墨西哥西南热带风暴“科斯梅”(03E.Cosme) - 远期与02E藤原

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 18Z分析降至T2.0/3.0，00Z分析降至T1.5/2.5

TXPZ25 KNES 101829
TCSENP
A.  03E (COSME)
B.  10/1800Z
C.  15.9N
D.  115.1W
E.  THREE/GOES-W
F.  T2.0/3.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. THE MET IS 2.5 BASED ON A
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED
ON THE PT SINCE THE BANDING FEATURE WAS NOT CLEAR CUT AND A PATTERN
ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    10/1413Z 15.5N 115.2W SSMIS
...COVERDALE

TXPZ25 KNES 110022
TCSENP
A.  03E (COSME)
B.  11/0000Z
C.  15.9N
D.  115.2W
E.  FIVE/GOES-W
F.  T1.5/2.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS BARELY 3/10 BANDING ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET = 2.0 AND PT = 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE
PT DUE TO BANDING FEATURE WAS NOT CLEAR CUT AND PT ADJUSTED DOWN FROM
THE MET.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...KIBLER

红豆棒冰冰

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2025-6-11 08:42
SSD 18Z分析降至T2.0/3.0，00Z分析降至T1.5/2.5

SSD稍早前修改00Z分析

TXPZ25 KNES 110119
TCSENP
CCA
A.  03E (COSME)
B.  11/0000Z
C.  15.9N
D.  115.2W
E.  FIVE/GOES-E
F.  T1.5/2.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...CORRECTION FOR GOES-18 USED FOR CLASSIFICATION. CONVECTION
WRAPS BARELY 3/10 BANDING ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET =
2.0 AND PT = 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO BANDING FEATURE WAS
NOT CLEAR CUT AND PT ADJUSTED DOWN FROM THE MET.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...KIBLER

pocketbox

WTPZ43 KNHC 110231
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
800 PM MST Tue Jun 10 2025

Cosme is quickly on the path to becoming a remnant low.  Satellite
images show that the low- and mid-level centers have separated,
with the low-level circulation well northeast of the mid-level one
now.  Dvorak intensity estimates continue to fall, and the initial
intensity is set to 40 kt.  Further weakening is anticipated due to
persistent shear, cool waters and dry air entrainment.  Cosme
should transition into a remnant low on Wednesday morning and
totally dissipate in a couple of days.  

The storm has taken its long-awaited turn, now moving slowly to the
north-northeast. Cosme, or what's left of it, should move a
little faster to the north late Wednesday and then dissipate into a
trough of low pressure due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
No significant changes were made to the track or intensity
forecasts.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 15.9N 114.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  11/1200Z 16.4N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  12/0000Z 17.3N 114.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  12/1200Z 18.4N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：黄奕武  签发：吕心艳  2025 年 06 月 11 日 10 时
“科斯梅”强度逐渐减弱

时        间:    11日08时（北京时）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “科斯梅”，COSME

中心位置:    西经115.0度, 北纬15.8度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    8级，20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压:    1005百帕

参考位置:    墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角西南方向约965公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“科斯梅”强度由11级逐渐增强为8级

预报结论:    “科斯梅”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向东北方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年6月11日08时00分）

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 06Z分析认定温带气旋

TXPZ25 KNES 110553
TCSENP
A.  03E (COSME)
B.  11/0530Z
C.  15.7N
D.  115.2W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  EXTRATROPICAL
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM DEVOID OF CONVECTION. LOWER SST'S AND A STABLE
REGIONAL ENVIRONMENT WILL HAMPER REDEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL
BULLETIN.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...LEE

ygsj24

077
WTPZ43 KNHC 110833
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
200 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025

Drier mid-level air and stable atmospheric conditions have taken
their toll on Cosme. The system has been devoid of deep convection
for several hours and is expected to become a remnant low later this
morning. Dvorak intensity estimates continue to decrease
accordingly. A 11/0442 UTC ASCAT pass showed winds in the 35-40 kt
range in the southern semicircle. Assuming additional weakening
after that time, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt.  After
transitioning to a remnant low later this morning, Cosme is expected
to dissipate by late Thursday or Friday.

The storm is now moving slowly toward the northeast. A gradual turn
to the north-northeast with some acceleration is expected later
today, followed by a turn to the north on Thursday. Only a slight
eastward adjustment was made to the previous NHC track forecast,
with no significant changes to the intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 16.2N 114.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  11/1800Z 16.7N 114.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  12/0600Z 17.5N 113.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  12/1800Z 18.4N 113.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Hagen

红豆棒冰冰

今天中午ASCAT风场扫描

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：黄奕武  签发：董林  2025 年 06 月 11 日 18 时
“科斯梅”强度逐渐减弱

时    间: 11日14时（北京时）

海    域: 东北太平洋

命    名: “科斯梅”，COSME

中心位置: 西经114.7度, 北纬16.0度

强度等级: 热带风暴

最大风力: 8级，18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压: 1006百帕

参考位置: 墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角西南方向约950公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“科斯梅”强度由11级逐渐减弱为8级

预报结论: “科斯梅”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向北偏东方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年6月11日14时00分）

红豆棒冰冰

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2025-6-11 15:05
SSD 06Z分析认定温带气旋

SSD稍早前更正06Z分析，改为T1.0/2.0

TXPZ25 KNES 111025
TCSENP
CCA
A.  03E (COSME)
B.  11/0530Z
C.  15.7N
D.  115.2W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T1.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...CORRECTED DUE TO CLASSIFICATION DEFINITION. NO CONVECTION
YIELDS A DT=0. MET=2.0. PT=1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING
CHANGE IN T NO BY 0.5 IN 6 HRS.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...LEE

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 12Z分析TOO WEAK

TXPZ25 KNES 111228
TCSENP
A.  03E (COSME)
B.  11/1200Z
C.  16.3N
D.  114.4W
E.  FIVE/GOES-E
F.  TOO WEAK
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSR2
H.  REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO THE LACK OF A
LLCC AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    11/0857Z 16.0N 114.0W AMSR2
...LINER