所罗门海五级强热带气旋“迈拉”(37U/30P.Maila) - 巴新十八年来首个命名热带气旋，在所罗门海回旋 - BoM:115KT JTWC:125KT

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-4-6 15:05

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-4-6 15:45 编辑

IDQ20065
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 5:00 pm EST on Monday 6 April 2026

At 4 pm AEST Monday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila (Category 3) with central
pressure 968 hPa was located near latitude 9.9 south longitude 155.2 east,
which is about 525 km west of Honiara and 880 km east of Port Moresby.

The cyclone is moving southeast at 7 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila, 37U, is currently located in the Solomon Sea.
The steering influences are balanced and Maila is expected to be slow moving
over the Solomon Sea before moving west southwest by Thursday.

Maila is expected to remain well away from the Queensland coast during the next
few days, but confidence is increasing in Maila moving towards the Far North
Queensland coast later in the week, potentially crossing the coast on the
weekend.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11:00 pm AEST Monday 06 April.

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0732 UTC 06/04/2026
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila
Identifier: 37U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 9.9S
Longitude: 155.2E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: southeast (124 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 100 knots (185 km/h)
Central Pressure: 968 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 130 nm (240 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 130 nm (240 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm (260 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC)       : degrees    :    nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  06/1200:  9.9S 155.4E:    030 (060):  070  (130):  966
+12:  06/1800:  9.9S 155.7E:    040 (075):  080  (150):  958
+18:  07/0000: 10.0S 156.0E:    045 (085):  085  (155):  953
+24:  07/0600: 10.0S 156.1E:    050 (090):  090  (165):  947
+36:  07/1800:  9.9S 155.9E:    055 (100):  090  (165):  947
+48:  08/0600:  9.8S 155.4E:    065 (115):  085  (155):  953
+60:  08/1800:  9.8S 154.6E:    075 (140):  075  (140):  963
+72:  09/0600: 10.3S 153.4E:    090 (170):  070  (130):  968
+96:  10/0600: 11.6S 150.1E:    115 (215):  065  (120):  973
+120: 11/0600: 12.5S 147.0E:    155 (285):  070  (130):  969
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila meandering in the Solomon Sea.

Position is based on animated Vis imagery, and was assisted by an earlier AMSR2
pass at 0255 UTC with good confidence.

Intensity is assessed at 70 kn, influenced by a consensus of subjective Dvorak
and objective guidance (particularly SATCON). Dvorak analysis DT varies from
4.0 applying a Vis curved band pattern (1.1), to 5.0 applying an EIR embedded
centre pattern higher. MET=3.5 based on a W- 24h trend and adjusted to 4.0.
FT/CI=4.0/4.5. Available objective guidance at 0600 UTC (all 1-minute mean)
includes ADT 57 kn, AiDT 61 kn, DPRINT 83 kn, DMINT 73kn (0320 UTC), MW
sounders 92 kn (0319 UTC), and SATCON 83 kn.

Maila remains in an environment generally favourable for further
intensification, with vertical wind shear 16 kn easterly, SSTs near 30C, and
good upper-level outflow, especially equatorward. Guidance suggests some
further intensification into Tuesday then followed by some weakening. The slow
motion will likely cause upwelling of cooler water aiding to weaken the system.
The extent of any weakening on Thursday will also depend on whether it tracks
over eastern PNG as suggested by some guidance.

The steering pattern remains finely balanced, with a ridge to the south and
northwesterly flow to the north. The current short term motion to the east
southeast is forecast to turn to the northwest later Tuesday. By Thursday, a
strengthening mid-level ridge to the east is expected to steer Maila west
southwest. This takes it past the PNG southeastern islands that could face a
prolonged period of very hazardous winds.

There is increasing confidence in a track towards the Cape York Peninsula later
in the week. Confidence in this steering direction has increased however there
still remains considerable spread in the speed of motion.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/1330 UTC.

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	4 pm April 6	3	9.9S	155.2E	35
+6hr	10 pm April 6	3	9.9S	155.4E	60
+12hr	4 am April 7	3	9.9S	155.7E	75
+18hr	10 am April 7	3	10.0S	156.0E	85
+24hr	4 pm April 7	4	10.0S	156.1E	90
+36hr	4 am April 8	4	9.9S	155.9E	100
+48hr	4 pm April 8	3	9.8S	155.4E	115
+60hr	4 am April 9	3	9.8S	154.6E	140
+72hr	4 pm April 9	3	10.3S	153.4E	170

ygsj24 · 发表于 2026-4-6 16:22

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-4-6 18:00 编辑

WTPS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 9.7S 155.3E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7S 155.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 9.8S 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 9.7S 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 9.5S 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 9.4S 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 9.7S 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 10.5S 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 11.4S 147.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 9.7S 155.4E.
06APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 703
NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
060600Z IS 964 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR
006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 9.7S 155.3E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 85 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 703 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE
SOLOMON SEA. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) IMAGERY SHOWS A TRANSIENT EYE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP, WITH
ANOTHER ATTEMPT ONGOING AT THE PRESENT TIME. HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL A MODERATE AMOUNT OF VORTEX TILT DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE
EASTERLY SHEAR (CURRENTLY ESTIMATED AT 16 KNOTS BY CIMSS). WHILE
DEEP CONVECTIVE HOT TOWERS CONSISTENTLY FORM ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE NASCENT EYE (AS DEPICTED IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY), THEY
FAIL TO ROTATE UPSHEAR DUE TO THE MODERATE SHEAR, INHIBITING
INTENSIFICATION. THUS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STAGNANT IN
TERMS OF INTENSITY FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF EARLIER
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE HIGH CONGRUENCE OF AGENCY FIX POSITIONS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON
A BLEND OF THE AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES,
SUPPORTED BY THE CIMSS D-PRINT AND SATCON. OF NOTE, THE ADT AND
AIDT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY UNDERESTIMATING THE INTENSITY OF TC
30P. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, WITH MODERATE EASTERLY
SHEAR, WARM SSTS AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. A NOTABLE NEGATIVE
FACTOR IS THE UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS, WITH THE LATEST OHC AND
SST ANALYSES SUGGESTING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER WATER MAY
ALREADY BE REACHING THE SURFACE.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING PATTERN, WITH A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA AND STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW JUST SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. CURRENTLY,
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS SLIGHTLY PREDOMINANT.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
ABRF: T4.5 - 77 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 83 KTS AT 060600Z
CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 060530Z
CIMSS AIDT: 61 KTS AT 060530Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 73 KTS AT 060320Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 87 KTS AT 060700Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
OTHER FACTORS: UPWELLING OF COOLER OCEANIC WATERS REDUCING OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT.
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 30P (MAILA) IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE MEANDERING AROUND THE SOLOMON SEA FOR THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS IN A WEAK AND COMPETING STEERING PATTERN. CURRENTLY, THE
NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW TO THE NORTH APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY
AHEAD IN TERMS OF THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE, PUSHING TC 30P
SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN HOWEVER, AND BY TAU 36 SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW A
GRADUAL CHANGE IN THE TRAJECTORY TC 30P, WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY LOOP NORTH THEN WESTWARD BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, RIDGING
BUILDING TO THE EAST OF TC 30P WILL INITIATE A KICK-OUT TOWARDS
THE WEST, THEN AFTER TAU 72, THE STR OVER AUSTRALIA IS FORECAST TO
BUILD AND MOVE EASTWARD TO A POSITION SOUTH OF TC 30P. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN ACCELERATING TRAJECTORY TOWARDS WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH
TAU 120. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF
PAPUA NEW GUINEA, PASSING CLOSE TO THE EASTERN APPROACHES OF MILNE
BAY AROUND TAU 96, THEN MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE
CORAL SEA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY,
THE SYSTEM HAS ONLY A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO GAIN FURTHER
INTENSITY, BEFORE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS REACH THE SURFACE AND
CHOKE OFF ITS ENERGY SOURCE. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK OF 95
KNOTS AT TAU 12, THEN A LEVELING OFF PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY RAPID
WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 48 AS MODELS PREDICT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
COULD DROP AS LOW AS 23C IN THE COLD UPWELLED REGION. AFTER THE
SYSTEM KICKS OUT TO THE WEST AND AWAY FROM THE COLD POOL, A PERIOD
OF REINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST, WITH A SECOND PEAK OF AROUND 90
KNOTS EXPECTED AROUND TAU 72. HOW HIGH THIS SECOND PEAK REACHES
ULTIMATELY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WHILE LOITERING
OVER THE COLD POOL, WHICH POTENTIALLY COULD BE MUCH MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECASTED. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE TIP OF PAPUA NEW
GUINEA, THE VORTEX IS LIKELY TO BE SHREDDED, ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
INFLOW DISRUPTION, LEADING TO A SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING. WHILE THE
SYSTEM SHOULD RECOVER ONCE IN THE CORAL SEA, FORECASTED MODERATE
SHEAR WILL KEEP A LID ON REINTENSIFICATION, THOUGH THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FINAL FORECAST POINT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK BEYOND TAU 72.
MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS STEADILY COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. AT THIS POINT, THE BULK OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS NOW
AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24, A COUNTER-CLOCKWISE
LOOP BACK TO THE WEST BY TAU 48 AND THEN A KICK-OUT TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY TAU 72. THE AI CONSENSUS AND EC-AIFS ARE THE ONLY TWO
OUTLIERS SHOWING A TRACK FURTHER NORTHWARD BUT EVEN THEY SHOW A
GRADUAL WESTWARD LOOP THROUGH TAU 72. CROSS-TRACK ENVELOPE SPREAD
AT TAU 72 IS 63NM EXCLUDING THE TWO AI MODELS NOTED ABOVE. THE JTWC
FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH TAU 72 WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. BEYOND TAU 72, SAME RELATIONSHIPS APPLY, WITH
THE AI MODELS REMAINING FAR TO THE NORTH, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF
THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE DEPICTING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY.
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BETWEEN THE GALWEM AND FNV3 ON THE NORTH AND THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ON THE SOUTH, INCREASES TO 135NM BY TAU 120.
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS MORE SIGNIFICANT, INCREASING TO 330N BETWEEN
THE ECMWF (FAST, APPROACHING THE QUEENSLAND COAST) AND TH EGRR
(SLOW, NEAR MILNE BAY) BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE JTWC
EXTENDED FORECAST IS POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN,
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MIXED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE EXACT TRACK POSITION AND THE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE COUPLED AND NON-COUPLED MODELS. THE COUPLED
MODELS DEPICT A PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24 FOLLOWED
BY BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS OF WEAKENING BEFORE MODEST REINTENSIFICATION
BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN FROM TAU 72 TO TAU 120. THE HAFS-A BOTTOMS
OUT AROUND 60 KNOTS AND THE HWRF AROUND 75 KNOTS. THE JTWC FORECAST
MOST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE ECMWF AND COAMPS-TC GUIDANCE, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-4-6 16:45

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：张怡驰、曹越男  签发：张玲  2026 年 04 月 06 日 18 时
“韦亚努”向南偏东方向移动

时  间: 6日14时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 南太平洋

命  名: “韦亚努”，VAIANU

中心位置: 南纬16.0度，东经173.3度

强度等级: 二级热带气旋

最大风力: 11级，31米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压: 960百帕

参考位置: 距离斐济苏瓦西北方向约588公里

变化过程: 过去18小时，“韦亚努”由8级加强为11级

预报结论: 预计，“韦亚努”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向南偏东方向移动，强度逐渐加强。

图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年4月6日14时00分）

“迈拉”向东南方向移动

时  间: 6日14时

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “迈拉”，MAILA

中心位置: 南纬9.9度，东经155.2度

强度等级: 三级强热带气旋

最大风力: 12级，36米/秒，相当于我国的台风级

中心气压: 968百帕

参考位置: 距离澳大利亚昆士兰州凯恩斯东北方向约1290公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“迈拉”由10级加强为12级

预报结论: 预计，“迈拉”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向东南方向移动，强度逐渐增强。

图2  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年4月6日14时00分）

莎莎 · 发表于 2026-4-6 16:52

巴布亞紐幾內亞命名表的名字 Maila

上次名字是2007年Guba

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-4-6 20:50

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-4-6 22:15 编辑

IDQ20065
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 10:48 pm EST on Monday 6 April 2026

At 10 pm AEST Monday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila (Category 3) with central
pressure 962 hPa was located near latitude 9.9 south longitude 155.4 east,
which is about 505 km west of Honiara and 910 km east of Port Moresby.

The cyclone is moving east southeast at 8 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila, 37U, is currently located in the Solomon Sea.
The steering influences are balanced and Maila is expected to be slow moving
over the Solomon Sea before moving west southwest by Thursday.

Maila is expected to remain well away from the Queensland coast during the next
few days, but confidence is increasing in Maila moving towards the Far North
Queensland coast later in the week, potentially crossing the coast on the
weekend.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5:00 am AEST Tuesday 07 April.

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1253 UTC 06/04/2026
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila
Identifier: 37U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 9.9S
Longitude: 155.4E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: east southeast (111 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (8 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots (150 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots (205 km/h)
Central Pressure: 962 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 130 nm (240 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC)       : degrees    :    nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  06/1800:  9.9S 155.7E:    025 (050):  085  (155):  957
+12:  07/0000:  9.9S 155.9E:    040 (070):  090  (165):  952
+18:  07/0600:  9.9S 156.1E:    045 (085):  085  (155):  956
+24:  07/1200:  9.8S 156.0E:    050 (090):  080  (150):  961
+36:  08/0000:  9.6S 155.7E:    055 (100):  080  (150):  961
+48:  08/1200:  9.5S 155.0E:    065 (125):  080  (150):  962
+60:  09/0000:  9.7S 154.1E:    085 (155):  075  (140):  967
+72:  09/1200: 10.1S 152.8E:    105 (195):  065  (120):  976
+96:  10/1200: 11.3S 149.6E:    135 (250):  070  (130):  973
+120: 11/1200: 11.6S 147.0E:    160 (295):  070  (130):  972
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila slow moving in the Solomon Sea.

Position is based on animated EIR imagery with an intermittent eye and an
1100UTC ASCAT pass with good confidence.

Intensity is assessed at 80 kn, based on subjective Dvorak and objective
guidance.

Dvorak analysis DT has climbed to 5.5 using an eye pattern with a B surround,
eye is LG in W surround (no adjustment). MET=5.0 based on a D 24h trend with no
adjustment. FT/CI=5.5/5.5. Available objective guidance at 1120 UTC (all
1-minute mean) includes ADT 65 kn, AiDT 74 kn, DPRINT 90 kn, DMINT 90kn (0734
UTC), MW sounders 92 kn (0319 UTC), and SATCON (0600UTC) 83 kn.

Maila remains in an environment generally favourable for further
intensification, with vertical wind shear 16 kn easterly, SSTs near 30C, and
good upper-level outflow, especially equatorward. The intensity forecast for
Maila is difficult with some guidance indicating an intense system persisting
for some days and other guidance suggesting weakening. The slow motion will
likely cause upwelling of cooler water aiding to weaken the system. The extent
of any weakening on Thursday will also depend on whether it tracks over eastern
PNG as suggested by some guidance. Current forecast is for some further
intensification in the next 12 hours and then slow weakening.

The steering pattern remains finely balanced, with a ridge to the south and
northwesterly flow to the north. The current short term motion to the east
southeast is forecast to turn to the northwest later Tuesday. By Thursday, a
strengthening mid-level ridge to the east is expected to steer Maila west
southwest. This takes it past the PNG southeastern islands that could face a
prolonged period of very hazardous winds.

There is increasing confidence in a track towards the Cape York Peninsula later
in the week. Confidence in this steering direction has increased however there
still remains considerable spread in the speed of motion with recent guidance
slowing the system down as it approaches the north Queensland coast.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/1930 UTC.

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	10 pm April 6	3	9.9S	155.4E	30
+6hr	4 am April 7	3	9.9S	155.7E	50
+12hr	10 am April 7	4	9.9S	155.9E	70
+18hr	4 pm April 7	3	9.9S	156.1E	85
+24hr	10 pm April 7	3	9.8S	156.0E	90
+36hr	10 am April 8	3	9.6S	155.7E	100
+48hr	10 pm April 8	3	9.5S	155.0E	125
+60hr	10 am April 9	3	9.7S	154.1E	155
+72hr	10 pm April 9	3	10.1S	152.8E	195

真白理可 · 发表于 2026-4-6 21:39

怎麼說呢，這孩子不是切崩就是冷崩

甚至90W發展起來就會切崩在西澳的30P

如果這孩子能進西澳的話

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-4-6 22:45

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-4-7 00:00 编辑

WTPS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 9.7S 155.5E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7S 155.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 9.7S 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 9.4S 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 9.3S 155.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 9.3S 154.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 9.8S 152.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 10.8S 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 11.5S 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 9.7S 155.6E.
06APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 712
NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061200Z IS
958 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR
007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 9.7S 155.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 712 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 02 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
COMPACT, SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM MEANDERING SLOWLY ABOUT THE NORTHERN
SOLOMON SEA. CONVECTIVE HOT TOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS, AND THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE WESTERN THROUGH NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE
CIRCULATION. PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND SHEAR, WITH INDICATIONS OF
HIGHER MID-LEVEL SHEAR, IS KEEPING THE CONVECTION FROM FULLY
WRAPPING UPSHEAR ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, OR FROM
PERSISTING THERE IF IT DOES MANAGE TO WRAP. WHILE THE EYE IN THE
EIR IS FLEETING AND TRANSIENT, IN THE LOWER LEVELS IT IS VERY
WELL-FORMED AS DEPICTED IN A 060800Z RCM-3 SAR PASS AS WELL AS A
061301Z GMI COLOR-ENHANCED 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A SOLID WESTERN EYEWALL WITH A MUCH WEAKER EASTERN
EYEWALL. THE SAR DATA REVEALED A VERY SYMMETRICAL EYE OF ABOUT 18NM
IN DIAMETER, WITH A MEAN VMAX OF 92 KNOTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION BETWEEN THE
GMI MICROWAVE EYE AND THE SAR EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW, SUPPORTED BY THE SAR
VMAX DATA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN OVERALL FAVORABLE,
HOWEVER THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS IN THE NEGATIVE COLUMN AND THE
LATEST SST AND OHC ANALYSES INDICATE COOLER WATERS ARE BEGINNING TO
REACH THE SURFACE, A LARGE INHIBITING FACTOR.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER AND SAR DATA.
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING PATTERN, WITH STRONG
WEST-NORTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW JUST SOUTH OF EQUATOR AND A DEEP LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. THE WESTERLY
GRADIENT FLOW IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS SLIGHTLY PREDOMINATE.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
ABRF: T5.5 - 102 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 65 KTS AT 061150Z
CIMSS AIDT: 75 KTS AT 061150Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 90 KTS AT 060734Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 89 KTS AT 061230Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
OTHER FACTORS: UPWELLING OF COOL OCEANIC WATERS.
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 30P (MAILA) CONTINUES TO
MEANDER SLOWLY EASTWARD, ENSCONCED IN A COMPETING STEERING PATTERN.
FOR THE MOMENT, THE WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW ALONG THE EQUATOR
APPEARS TO HAVE THE SLIGHT UPPER-HAND AND IS INFLUENCING TC 30P
EASTWARD. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN, ALLOWING TC 30P TO PERFORM A SLOW LOOP NORTH TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST. BY TAU 48, RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
AFTER PASSAGE OF TC 31P TO THE SOUTH, WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY THE STR
OVER AUSTRALIA MOVES EASTWARD WHILE BUILDING INTO THE CORAL SEA.
THESE PATTERN CHANGES WILL KICK THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. THROUGH TAU
72, THE STR TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD,
PUSHING TC 30P ONTO A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLIP
THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA, PASSING OVER THE EASTERN
APPROACHES TO THE MILNE BAY PRIOR TO TAU 96. THE SYSTEM THEN MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN CORAL SEA BY TAU 120. REGARDING INTENSITY, A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 100-105 KNOTS IS FORECAST BY TAU 12, BEFORE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS UPWELL TO THE SURFACE AND CUT OFF THE
ENERGY SOURCE FOR THE SYSTEM. A FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING PHASE BEGINS
IMMEDIATELY AFTER TAU 12, REDUCING THE SYSTEM TO 75 KNOTS OR
POTENTIALLY LOWER BY TAU 48. BY TAU 48, TC 30P WILL BE FAR ENOUGH
AWAY FROM THE UPWELLED COLD POOL TO REINTENSIFY. THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR A SECOND PEAK OF 90 KNOTS, BUT HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM GETS
DURING THIS REINTENSIFICATION PHASE DEPENDS ON HOW WEAK IT GETS
DURING THE WEAKENING PHASE. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES MILNE BAY,
DISRUPTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW THROUGH TERRAIN INTERACTIONS
WILL SEVERELY DISRUPT THE CORE AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT CROSSES
THE PENINSULA. THROUGH THE FINAL HOURS OF THE FORECAST, TC 30P IS
LIKELY TO ATTEMPT ANOTHER ROUND OF INTENSIFICATION BUT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, REDUCED OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE SHEAR WILL INHIBIT
SIGNIFICANT REINTENSIFICATION.
MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN TERMS OF
OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK SCENARIO. THROUGH TAU 48, THE
CONSENSUS PACKAGE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AI MODELS AND THE
NAVGEM, AGREE ON A EASTWARD TRACK WHICH TURNS SLOWLY BUT SHARPLY IN
A COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP. WITH THE EXCEPTIONS NOTED ABOVE, THE
REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IS VERY TIGHTLY PACKED, LENDING MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST. BY TAU 72, THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OUTLIERS BEGIN TO MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO REJOIN
THE PACK BUT ARE STILL OUTLIERS TO THE NORTH. THE REMAINDER OF THE
PACKAGE IS STILL TIGHTLY CONSTRAINED IN A 60NM WIDE ENVELOPE THAT
PRESENTING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD BEGINS TO
INCREASE BY TAU 72, WITH THE ECWMF BEING THE FASTEST MODEL AND THE
NAVGEM THE SLOWEST. BY TAU 120, CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO
ABOUT 200NM, BETWEEN THE FNV3 ON THE NORTH SIDE AND NAVGEM ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. MORE SIGNIFICANT IS THE INCREASING
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD, WHICH INCREASES TO MORE THAN 300NM BY TAU 120
WITH ECMWF CONTINUING TO OUTPACE ALL THE OTHER MODELS. THE AI
MODELS (AICN AND EC-AIFS IN PARTICULAR) ARE SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TRACKING THE SYSTEM FURTHER EQUATORWARD
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR,
AND SLIGHTLY FASTER, THAN THE CONSENSUS MEAN FROM TAU 72 TO 120,
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS,
THE COUPLED AND THE UNCOUPLED MODELS. IN THIS FORECAST, THE COUPLED
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER-HAND, AND INDICATE A FLAT INTENSITY THROUGH
TAU 12, THEN RAPID WEAKENING, BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 70-75 KNOTS BY
TAU 36 BEFORE RAPIDLY RECOVERING AND REINTENSIFYING TO A PEAK
BETWEEN 85-95 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THEREAFTER THE TWO CAMPS REJOIN AND
AGREE ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST
IS PLACED NEAR THE HAFS-A GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY AFTER TAU 24.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

复制代码

ygsj24 · 发表于 2026-4-7 04:50

IDQ20065
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 4:47 am EST on Tuesday 7 April 2026

At 4 am AEST Tuesday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila (Category 3) with central
pressure 963 hPa was located near latitude 9.8 south longitude 156.0 east,
which is about 440 km west of Honiara and 970 km east of Port Moresby.

The cyclone is moving east northeast at 9 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila, 37U, is currently located in the Solomon Sea.
The steering influences are balanced and Maila is expected to be slow moving
over the Solomon Sea before moving west southwest by Thursday.

Maila is expected to remain well away from the Queensland coast during the next
few days, but confidence is increasing in Maila moving towards the Far North
Queensland coast later in the week, potentially crossing the coast on the
weekend.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11:00 am AEST Tuesday 07 April.

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	4 am April 7	3	9.8S	156.0E	35
+6hr	10 am April 7	3	9.8S	156.2E	60
+12hr	4 pm April 7	3	9.7S	156.0E	80
+18hr	10 pm April 7	3	9.7S	155.9E	85
+24hr	4 am April 8	3	9.7S	155.9E	90
+36hr	4 pm April 8	3	9.6S	155.4E	95
+48hr	4 am April 9	3	9.5S	154.6E	125
+60hr	4 pm April 9	3	9.9S	153.5E	160
+72hr	4 am April 10	3	10.5S	152.1E	190

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1849 UTC 06/04/2026
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila
Identifier: 37U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 9.8S
Longitude: 156.0E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: east northeast (079 deg)
Speed of Movement: 5 knots (9 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots (150 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots (205 km/h)
Central Pressure: 963 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 130 nm (240 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: W1.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 07/0000: 9.8S 156.2E: 030 (060): 080 (150): 961
+12: 07/0600: 9.7S 156.0E: 040 (080): 080 (150): 961
+18: 07/1200: 9.7S 155.9E: 045 (085): 075 (140): 965
+24: 07/1800: 9.7S 155.9E: 050 (090): 075 (140): 965
+36: 08/0600: 9.6S 155.4E: 050 (095): 070 (130): 970
+48: 08/1800: 9.5S 154.6E: 065 (125): 080 (150): 962
+60: 09/0600: 9.9S 153.5E: 085 (160): 080 (150): 963
+72: 09/1800: 10.5S 152.1E: 105 (190): 080 (150): 964
+96: 10/1800: 11.4S 148.8E: 135 (255): 070 (130): 973
+120: 11/1800: 11.7S 146.5E: 170 (315): 070 (130): 972
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila remains slow moving in the Solomon Sea.
Position is based on animated EIR imagery and a recent microwave pass with
moderate confidence. Recent imagery has shown Maila no longer has the eye that
had been evident in EIR earlier.
Intensity is assessed at 80 kn, and sits between subjective Dvorak and
objective guidance.
Dvorak analysis DT has decreased to 4.5 using an embedded centre pattern.
MET=4.0 based on a D 24h trend with an adjustment to 4.5. FT/CI=4.5/5.5.
Available objective guidance at 1730 UTC (all 1-minute mean) includes ADT 65
kn, AiDT 70 kn, DPRINT 88 kn, DMINT 80kn (1517 UTC), MW sounders 93 kn (1516
UTC), and SATCON 85 kn.
Maila remains in a generally favourable environment with moderate vertical wind
shear, a moist environment and good upper-level divergence. However the
intensity forecast for Maila is difficult with some guidance indicating an
intense system persisting for some days and other guidance suggesting
weakening. The slow motion may cause upwelling of cooler waters and the
forecast slow motion of the system over these cooler waters may induce some
weakening. As Maila moves further west there is the potential for some
reintensification prior to tracking west southwest over the eastern islands of
PNG. The longer term intensity as it approaches the Queensland coast may depend
on the systems interaction with the islands of PNG.
The steering pattern remains finely balanced, with a ridge to the south and
northwesterly flow to the north. Currently Maila is moving slowly eastwards but
is forecast to turn to the northwest later Tuesday. By Thursday, a
strengthening mid-level ridge to the east is expected to steer Maila west
southwest. This takes it past the PNG southeastern islands and they could face
a prolonged period of very hazardous winds. While there is increased confidence
in a track towards the Cape York Peninsula later in the week there still
remains considerable spread in the speed of motion with recent guidance slowing
the system down as it approaches the north Queensland coast. At this stage an
impact could occur as early as late Friday or be delayed until early next week.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 07/0130 UTC.

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ygsj24 · 发表于 2026-4-7 04:50

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-4-7 06:00 编辑

WTPS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 9.9S 156.1E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 156.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 9.8S 156.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 9.5S 156.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 9.4S 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 9.4S 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 10.1S 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 11.2S 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 11.9S 146.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 9.9S 156.2E.
06APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 665
NM SOUTH OF KAPINGAMARANGI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061800Z IS 962 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

WDPS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNING NR
008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 9.9S 156.1E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 665 NM SOUTH OF KAPINGAMARANGI
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED
INNER CORE STRUCTURE, WITH AN EMBEDDED CENTER OR EYE DIMPLE
PERIODICALLY VISIBLE WITHIN AN ASYMMETRIC DISC OF DEEP CONVECTION.
THE CORE IS EXHIBITING SIGNS OF PROBABLE OCEANIC UPWELLING BENEATH
THE SLOW-MOVING STORM, WITH A 061519Z AMSR-2 MICROWAVE PASS SHOWING
ONLY HALF AN EYEWALL PRESENT, WITH THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE DEVOID OF
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AT THE TIME. COUPLED TROPICAL CYCLONE
MODELS HAFS-A AND HWRF ASSESS THAT A POOL OF WATER COOLER THAN 26
DEGREES CELSIUS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE STORM
TRACK. THERE IS ALSO LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR OF 10-15 KT PRESENT,
CONTRIBUTING TO LESS EXPANSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 90 KT BASED ON THE
DEGRADING STRUCTURE AND A SPREAD OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND
OBJECTIVE SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES, RANGING RATHER
WIDELY FROM ABOUT 65 KT TO 100 KT.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: AMSR-2 DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: EQUATORIAL WESTERLY WIND BURST AND
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER AUSTRALIA
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
ABRF: T5.5 - 102 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 86 KTS AT 061516Z
CIMSS ADT: 65 KTS AT 061730Z
CIMSS AIDT: 70 KTS AT 061730Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 88 KTS AT 061803Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 87 KTS AT 061830Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 24-28 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
OTHER FACTORS: PROBABLE UPWELLING OF COOL WATER NEAR THE VORTEX
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) IS TRICKY TO
FORECAST ACROSS MULTIPLE DIMENSIONS, AND TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE
CLOSELY RELATED. THE CYCLONE REMAINS MIRED BETWEEN AN EQUATORIAL
WESTERLY WIND BURST TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER AUSTRALIA. THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES OF
THESE FEATURES IS CAUSING MAILA TO MEANDER SLOWLY, WHICH IS
CREATING OCEANIC UPWELLING AND IMPACTING THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
COUPLED MODELS HAFS-A AND HWRF SUGGEST THAT MAILA WILL REMAIN NEAR
ITS OWN COLD WAKE AS IT EVENTUALLY TURNS BACK WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS IS ANTICIPATED TO CAUSE SOME FURTHER
WEAKENING SHORT-TERM, BUT WITHOUT DIRECT OCEAN OBSERVATIONS TO MAP
OUT THE COLD WAKE BENEATH THE STORM, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY TREND. A WESTWARD TRACK
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
AUSTRALIA BUILDS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD, BUT MODELS DISAGREE
SUBSTANTIALLY ON TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THIS MOTION. THE UKMET AND
AI-BASED MODELS ARE MUCH SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, GFS, AND HAFS-A.
THIS COMPOUNDS INTO HIGHER THAN AVERAGE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST CURRENTLY SITS BETWEEN THE
FAST AND SLOW GROUPS, TAKING 30P NEAR THE TIP OF THE PAPUAN
PENINSULA BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER PIVOT POINT
IN THE STORM'S LIFECYCLE AS IT TRACKS OVER OR NEAR THE ABRUPT
TERRAIN OF THE OWEN STANLEY MOUNTAIN RANGE. EVEN AN OFFSHORE TRACK
NEAR THESE MOUNTAINS WOULD LIKELY SEVERELY DISRUPT THE STORM'S
INNER CORE, BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DEGREE OF DISRUPTION. SOME
MODELS LIKE THE GFS AND HAFS-A DEPICT NEAR-TOTAL COLLAPSE OF 30P
DOWNSTREAM OF THE PAPUAN PENINSULA, WHILE OTHERS LIKE ECMWF SHOW A
MODERATE STEP DOWN IN INTENSITY. AN INCREASE OF EASTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR IN SOME MODELS ALSO CONTRIBUTES TO THE WEAKENING TREND. THE
JTWC FORECAST SHOWS ABRUPT WEAKENING TO 65 KT BETWEEN 72 AND 96
HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE GIVEN THE SENSITIVITY
TO THE PRECISE TRACK RELATIVE TO THE TERRAIN. REGARDLESS, MOST
MODELS AGREE THAT MAILA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA THROUGH 120 HOURS.
MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BETWEEN TWO GROUPINGS OF FAST AND SLOW MODEL
PROJECTIONS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS STRONGLY TOWARD THE
COUPLED MODELS HAFS-A AND HWRF SHORT-TERM DUE TO THEIR AWARENESS OF
OCEANIC UPWELLING OCCURRING BENEATH THE VORTEX, THEN CLOSE TO THE
BROADER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER 48 HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

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pocketbox · 发表于 2026-4-7 08:50

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-4-7 09:35 编辑

IDQ20065
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 10:45 am EST on Tuesday 7 April 2026

At 10 am AEST Tuesday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila (Category 3) with central
pressure 962 hPa was located near latitude 10.0 south longitude 156.3 east,
which is about 410 km west of Honiara and 1010 km east of Port Moresby.

The cyclone is moving southeast at 7 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila, 37U, is currently located in the Solomon Sea.
The steering influences are balanced and Maila is expected to be slow moving
over the Solomon Sea before moving west southwest by Thursday.

Maila is expected to remain well away from the Queensland coast during the next
few days, but from late week Maila is forecast to be moving towards the Far
North Queensland coast, potentially crossing the coast on the weekend or early
next week.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5:00 pm AEST Tuesday 07 April.

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0128 UTC 07/04/2026
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila
Identifier: 37U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 10.0S
Longitude: 156.3E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: southeast (124 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots (150 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots (205 km/h)
Central Pressure: 962 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS STT

0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 190 nm (350 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC)       : degrees    :    nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  07/0600:  9.9S 156.3E:    025 (050):  080  (150):  961
+12:  07/1200:  9.8S 156.3E:    035 (070):  080  (150):  961
+18:  07/1800:  9.7S 156.2E:    045 (085):  080  (150):  961
+24:  08/0000:  9.6S 155.9E:    050 (090):  080  (150):  962
+36:  08/1200:  9.5S 155.3E:    060 (110):  080  (150):  962
+48:  09/0000:  9.6S 154.3E:    070 (130):  080  (150):  963
+60:  09/1200: 10.0S 153.1E:    090 (165):  080  (150):  964
+72:  10/0000: 10.8S 151.4E:    090 (170):  070  (130):  973
+96:  11/0000: 11.8S 147.9E:    130 (240):  070  (130):  973
+120: 12/0000: 12.0S 145.4E:    155 (290):  065  (120):  976
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila remains slow moving in the Solomon Sea.

Position is based on animated visible imagery with good confidence. Recent
imagery has shown an eye reemerging. SSMIS microwave imagery at 1850 UTC
captured the eastern side of the eye. Earlier SAR at 1906 UTC and recent ASCAT
at 2237 UTC have given good guidance of the gale and storm force wind structure.

Intensity is assessed at 80 kn, and is in line with Dvorak and generally in
line with recent objective aids as well as the earlier SAR pass.

Dvorak analysis, a OW eye with LG surrounds and eye adjustment yields a 3 hour
average DT of 5.0. MET=5.5 based on a D 24h trend with an adjustment to 5.0.
FT/CI=5.0/5.0. Available objective guidance at 0000 UTC (all 1-minute mean)
includes ADT 63 kn, AiDT 65 kn, DPRINT 94 kn, DMINT 88kn (1803 UTC), and SATCON
85 kn (1730).

Maila lies in a generally favourable environment with low to moderate vertical
wind shear (about 15 knots), a moist environment and good upper-level
divergence. However the intensity forecast for Maila is difficult with some
guidance indicating an intense system persisting for some days and other
guidance suggesting weakening. The slow motion may cause upwelling of cooler
waters and the forecast slow motion of the system over these cooler waters may
induce some weakening. As Maila moves further west there is the potential for
some reintensification prior to tracking west southwest over southeastern PNG.
The short term forecast maintains a similar intensity, however, some
fluctuations are anticipated. The longer term intensity as it approaches the
Queensland coast may depend on the systems interaction with PNG, as well as how
quickly Maila moves west which leads to some variations in guidance in
potential for Maila to be influenced by some vertical wind shear.

The steering pattern is in balance, though northwesterly flow to the north is
currently having the greatest influence and Maila has been moving slowly
eastwards. This is expected to shift during today as a new mid-level ridge
builds to the southwest. Maila is expected to slow while the pattern changes,
and then the ridge becomes the dominant steering influence moving Maila to the
northwest from later today. In the coming days the mid-level ridge is forecast
to extend eastwards, to the south and southeast of Maila, and by Thursday is
expected to steer Maila west southwest. This takes Maila past southeastern PNG,
and they could face a prolonged period of very hazardous winds.

After passing PNG, Maila is expected to continue moving generally west, and
towards the Cape York Peninsula, however, there is considerable spread in the
speed of motion and an impact could occur as early as Friday night or be
delayed until early next week.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 07/0730 UTC.

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	10 am April 7	3	10.0S	156.3E	30
+6hr	4 pm April 7	3	9.9S	156.3E	50
+12hr	10 pm April 7	3	9.8S	156.3E	70
+18hr	4 am April 8	3	9.7S	156.2E	85
+24hr	10 am April 8	3	9.6S	155.9E	90
+36hr	10 pm April 8	3	9.5S	155.3E	110
+48hr	10 am April 9	3	9.6S	154.3E	130
+60hr	10 pm April 9	3	10.0S	153.1E	165
+72hr	10 am April 10	3	10.8S	151.4E	170

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[值得关注] 所罗门海五级强热带气旋“迈拉”(37U/30P.Maila) - 巴新十八年来首个命名热带气旋，在所罗门海回旋 - BoM:115KT JTWC:125KT

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