LOW - 雅浦岛西北90W - 11.2N 137.3E - 逐渐西行发展，远期或进入南海

xzt123456789

JTWC: DOWNGRADED TO LOW

ABPW10 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/190300Z-190600ZAUG2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181951ZAUG2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181421ZAUG2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) ......
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) ......
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.9N 141.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 138.5E, APPROXIMATELY 97 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TURNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE PRESENT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VWS (VERTICAL WIND SHEAR), GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (30-31C).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90W WILL TRACK NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2) TO
LOW.//
NNNN

waiyip2804

A.lkk 发表于 2025-8-19 07:36
8.18 12Z 有所調弱並分散

應該係兩系統

菜园子

AIFS 00Z继续调南调弱

lawman

菜园子 发表于 2025-8-19 13:44
AIFS 00Z继续调南调弱

典型例子橫過呂宋後風結構受損愈行愈西吧

p010-536

可否解釋一下為何昨天和今天報出的結果大相逕庭？

lawman

p010-536 发表于 2025-8-19 20:39
可否解釋一下為何昨天和今天報出的結果大相逕庭？

前期發展是否正如數據預測是一個關鍵
如何橫過呂宋進入南海都是一個關鍵
好多變數
結果有所不同是正常

lawman

90W行得實在太快.......
如果速度不變，定位推算明日下午就到菲律賓，後日下午就掠過香港南面

如果我無記錯初始數據預星期日日間先過香港南面

lawman

根據高層流線及風切似乎90W高空有氣流外流跡象更有利對流活動，問題90W會不會減速爭取一些時間

HKUncle

香港天文台九天天氣預報，24/8星期日至星期二離岸及高地達6級(3號風球風力)，參考GEM預測和天文台相近。
現時個風仍未成熱帶氣旋，相信到個風成熱帶氣旋後其移動路線會較明確。

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=22.1 ... 0825/0300&m=gem

余星

lawman 发表于 2025-8-20 07:52
90W行得實在太快.......
如果速度不變，定位推算明日下午就到菲律賓，後日下午就掠過香港南面

体怕仲快过莎莉