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本帖最后由 iam最小值 于 2026-4-6 01:32 编辑
WTIO30 FMEE 051305
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/13/20252026
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 (INDUSA)
2.A POSITION 2026/04/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.7 S / 71.4 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 21 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 95 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/04/06 00 UTC: 33.8 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 240 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 165 SW: 75 NW: 0
24H: 2026/04/06 12 UTC: 37.5 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SW: 150 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 75 NW: 0
36H: 2026/04/07 00 UTC: 41.4 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 220
48H: 2026/04/07 12 UTC: 43.6 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=3.0 CI=3.5
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
DETERIORATE, BECOMING INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRICAL DUE TO STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. THE 0856Z GCOM-W SWATH SHOWS THAT THE
UPPER-LEVEL CENTER IS SHIFTED APPROXIMATELY 40 MN SOUTHEAST OF THE
LOWER-LEVEL CENTER. FURTHERMORE, THE SATELLITE ANIMATION SUGGESTS THE
ONSET OF BAROCLINIC FRONTOGENESIS. WE CAN THEREFORE ESTIMATE THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, JUSTIFYING A
CLASSIFICATION AS A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IN THE ABSENCE OF
RECENT SCATTEROMETRIC SWATHS, INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED BASED ON A
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS WITH MAX WIND SPEEDS OF 50 KT.
REGARDING THE TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
RAPIDLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD STEERED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN AND A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK IS LOW.
REGARDING THE INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WHILE WEAKENING FURTHER AS IT MOVES OVER
INCREASINGLY COLDER WATERS IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.
LAST BULLETIN ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION REGARDS THIS SYSTEM WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO EVACUATE TOWARD MIDDLE LATITUDES WHILE WEAKENING AND
LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. |
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楼主: 大水台6
发表于 2026-4-5 17:40
