N  69.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  01/1200Z 36.2N  66.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H  02/0000Z 37.0N  61.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

ygsj24

000
WTNT43 KNHC 302040
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082025
500 PM AST Tue Sep 30 2025

Deep convection has persisted in the northeast quadrant through the
day and is now partially obscuring the low-level circulation.  An
afternoon AMSR2 microwave satellite pass showed curved band wrapping
around eastern semicircle of the hurricane.  Given the slightly
improved satellite presentation and the earlier aircraft data, the
initial intensity remains at 70 kt. The wind radii have been updated
based on a couple scatterometer passes from 1339 and 1500 UTC.

Humberto has turned northward and is moving an estimated 15 kt as
the hurricane nears the mid-latitude trough to its north.  Later
today, the cyclone is expected to turn northeast and on Wednesday to
the east-northeast in the westerly flow.  Only minor updates have
made to the latest NHC track forecast, which lies on the leading
edge of the track guidance envelope.

Model guidance suggests Humberto should gradually weaken while it
merges with the mid- to upper-level trough during the next day or
so. Humberto's dissipation has once again been moved up based on
recent model trends, now at 36 h.  While the official intensity
forecast shows Humberto becoming an extratropical cyclone on
Wednesday, the European model is showing the potential that it could
retain deep organized convection up until the cyclone becomes
elongated and loses its closed surface circulation.  The hurricane
is producing a large area of hazardous marine conditions over the
western and central Atlantic, where life-threatening rip currents
are expected to affect beaches throughout the region through the
week.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Dangerous marine conditions, including high surf and
life-threatening rip currents, will continue to affect beaches of
the northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the east coast
of the United States through the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 34.0N  69.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
12H  01/0600Z 35.3N  68.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  01/1800Z 36.1N  65.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹越男  签发：吕心艳  2025 年 10 月 01 日 10 时
“温贝托”向偏北方向移动

时        间:   1日08时

海        域:    北大西洋

命        名:    “温贝托”，HUMBERTO

中心位置:    西经69.0度，北纬34.6度

强度等级:    一级飓风

最大风力:    12级，35米/秒，相当于我国的台风级

中心气压:    979百帕

参考位置:    距离北大西洋百慕大群岛西北方向约453公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“温贝托”强度由16级减弱为12级

预报结论:   “温贝托”将以每小时30公里左右的速度向偏北方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。



图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年10月1日08时00分）

ygsj24

080
WTNT43 KNHC 010245
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082025
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 30 2025

Humberto continues to produce a very large area of deep convection,
primarily to the northeast of its circulation center. However, a
2106 UTC GPM microwave pass received after the prior advisory still
showed the low-level center was mostly exposed on the southwest edge
of the cirrus canopy. Satellite estimates have only been in the
45-55 kt range for the last 6-12 hours. However, a recently received
ASCAT pass showed a peak wind retrieval of 61 kt, and assuming the
significant low bias of this instrument at hurricane intensity, the
initial intensity is being held at 70 kt for this advisory. Wind
radii were also adjusted based on the scatterometer data.

The hurricane appears to have made an east-northeastward turn, but
has not accelerated, with the motion estimated at 065/9 kt. A
longwave mid-latitude trough located to the north of Humberto is
quickly dropping southward and will soon start to impinge upon the
hurricane's circulation. The resulting interaction should cause a
strengthening frontal boundary to form to the northeast of
Humberto's center. In fact, the scatterometer data already shows
this boundary beginning to develop in the convection. The global and
hurricane-regional model fields now show Humberto's circulation
quickly becoming indistinguishable from the intensifying baroclinic
zone in 18-24 h. The latest NHC track and intensity forecast will
now show Humberto merging with this boundary by that time. The
remnant vorticity of the storm may ultimately be advected
towards Imelda's circulation beyond that time frame, as it also
interacts with the same boundary.

Regardless of Humberto's evolution, the hurricane, in combination
with Imelda is producing a large area of hazardous marine conditions
over the western and central Atlantic, where life-threatening rip
currents are expected to affect beaches throughout the region
through the week.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Dangerous marine conditions, including high surf and
life-threatening rip currents, will continue to affect beaches of
the northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the east coast
of the United States through the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 34.8N  68.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
12H  01/1200Z 35.3N  67.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  02/0000Z...MERGED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY

$$
Forecaster Papin