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ABPW10 PGTW 070000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/070000Z-070600ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.4N 140.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0N 140.7E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO
29C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS IT
TRACKS POLEWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE DETERMINISTIC MODEL IN TERMS OF DEVELOPMENT, INDICATING
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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楼主: yhh
发表于 2026-3-6 14:43
发表于 2026-3-6 23:08
