墨西哥西南热带风暴“达莉拉”(04E.Dalila)

红豆棒冰冰

今天上午SAR扫到79kt

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹迈  签发：许映龙  2025 年 06 月 15 日 18 时
“达莉拉”向偏西方向移动

时        间:    15日14时（北京时）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “达莉拉”，DALILA

中心位置:    西经106.7度, 北纬17.9度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    10级，28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压:    996百帕

参考位置:    墨西哥科利马州曼萨尼约西南方向约283公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“达莉拉”强度缓慢增强

预报结论:    “达莉拉”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。

ygsj24

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 151141
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dalila Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
500 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025

...DALILA MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 107.4W
ABOUT 215 MI...340 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm
Warnings for coastal southwestern Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 107.4 West. Dalila is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general
motion is expected during the next couple days, as Dalila moves
farther away from the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, with the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low tonight
or Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header
WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected
across portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero
this morning, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches near the
coast. Any instances of flash flooding and mudslides should
decrease later today.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Gusty winds are possible along the coast of southwestern
Mexico this morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico today. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 12Z分析降至T2.5/3.5

TXPZ26 KNES 151225
TCSENP
A.  04E (DALILA)
B.  15/1200Z
C.  18.3N
D.  107.5W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T2.5/3.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSR2
H.  REMARKS...4/10 BROKEN BANDING YIELDS A DT=2.5. MET=2.0. PT=2.5. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE PT SINCE RAPID DETERIORATION OF DEEP CONVECTION AND
BANDING MAY NOT BE FULLY CAPTURED BY DVORAK RULES AND AN ADJUSTMENT WAS
MADE TO THE MET.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    15/0832Z 18.2N 107.0W AMSR2
...LEE

pocketbox

WTPZ44 KNHC 151434
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
800 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025

Dalila's satellite appearance has degraded since the previous
advisory. Cloud tops have been warming, and what convection remains
is displaced to the southwest. First-light visible imagery showed
that the system has decoupled with the low-level center exposed due
to moderate northeasterly wind shear. Given the current satellite
presentation, subjective and objective intensity estimates have
started to drop-off, and the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt
for this advisory.

Dalila is moving towards the west-northwest, at an estimated 295/8
kt. As Dalila continues to weaken and becomes a shallower vortex, a
turn towards the west is expected within the low-level wind flow.
The current NHC track forecast is similar to the previous, near the
consensus aids.

The storm will continue to weaken today within a cooler SSTs and a
drier, more stable environment. Dalila is already struggling to
produce convection and should become a post-tropical cyclone later
tonight. The latest intensity forecast shows steady weakening and
the system dissipating in a couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 18.2N 107.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  16/0000Z 18.3N 109.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H  16/1200Z 18.3N 110.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  17/0000Z 18.2N 112.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  17/1200Z 18.2N 114.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

ygsj24

788
WTPZ44 KNHC 152038
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
200 PM MST Sun Jun 15 2025

Dalila's convection has collapsed, leaving behind a single
fragmented band of thunderstorms.  Subjective and objective
satellite estimates have lowered this cycle and the initial
intensity has been reduced to 40 kt based on a blend of the TAFB and
SAB Dvorak estimates. Dalila is expected to continue weakening as
the storm moves over cooler waters and into a hostile environment.
The NHC intensity forecast predicts Dalila to become a post-tropical
remnant low later today.

The storm is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt and should continue
gradually turning westward in the low-level flow. A more westward
motion is expected in the next day or two until the system
dissipates in a couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 18.2N 108.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  16/0600Z 18.3N 109.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  16/1800Z 18.3N 111.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  17/0600Z 18.2N 113.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  17/1800Z 18.2N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci