留尼汪以西强热带风暴第9号“菲蒂娅”(19S.Fytia) - 海峡内快速增强，东行穿过马达加斯加 - MFR:85KT JTWC:100KT

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析打破德法限制，升至T5.0

TPXS10 PGTW 301503
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA)
B. 30/1430Z
C. 15.31S
D. 43.45E
E. ONE/MET9
F. T5.0/5.0/D3.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG YIELDS AN E#
AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.0. MET YIELDS 3.5 AND PT YIELDS
4.0. DBO DT. CONSTRAINTS BROKEN DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   30/1039Z  15.52S  42.85E  ATMS
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析打破德法限制，升至T5.5，评价95KT

19S FYTIA 260130 1800 15.5S 43.9E SHEM 95 963

TPXS10 PGTW 301818
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA)
B. 30/1730Z
C. 15.49S
D. 43.85E
E. ONE/MET9
F. T5.5/5.5/D3.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG YIELDS
AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT OF 5.5.
MET YIELDS 4.0. PT YIELDS 5.0. DBO DT. BROKE CONSTRAINTS DUE TO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   30/1502Z  15.48S  43.53E  GPMI
   TIMMERMAN

Ragasa

WTIO30 FMEE 301844
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/9/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (FYTIA)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/30 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 44.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/31 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/31 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 95

36H: 2026/02/01 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2026/02/01 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95

60H: 2026/02/02 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2026/02/02 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/03 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 55.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85

120H: 2026/02/04 18 UTC: 26.5 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A SOLID EYE
CONFIGURATION. THE 1516Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SOLID CONVECTIVE
RING AROUND THE EYE. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE EYE ALLOWS
THE T NUMBER TO BE RAISED TO 5.0, CORRESPONDING TO MAXIMUM WINDS OF 80
KT. THIS ESTIMATE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DMINT AND DPRINT OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH-ALTITUDE RIDGE IS
GENERATING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT IS STEERING THE SYSTEM
SOUTHEASTWARD. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING IN THE PROVINCE OF MAHAJANGA. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, MAINTAINING ITS
COURSE UNTIL SUNDAY IN THE SOUTH OF THE PROVINCE OF TOAMASINA. AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE IN A SOUTHEASTERN
DIRECTION AND PASS CLOSE TO THE MASCARENE ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM'S TRACK REMAINS MODERATE AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, GIVEN THE DISPERSION OF THE AVAILABLE
MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAVOURABLE THROUGHOUT THE TRANSIT OVER THE SEA, WITH WARM
WATERS, MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, DOUBLE EVACUATION
CHANNELS AND LOW SHEAR. THIS LEADS TO AN IMPROVEMENT IN LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY AND ALLOWS FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT MAKES
LANDFALL IN MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM COULD EVEN APPROACH THE STAGE OF
AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS
IT MOVES OVERLAND, AND ITS POTENTIAL FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN
MADAGASCAR AND THE MASCAREIGNES REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
STAGE. ALMOST ALL AVAILABLE MODELS PREDICT REINTENSIFICATION AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK TO THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM,
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING IMPACTED BY INCREASED SHEAR AND
DRY AIR INTRUSIONS.

IMPACT ON INHABITED AREAS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS
MADAGASCAR (MAHAJANGA PROVINCE):
- LANDING IN MAHAJANGA PROVINCE NEAR SAINT-ANDRE CAPE DURING NEXT
NIGHT.
- GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE EVENING AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT THE
TIME OF LANDING.
- THE HEAVY RAIN ALREADY IN PROGRESS IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITH
200-300 MM IN 24 HOURS, LOCALLY MORE, ESPECIALLY DURING LANDING TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE TRACK. TOTAL OF 100-200 MM IN 24 HOURS
ALONG THE TRACK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVERLAND ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
- SEA BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH FROM TONIGHT.
- SURGE EXPECTED BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3.5 METRES IN THE LANDING AREA TODAY.

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCES OF ANTANANARIVO, TOAMASINA AND
FIANARANTSOA):
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK. TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF
APPROXIMATELY 100MM IN 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVERLAND ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

Ragasa

1503z GPM Microwave



1848z MetOp-B ASCAT

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析降至T5.0/5.5

TPXS10 PGTW 302113
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA)
B. 30/2030Z
C. 15.65S
D. 44.37E
E. ONE/MET9
F. T5.0/5.5/D2.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG YIELDS
AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.0. MET YIELDS 4.0. PT YIELDS
5.0. DBO DT. INTENSITY ESTIMATE MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO
PROXIMITY TO LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 310052
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/9/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (FYTIA)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/31 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 44.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/31 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 0

24H: 2026/02/01 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 100

36H: 2026/02/01 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 85

48H: 2026/02/02 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2026/02/02 12 UTC: 22.3 S / 53.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2026/02/03 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 195 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/04 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 55

120H: 2026/02/05 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS EYE CONFIGURATION.
THE PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE FROM 1846Z DID NOT ALLOW FOR THE MEASUREMENT
OF THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE EYE WALL. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF
THE EYE MAINTAINS THE T NUMBER AT 5.0 A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM
MAKES LANDFALL IN MADAGASCAR. IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DPRINT OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS, WHICH MAINTAINED A STABLE INTENSITY, AND GIVEN THE IMMEDIATE
PROXIMITY OF LAND THAT HAS BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM, THE
MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED BY THE CMRS ARE MAINTAINED AT 80KT.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH-ALTITUDE BACKBONE
IS GENERATING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT IS DRIVING THE SYSTEM'S TRACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL IN THE
PROVINCE OF MAHAJANGA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE EAST
COAST OF MADAGASCAR, MAINTAINING ITS COURSE UNTIL SUNDAY IN THE SOUTH
OF THE PROVINCE OF TOAMASINA. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE IN A SOUTHEASTERN DIRECTION AND PASS CLOSE TO THE
MASCARENES IN THE SOUTHWEST. MOST MODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO, SO
CONFIDENCE IN IT IS NOW RELATIVELY HIGH.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN MADAGASCAR, THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES OVERLAND. ITS POTENTIAL
FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN MADAGASCAR AND THE MASCAREIGNES
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS STAGE. IT WILL BENEFIT FROM GOOD OCEANIC
POTENTIAL WITH WARM WATERS AROUND 28°C, BUT THE NORTHWEST VERTICAL
SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BE UNFAVORABLE. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS PREDICT
REINTENSIFICATION AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK TO THE STAGE OF A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING IMPACTED BY
INCREASED SHEAR AND INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR.

IMPACT ON POPULATED AREAS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS
MADAGASCAR (MAHAJANGA PROVINCE):
- LANDING ON THE PROVINCE OF MAHAJANGA NEAR CAP SAINT-ANDRE IN
PROGRESS.
- HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT THE TIME OF LANDING AND FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTERWARDS.
- HEAVY RAIN CURRENTLY FALLING: 200-300 MM IN 24 HOURS, LOCALLY MORE,
NEAR THE LANDING ZONE. TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 100-200 MM IN 24 HOURS
ALONG THE TRAJECTORY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVERLAND ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
- VERY HEAVY TO HEAVY SEA UNTIL THE END OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
- SURGE EXPECTED BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3.5M IN THE LANDING AREA.

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCES OF ANTANANARIVO, TOAMASINA, AND
FIANARANTSOA):
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRAJECTORY. ACCUMULATION OF
APPROXIMATELY 100MM IN 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVERLAND ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

Atsani艾莎尼

19S FYTIA 260131 0000 16.0S 44.8E SHEM 100 962

8点的德法
TPXS10 PGTW 310011
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA)
B. 30/2330Z
C. 15.84S
D. 44.76E
E. ONE/MET9
F. T5.5/5.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR LG, TO YIELD A DT
OF 5.5. MET YIELDS 4.5. PT YIELDS 5.0. DBO DT. INTENSITY ESTIMATE
MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
TIMMERMAN

觀雲趣

AMSR2

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR 004   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   310000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 44.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 44.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z --- 17.2S 46.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 18.8S 48.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 20.3S 50.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 21.5S 51.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 23.1S 54.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 24.3S 55.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 26.3S 57.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 45.2E.
31JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233
NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 310000Z IS 962 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
311500Z AND 010300Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 310300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR
   
4. 004//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 16.0S 44.8E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 233 NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO,
    
13. MADAGASCAR
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FYTIA) HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
    
19. STRUCTURALLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE
    
20. HAS CLEARED AND TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE EYE HAVE WARMED AS DEPICTED
    
21. VIA ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE EASTERN
    
22. SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF DEGRADATION DUE TO
    
23. INTERACTION WITH TOPOGRAPHICAL FEATURES. THOUGH THERE IS SOME TILT
    
24. TO THE STRUCTURE, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS
    
25. WELL ALIGNED WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
    
26. PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY OF THE
    
27. WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS
    
28. ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AND
    
29. AGENCY FIXES LISTED BELOW.
    
30. 
    
31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 1848Z METOP-B SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
32. 
    
33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED
    
34. TO THE NORTH
    
35. 
    
36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
37.    PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
38.    CIMSS SATCON: 89 KTS AT 310000Z
    
39.    CIMSS ADT: 102 KTS AT 310000Z
    
40.    CIMSS AIDT: 102 KTS AT 310000Z
    
41.    CIMSS D-MINT: 87 KTS AT 302210Z
    
42.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 90 KTS AT 310000Z
    
43. 
    
44. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
45.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
46.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
47.    OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
    
48.    OTHER FACTORS: LANDFALL
    
49. 
    
50. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
51.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
52.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
53.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
54. 
    
55. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
56. 
    
57. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED SINCE
    
58. LAST FORECAST AND PRIOR TO LANDFALL
    
59. 
    
60. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC FYTIA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
    
61. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND IS
    
62. EXPECTED TO SOON MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
    
63. MADAGASCAR. WHILE IT WILL RETAIN SOME OF ITS STRUCTURE WHILE
    
64. TRACKING INLAND, A QUICKER WEAKENING TREND WILL INITIATE AS HIGHER
    
65. TOPOGRAPHY CHIPS AWAY AT THE CORE. THIS WILL BRING THE INTENSITY OF
    
66. THE STORM DOWN TO 50 KTS AT TAU 12 AND FURTHER TO 35 KTS AT TAU 24.
    
67. TC FYTIA WILL THEN RE-EMERGE AS A WEAKENED CIRCULATION ALONG THE
    
68. EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR AND VENTURE OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN
    
69. INDIAN OCEAN. THE RE-EMERGENCE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE START OF A
    
70. HANDOFF IN STEERING MECHANISM BETWEEN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO
    
71. THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN.
    
72. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 C TO 30 C) WILL FACILITATE A
    
73. STRENGTHENING TREND ALONG WITH GOOD OUTFLOW, BUT THIS SHORT LIVED
    
74. TREND WILL BE HINDERED BY INCREASING SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
    
75. THE FORECAST TRACK PUTS THE CIRCULATION ON A HEAD ON COURSE TOWARDS
    
76. THE SUBTROPICAL JET RESULTING IN A COMPLETED SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION
    
77. BY TAU 120.
    
78. 
    
79. MODEL DISCUSSION: CROSS TRACK SPREAD AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
    
80. UNDER 50 NM FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, EXCLUDING
    
81. INTERPOLATIONS OF NAVGEM. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE
    
82. TO THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS BUT FAVORS TIMING EXCLUDING NAVGEM
    
83. INFLUENCE AND IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
    
84. SPREAD IS CLOSE TO 100 KTS, WITH MODELS STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE
    
85. TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION AND THE ASSOCIATED RATE OF WEAKENING. THE
    
86. JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY IS PLACED SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MULTI MODEL
    
87. CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN REFLECTS VALUES IN LINE
    
88. WITH THE CONSENSUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
    
89. FORECAST INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON
    
90. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREEING ON WEAKENING AND
    
91. RE-STRENGTHENING TRENDS, BUT CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED
    
92. WITH POST-LANDFALL INTENSIFICATION INITIAL CONDITIONS.
    
93. 
    
94. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
95.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
96.    TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
    
97.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
98.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    
99. NNNN

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pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：钟晖子、张增海  签发：王海平  2026 年 01 月 31 日 10 时
“菲蒂娅”登陆马达加斯加

时  间: 1月31日08时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “菲蒂娅”，FYTIA

中心位置: 南纬16度，东经44.9度

强度等级: 强热带气旋风暴

最大风力: 16级，51米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级

中心气压: 968百帕

参考位置: 距离塔那那利佛西北向约430公里

变化过程: “菲蒂娅”过去24小时，强度由8级增强至16级

预报结论: “菲蒂娅”将以每小时5～10公里左右的速度向东偏南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱，并于2月1日再次入海并继续向东南方向移动。受其影响，马达加斯加西部沿海及内陆地区将有11～13级风，阵风可达14～15级，“菲蒂娅”将给马达加斯加西北部和中东部带来强降水影响。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年1月31日08时00分）