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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-4-8 18:00 编辑
WTPS32 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 23.4S 177.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 177.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.3S 178.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 26.5S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 27.5S 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 28.8S 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 32.2S 176.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 39.1S 176.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 23.9S 177.9E.
08APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1079 NM NORTH OF WELLINGTON, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080600Z IS 973 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
082100Z AND 090900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
- WDPS32 PGTW 080900
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR
- 012//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 23.4S 177.8E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1079 NM NORTH OF WELLINGTON, NEW ZEALAND
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
- CYCLONE (TC) 31P (VAIANU) CONTINUING ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TRANSIT
- ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). THE
- INTENSITY OF THE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED
- SIGNIFICANTLY AND IS NOW WELL EXCEEDING 30 KTS, RESULTING IN
- DECOUPLING OF THE DEEP CONVECTION POLEWARD AND EASTWARD. THE LOW-LEVEL
- CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL OBSCURED, BUT THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT IS
- BECOMING INCREASINGLY EXPOSED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH
- HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 080442Z F18 SSMIS 37 AND 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
- IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
- CERTAINTY BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
- ALGORITHMS LISTED BELOW. ADDITIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
- CONTINUED ENTRAINMENT OF DRY, MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR FROM THE NORTH AND
- COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, CULMINATING IN A MARGINALLY
- UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SIGNIFICANT REORGANIZATION. PARTIALLY
- MITIGATING THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS ARE STILL RELATIVELY WARM (26-27 C)
- SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ROBUST POLEWARD-DIRECTED OUTFLOW CHANNEL
- ALOFT.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO
- THE NORTHEAST
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
- KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 93 KTS AT 080148Z
- CIMSS ADT: 69 KTS AT 080540Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 63 KTS AT 080540Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 78 KTS AT 080441Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 56 KTS AT 080640Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
- UNFAVORABLE
- VWS: 30+ KTS
- SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
- OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTH
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 31P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON ITS PRESENT
- SOUTHEASTWARD HEADING THROUGH TAU 36, UNDER THE PERSISTENT STEERING
- INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. BEYOND THAT
- TIMEFRAME, THE CYCLONE IS SLATED TO CROSS TO THE POLEWARD SIDE OF
- THE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS, ENTERING AN AREA OF INCREASING
- SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL
- TROUGH. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
- SIGNIFICANTLY ABATE. WHILE MODEL FIELDS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
- DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM, TC 31P IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A
- BROAD WIND FIELD AND A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL AND MOIST STRUCTURE,
- RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRESERVED INTENSITY. AROUND TAU 48
- AN EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGING LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL
- PROMPT A TRANSIENT DEFLECTION AND ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM TOWARD
- THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL TC VAIANU ROUNDS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE EXTENSION
- SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72. CONCURRENTLY, THE INITIATION OF A SUBTROPICAL
- TRANSITION IS IMMINENT AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES A SIGNIFICANTLY
- COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT (BELOW 26C). THE SUBTROPICAL
- TRANSITION (STT) PROCESS IS FORECAST TO CONCLUDE JUST PRIOR TO TAU 96
- AS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION CROSSES THE COASTLINE OF NORTH ISLAND, NEW
- ZEALAND AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PRIMARY JET STREAK FLOW. WITH
- RESPECT TO INTENSITY, A STEADY ATTRITION IS PROJECTED AS VERTICAL WIND
- SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE TO 35-40 KTS BY TAU 24. AS THE
- SHEAR VECTOR IS FORECAST TO MODERATE AROUND TAU 48, THE RATE OF DECAY
- SHOULD DIMINISH, WITH THE DYNAMIC INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
- TROUGH EXPECTED TO HELP MAINTAIN A VORTEX INTENSITY OF 40-45 KTS DEEP
- INTO ITS SUBTROPICAL PHASE. WHILE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL OVER NEW
- ZEALAND, FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION WILL FURTHER
- ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING PHASE AND POTENTIALLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATE
- THE VORTEX CONCURRENTLY TO COMPLETION OF THE STT.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE IS A ROBUST AGREEMENT AMONG THE NUMERICAL
- MODEL GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE FORECAST TRACK, WHICH PROVIDES HIGH
- CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRAJECTORY. SIMILARLY, THE
- INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS DEMONSTRATES A STRONG CONFLUENCE
- REGARDING THE OVERALL DECAY SCENARIO. THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY
- SPREAD WIDENS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, AS SOME MODELS INDICATE
- VORTEX DISSIPATION SOON AFTER TAU 72, THEREBY SLIGHTLY REDUCING
- LONG-RANGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. BOTH THE OFFICIAL TRACK AND THE
- INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE ANCHORED FIRMLY TO THE MULTI-MODEL
- CONSENSUS MEAN.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
- TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
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楼主: 大水台6
发表于 2026-4-8 08:10
