墨西哥以南一级飓风“芭芭拉”(02E.Barbara) - 西北行进，东太新风季首飓 - NHC:65KT

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：王皘  签发：吕心艳  2025 年 06 月 10 日 18 时
“芭芭拉”向西北方向移动

时        间:    10日14时（北京时）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “芭芭拉”，BARBARA

中心位置:    西经107.8度, 北纬18.8度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    10级，25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压:    999百帕

参考位置:    墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角东南方向约510公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“芭芭拉”强度变化不大

预报结论:    “芭芭拉”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向西北方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年6月10日15时30分）

红豆棒冰冰

今天中午ASCAT风场扫描

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 12Z分析T2.5/3.0

TXPZ24 KNES 101220
TCSENP
A.  02E (BARBARA)
B.  10/1200Z
C.  19.2N
D.  108.5W
E.  THREE/GOES-W
F.  T2.5/3.0
G.  IR/EIR/PRXY
H.  REMARKS...4/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. THE MET IS 3.0 BASED ON
A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS 2.5. THE FT IS BASED
ON THE PT SINCE CONVECTION WAS PULSING AND A PATTERN ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...COVERDALE

yhh

WTPZ42 KNHC 101452
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022025
800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025

Conventional satellite imagery and a recent microwave overpass
indicate that Barbara's surface circulation has become exposed to
the north of the convective mass.  Subsequently, northerly shear
appears to be undercutting the outflow aloft.  A burst of cold
cloud tops of -76 C developed just south of the center overnight.
Recent images, however, show the cloud tops have warmed
significantly while the cyclone traverses over a sharp temperature
gradient of SSTs less than 24 C.  The subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates range from 40 to 65 kt, and as a
compromise, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this
advisory.

Further weakening is expected through the period as the system
continues to move over cooler water and into a more stable and dry
surrounding environment. The official intensity forecast shows
Barbara degenerating to a remnant low in 24 hr and dissipating by
Wednesday night. The NHC intensity forecast is based on the global
models and the IVCN intensity consensus model, and is essentially
an update of the previous forecast.

Based on the aforementioned microwave pass, Barbara has been moving
a little to the right and a bit faster than the previous forecast,
and is now moving northwestward, or 315/8 kt.  Barbara should
continue moving toward the northwest through dissipation on
Wednesday. The official track forecast lies between the skilled HCCA
and TVCE consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 19.9N 108.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  11/0000Z 20.8N 109.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  11/1200Z 21.3N 110.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

ygsj24

361
WTPZ42 KNHC 102037
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022025
200 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025

This afternoon's satellite presentation shows Barbara quickly
spinning down.  Deep convection associated with the cyclone has
diminished considerably during the past few hours and has revealed
an exposed surface circulation well to the northeast of a
mid-level center.  The initial intensity is once again lowered, to
35 kt, and is based on a blend of the various subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates.

Based on current convective trends and the global models, Barbara
should become a remnant low later tonight while it continues moving
over cooler waters and into a harsh atmospheric environment.

Barbara has been moving to the right of track within the peripheral
steering flow of the low- to mid-level high anchored over central
Mexico.  Consequently, the initial motion is estimated to be
northward or 010/7 kt.  Barbara should continue this general motion
through dissipation on Wednesday.  The official track forecast
is adjusted to the right of the previous advisory and lies close to
the ECMWF and TVCE consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 20.9N 108.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  11/0600Z 21.7N 107.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Mora/Roberts

红豆棒冰冰

稍早前ASCAT风场扫描

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 18Z分析降至T1.5/2.5，00Z分析降至T1.0/2.0

TXPZ24 KNES 101820
TCSENP
A.  02E (BARBARA)
B.  10/1800Z
C.  20.6N
D.  108.2W
E.  THREE/GOES-W
F.  T1.5/2.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...LESS THAN 2/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF LESS THAN 1.0. THE
MET IS 2.5 BASED ON RAPID WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT
IS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING THE CHANGE IN T-NUMBER
TO 1.0 OVER SIX HOURS.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...COVERDALE

TXPZ24 KNES 110029
TCSENP
A.  02E (BARBARA)
B.  11/0000Z
C.  21.0N
D.  108.0W
E.  FIVE/GOES-W
F.  T1.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS LESS THAN 2/10 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING
A DT OF LESS THAN 1.0. MET = 1.5 AND PT= 1.0. THE FT IS BASED ON
CONSTRAINTS.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...KIBLER

红豆棒冰冰

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2025-6-11 08:55
SSD 18Z分析降至T1.5/2.5，00Z分析降至T1.0/2.0

SSD稍早前修改00Z分析

TXPZ24 KNES 110119
TCSENP
CCA
A.  02E (BARBARA)
B.  11/0000Z
C.  21.0N
D.  108.0W
E.  FIVE/GOES-E
F.  T1.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...CORRECTION FOR GOES-18 USED FOR CLASSIFICATION. CONVECTION
WRAPS LESS THAN 2/10 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF LESS THAN 1.0. MET =
1.5 AND PT= 1.0. THE FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...KIBLER

pocketbox

WTPZ42 KNHC 110232
TCDEP2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Barbara Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022025
800 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025

Earlier today, the mid-level circulation of Barbara was sheared off
to the southwest.  As a result, all that remains of the system is a
weak low-level swirl as evidenced by an AMSR-E microwave image from
a few hours ago.  The system lacks sufficient deep convection to
qualify as a tropical cyclone, and this will be the last advisory
on Barbara.  Assuming a steady spin down of the circulation, the
current intensity is set at 25 kt.

The remnant low is drifting northward at about 010/4 kt.  This
general motion should continue into Wednesday and until the system
dissipates.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 21.2N 108.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H  11/1200Z 22.0N 107.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：黄奕武  签发：吕心艳  2025 年 06 月 11 日 10 时
“芭芭拉”减弱为热带低压

时        间:    11日08时（北京时）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “芭芭拉”，BARBARA

中心位置:    西经108.0度, 北纬21.0度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    7级，15米/秒，相当于我国的热带低压

中心气压:    1007百帕

参考位置:    墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角东南方向约565公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“芭芭拉”强度由11级减弱为7级

预报结论:    “芭芭拉”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向北偏东方向移动，逐渐减弱消散。

（这是关于“芭芭拉”的最后一期监测公报）



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年6月11日08时00分）