西澳以北二级热带气旋“卢安娜”(16U/17S.Luana) - 24日登陆西澳北部

红豆棒冰冰

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2026-1-23 21:03
JTWC 12Z分析维持T2.5

JTWC稍早前重新分析，修改了定位

TPXS12 PGTW 231415
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NW OF BROOME)
B. 23/1131Z
C. 14.78S
D. 120.45E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 70A/PBO ANMTN/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.
RE-EVALUATED FOR POSITION AFTER ASCT PASS WAS AVAILABLE.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   23/1207Z  15.23S  120.32E  GPMI
   PETERSEN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析维持T2.5

TPXS12 PGTW 231502
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NW OF BROOME)
B. 23/1430Z
C. 15.40S
D. 120.63E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   23/1207Z  15.23S  120.32E  GPMI
   PETERSEN

pocketbox

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued at 11:53 pm WST on Friday 23 January 2026

Headline:
Tropical Low 16U to develop into a tropical cyclone early Saturday and develop further before impacting the northwest Kimberley Coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Broome to northeast of Kuri Bay, including Derby and adjacent inland areas.

Watch Zone
idyadanga to Broome and adjacent inland area.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low 16U at 11:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 15.6 degrees South 120.7 degrees East, estimated to be 315 kilometres north northwest of Broome and 255 kilometres west northwest of Cape Leveque.

Movement: southeast at 15 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 16U is expected to soon reach tropical cyclone intensity and is forecast to be a category 2 system prior to making landfall on the northwest Kimberley coast during Saturday. The most likely crossing location is between north of Broome to Cockatoo Island.

Once 16U has crossed the coast it is expected to gradually weaken and be below tropical cyclone strength during Sunday morning inland from Derby.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/h may develop near the system centre between Beagle Bay and Cockatoo Island during Saturday as the system approaches and moves over the coast.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are possible between Beagle Bay and Kuri Bay from early Saturday morning. Gales may extend south to Derby and towards Broome during Saturday and to adjacent inland areas overnight Saturday night. If the system takes a track further west, gales may extend from Broome to Bidyadanga later Saturday.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible for the northwest Kimberley district, including the coast and adjacent inland areas during Saturday.

Coastal residents within King Sound are specifically warned of the potential for a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone passes over the Sound. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be higher than normal between Beagle Bay and Kuri Bay on Saturday and LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas as the system crosses the coast.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Saturday 24 January.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	11 pm January 23	tropical low	15.6S	120.7E	55
+6hr	5 am January 24	1	16.1S	121.8E	80
+12hr	11 am January 24	2	16.5S	122.6E	95
+18hr	5 pm January 24	2	17.0S	123.2E	90
+24hr	11 pm January 24	1	17.4S	123.7E	90
+36hr	11 am January 25	tropical low	18.1S	123.9E	115
+48hr	11 pm January 25	tropical low	19.1S	123.9E	130
+60hr	11 am January 26	tropical low	20.7S	123.7E	165
+72hr	11 pm January 26	tropical low	22.5S	124.0E	180

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析升至T3.0

TPXS12 PGTW 231816
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NW OF BROOME)
B. 23/1730Z
C. 15.87S
D. 121.00E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .70 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 3.0. PT YIELDS 3.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   23/1244Z  15.07S  120.32E  MMHS
   23/1322Z  15.15S  120.38E  MMHS
   HUYNH

ygsj24

IDW24100
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued at 2:55 am WST on Saturday 24 January 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Luana has developed and will intensify further before
impacting the northwest Kimberley Coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Broome to northeast of Kuri Bay, including Derby and adjacent
inland areas.

Watch zone: Bidyadanga to Broome and adjacent inland area.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Luana 16U at 2:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 15.8 degrees South 121.2 degrees East,
estimated to be 265 kilometres north northwest of Broome and 195 kilometres
west northwest of Cape Leveque.
Movement: east southeast at 18 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Luana has formed and is forecast to intensify to be a category
2 system prior to making landfall on the northwest Kimberley coast during
Saturday. The most likely crossing location is between north of Broome to
Cockatoo Island.

After landfall over the Dampier Peninsula, Luana may move back over the waters
of King Sound and is forecast to maintain category 2 intensity until subsequent
landfall near Derby. It will weaken and be below tropical cyclone strength
during Sunday morning after moving inland from Derby.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/h may develop near the system centre between
Beagle Bay and Cockatoo Island during Saturday as the system approaches and
moves over the coast.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are possible between Beagle Bay and
Kuri Bay from early this morning. Gales may extend south to Derby and towards
Broome during Saturday and to adjacent inland areas overnight Saturday night.
If the system takes a track further west, gales may extend from Broome to
Bidyadanga later Saturday.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible for the northwest
Kimberley district, including the coast and adjacent inland areas during
Saturday.

Coastal residents within King Sound are specifically warned of the potential
for a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone passes over the Sound. Tides are
likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES
and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be higher than normal between Beagle Bay and Kuri Bay on Saturday
and LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas as the
system crosses the coast.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts
and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am AWST Saturday 24 January.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling  13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 am January 24	1	15.8S	121.2E	45
+6hr	8 am January 24	2	16.3S	122.1E	75
+12hr	2 pm January 24	2	16.7S	122.9E	95
+18hr	8 pm January 24	2	17.2S	123.4E	90
+24hr	2 am January 25	1	17.5S	123.8E	90
+36hr	2 pm January 25	tropical low	18.3S	123.9E	115
+48hr	2 am January 26	tropical low	19.5S	123.9E	130
+60hr	2 pm January 26	tropical low	21.1S	123.7E	160
+72hr	2 am January 27	tropical low	22.9S	124.1E	180

1. AXAU01 APRF 231920
   
2. IDW27600
   
3. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
   
4. ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
   
5. AT: 1920 UTC 23/01/2026
   
6. NAME: TROPICAL CYCLONE LUANA
   
7. IDENTIFIER: 16U
   
8. DATA AT: 1800 UTC
   
9. LATITUDE: 15.8S
   
10. LONGITUDE: 121.2E
    
11. LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 25NM (45 KM)
    
12. MOVEMENT TOWARDS: EAST SOUTHEAST (121 DEG)
    
13. SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 10 KNOTS (18 KM/H)
    
14. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 40 KNOTS (75 KM/H)
    
15. MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 55 KNOTS (100 KM/H)
    
16. CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
    
17. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 80 NM (150 KM)
    
18. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 50 NM (95 KM)
    
19. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 50 NM (95 KM)
    
20. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 80 NM (150 KM)
    
21. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
    
22. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
    
23. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
    
24. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
    
25. RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:   NM (  KM)
    
26. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS: 25 NM (45 KM)
    
27. DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D1.0/06HRS
    
28. PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1003 HPA
    
29. RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 140 NM (260 KM)
    
30. FORECAST DATA
    
31. DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
    
32. (UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
    
33. +06:  24/0000: 16.3S 122.1E:     040 (075):  050  (095):  987
    
34. +12:  24/0600: 16.7S 122.9E:     050 (095):  060  (110):  980
    
35. +18:  24/1200: 17.2S 123.4E:     050 (090):  055  (100):  983
    
36. +24:  24/1800: 17.5S 123.8E:     050 (090):  040  (075):  992
    
37. +36:  25/0600: 18.3S 123.9E:     060 (115):  030  (055):  998
    
38. +48:  25/1800: 19.5S 123.9E:     070 (130):  030  (055):  998
    
39. +60:  26/0600: 21.1S 123.7E:     085 (160):  025  (045): 1001
    
40. +72:  26/1800: 22.9S 124.1E:     095 (180):  020  (035): 1004
    
41. +96:  27/1800:             :              :            :
    
42. +120: 28/1800:             :              :            :
    
43. REMARKS:
    
44. TROPICAL CYCLONE LUANA HAS DEVELOPED AFTER SHOWING PERSISTENT DEVELOPMENT OF
    
45. ORGANISED, DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTRE WITH GREATLY IMPROVED CURVATURE. IT
    
46. WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL ON THE NORTHWEST KIMBERLEY
    
47. COAST DURING SATURDAY.
    
48. 
    
49. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
    
50. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE VERY EDGE OF RADAR COVERAGE WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
    
51. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN IMPROVEMENT IN THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
    
52. CENTRE WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT CURVATURE AND WRAP OF THE BANDING FEATURES INTO
    
53. THE SYSTEM.
    
54. 
    
55. INTENSITY SET AT 40KN, BASED ON DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE AIDS.
    
56. 
    
57. DVORAK ANALYSIS SHOWS A CURVED BAND OF 0.8-1.0 YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. THE MET IS
    
58. 3.5 WITH A 24 HOUR TREND OF D+, NO ADJUSTMENT MADE TO PT, WITH FT/CI AT 3.5.
    
59. OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE AT 1800 UTC WAS (1 MIN MEAN) ADT 51 KN, AIDT 43 KN AND
    
60. DPRINT 33KN, DMINT 34 KN, SATCON 54 KN.
    
61. 
    
62. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
    
63. ARE AROUND 29 - 30  C, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW AND THE SYSTEM IS
    
64. EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND ASSOCIATED
    
65. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS CURRENTLY GOOD, AS SHOWN BY THE CIRRUS FANNING TO THE WEST.
    
66. THE UPPER OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FURTHER DURING SATURDAY AS AN
    
67. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WESTERN AUSTRALIA.
    
68. 
    
69. A SMALL AMOUNT OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE LUANA MAY TAKE
    
70. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THE WEST OF THE DAMPIER PENINSULA, THIS MEANS IT
    
71. WOULD REMAIN OVER WATER FOR LONGER AND COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP INTO A SEVERE
    
72. TROPICAL CYCLONE (CATEGORY 3). THIS IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY AND CAN MOST LIKELY
    
73. BE RULED OUT WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS.
    
74. 
    
75. MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES TROPICAL CYCLONE LUANA WILL BE STEERED
    
76. GENERALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST BY A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
    
77. LOW-LEVEL MONSOON FLOW AND THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE MOST LIKELY
    
78. SCENARIO IS A CROSSING BETWEEN BROOME AND COCKATOO ISLAND AROUND 06UTC
    
79. SATURDAY, WITH ENSEMBLE VARIATIONS ABOUT 6 HOURS EITHER SIDE. ONCE LUANA MOVES
    
80. INLAND IT WILL WEAKEN BELOW CYCLONE STRENGTH DURING SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN
    
81. MOVE SOUTHWARDS OVER INLAND WA.
    
82. 
    
83. COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
    
84. ==
    
85. THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 24/0130 UTC.=

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ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUANA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUANA) WARNING NR 004   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z --- NEAR 16.0S 121.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 121.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 17.1S 122.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 18.1S 123.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 19.1S 123.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 121.7E.23JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S
(LUANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 123 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME,
AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231800Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 232100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUANA)
   
4. WARNING NR 004//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 16.0S 121.4E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 123 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME,
    
13. AUSTRALIA
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (LUANA) IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING RAPID
    
19. INTENSIFICATION (RI), JUST OFFSHORE OF THE DAMPIER PENINSULA.
    
20. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS VORTICAL
    
21. HOT TOWERS (VHT) ORGANIZING AROUND A COMPACT INNER CORE. A 231707Z
    
22. AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE
    
23. FEATURE, ALTHOUGH CORRELATION WITH COINCIDENT RADAR IMAGERY FROM
    
24. BROOME SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE TILTED OR MULTI-VORTEX CONFIGURATION, WITH
    
25. THE MID-LEVEL ROTATION DISPLACED WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
    
26. CENTER. HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODEL FIELDS FROM HAFS-A SUPPORT
    
27. SUCH A STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
    
28. CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE MICROWAVE AND RADAR IMAGERY. THE
    
29. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
    
30. ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW, WHICH
    
31. LIKELY UNDERESTIMATE THE CURRENT MAGNITUDE DUE TO THE ONGOING RI
    
32. PHASE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT,
    
33. CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), VERY WARM SSTS AND
    
34. MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
    
35. 
    
36. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
37. 
    
38. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A NEAR
    
39. EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER).
    
40. 
    
41. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
42.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
43.    APRF: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
44.    CIMSS SATCON: 54 KTS AT 231717Z
    
45.    CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 231730Z
    
46.    CIMSS AIDT: 43 KTS AT 231730Z
    
47.    CIMSS D-MINT: 34 KTS AT 231717Z
    
48.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 33 KTS AT 231800Z
    
49. 
    
50. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
51.    VWS: 0-5 KTS
    
52.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
53.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
54.    OTHER FACTORS: PROXIMITY TO LAND.
    
55. 
    
56. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
57.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
58.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
59.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
60. 
    
61. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
62. 
    
63. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
64. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
65. 
    
66. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 17S (LUANA) IS FORECAST TO TRACK
    
67. SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NER
    
68. POSITIONED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
    
69. LANDFALL ALONG THE DAMPIER PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN
    
70. THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INLAND TO THE
    
71. EAST OF BROOME. AFTER TAU 24, STEERING INFLUENCE TRANSITIONS TO A
    
72. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA, RECURVING THE
    
73. REMNANTS OF TC 17S SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT SANDY DESERT. DURING
    
74. THE LIMITING DURATION REMAINING OVER WATER, TC 17S WILL TRAVERSE VERY
    
75. WARM (30-31C) WATERS OFFSHORE THE DAMPIER PENINSULA, SUSTAINING
    
76. INTENSIFICATION UNTIL COASTAL INTERFACE. THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST
    
77. CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS COINCIDENT WITH LANDFALL;
    
78. HOWEVER, STATISTICAL PROBABILITY SUGGESTS A PEAK CLOSER TO 60-65
    
79. KNOTS, SHOULD THE TRACK DEFLECT FURTHER SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED鈥擜 TREND
    
80. INDICATED BY RECENT RADAR IMAGERY. FOLLOWING LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL
    
81. DECAY RAPIDLY DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND REDUCED MOISTURE FLUX,
    
82. DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36.
    
83. 
    
84. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) TRACK GUIDANCE IS
    
85. IN STRONG AGREEMENT, VALIDATING A SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY WITH
    
86. LANDFALL WITHIN 12 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A POLEWARD TURN BY THE END OF
    
87. THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS ALIGNED WITH THE
    
88. MULTI-MODEL AND AI CONSENSUS MEANS, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INDICATE A
    
89. SOUTHERN DEVIATION OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS, WHICH MAY REPRESENT EITHER
    
90. A TROCHOIDAL OSCILLATION OR A TRACK SHIFT. IF THE MORE SOUTHWARD
    
91. TRAJECTORY PERSISTS, THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER WATER LONGER AND THE
    
92. LANDFALL POSITION WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO BROOME, THOUGH AT THIS POINT IN
    
93. TIME THIS IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD
    
94. AGREEMENT, WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATING INTENSIFICATION
    
95. THROUGH TAU 12, UP TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS, FOLLOWED BY RAPID WEAKENING
    
96. THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER
    
97. PEAK INTENSITY IS DERIVED FROM ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS AND IS NOT
    
98. EXPLICITLY CAPTURED IN THE MODEL DATA. ADDITIONALLY, IF THE SYSTEM
    
99. TRACKS MORE SOUTHWARD VICE SOUTHEASTWARD AND REMAINS OVER WATER
    
100. LONGER, THE PEAK INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHER AS A RESULT. THE JTWC
     
101. FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CONSENSUS MEAN WITH MEDIUM
     
102. CONFIDENCE.
     
103. 
     
104. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
105.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
106.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
     
107. NNNN

复制代码

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析维持T3.0

TPXS12 PGTW 232049
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUANA)
B. 23/2030Z
C. 16.30S
D. 121.40E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .75 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT YIELD 3.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   23/1707Z  15.80S  121.40E  AMS2
   HUYNH

ygsj24

IDW24100
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued at 5:47 am WST on Saturday 24 January 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Luana to cross the northwest Kimberley coast today as a
category 2 system.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Broome to Kuri Bay, including Derby and adjacent inland areas.

Watch zone: Bidyadanga to Broome and adjacent inland area.

Cancelled zone: Between Kuri Bay and Mitchell Plateau.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Luana 16U at 5:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 16.1 degrees South 121.8 degrees East,
estimated to be 210 kilometres north northwest of Broome and 125 kilometres
west northwest of Cape Leveque.
Movement: east southeast at 22 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Luana has formed and is forecast to intensify to a category 2
system prior to making landfall on the northwest Kimberley coast later today.
The most likely crossing location is between north of Broome and Cockatoo
Island.

After landfall over the Dampier Peninsula, Luana may move back over the waters
of King Sound where it is forecast to maintain category 2 intensity until
making landfall again near Derby. It will weaken and be below tropical cyclone
strength during Sunday morning after moving further inland.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 140 km/h may develop near the system centre between
Beagle Bay and Cockatoo Island today as the system approaches and moves over
the coast.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are possible between Beagle Bay and
Kuri Bay from early this morning. Gales may extend south to Derby and towards
Broome this afternoon, and to adjacent inland areas overnight tonight. The risk
of the system taking a track further west is decreasing, though if it does
gales may extend from Broome to Bidyadanga later today.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible for the northwest
Kimberley district, including the coast and adjacent inland areas today.

Coastal residents within King Sound are specifically warned of the potential
for a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone passes over the Sound. Tides are
likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES
and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be higher than normal between Beagle Bay and Kuri Bay today and
LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas as the system
crosses the coast.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts
and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am AWST Saturday 24 January.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling  13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	5 am January 24	1	16.1S	121.8E	35
+6hr	11 am January 24	2	16.6S	122.5E	60
+12hr	5 pm January 24	2	17.1S	123.1E	75
+18hr	11 pm January 24	1	17.5S	123.6E	85
+24hr	5 am January 25	1	17.8S	123.8E	85
+36hr	5 pm January 25	tropical low	18.6S	123.9E	105
+48hr	5 am January 26	tropical low	19.9S	123.8E	140
+60hr	5 pm January 26	tropical low	21.5S	123.7E	155
+72hr	5 am January 27	tropical low	23.2S	124.1E	180

pocketbox

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0111 UTC 24/01/2026
Name: Tropical Cyclone Luana
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.4S
Longitude: 122.1E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: southeast (132 deg)
Speed of Movement: 10 knots (19 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots (120 km/h)
Central Pressure: 991 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (40 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  24/0600: 17.0S 122.9E:     030 (055):  050  (095):  987
+12:  24/1200: 17.3S 123.4E:     035 (070):  045  (085):  990
+18:  24/1800: 17.7S 123.8E:     045 (080):  040  (075):  993
+24:  25/0000: 18.0S 123.9E:     045 (085):  035  (065):  995
+36:  25/1200: 18.9S 123.9E:     065 (115):  030  (055):  997
+48:  26/0000: 20.2S 123.7E:     075 (145):  025  (045):  998
+60:  26/1200: 22.0S 123.8E:     085 (160):  025  (045):  999
+72:  27/0000: 23.6S 124.2E:     105 (190):  025  (045):  999
+96:  28/0000:             :              :            :     
+120: 29/0000:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
The satellite signature of Tropical Cyclone Luana is remaining broadly steady
as it approaches the Kimberley coast, with curved convective banding persisting
to the west of the centre. The loosely organised centre is now visible on
Broome radar.

Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.7 wrap, yielding DT of
3.0. MET is 3.5 based on a 24 hour D trend, and PAT is adjusted to 3.0. Final T
and CI 3.0. Objective guidance at 2300 UTC was (1 min mean) ADT 51 kn, AiDT 43
kn, DPRINT 52kn, DMINT (2118 UTC) 44 kn, MW sounders (1717 UTC) 57 kn, SATCON
(1900 UTC) 55 kn. Intensity set at 45 knots based on subjective Dvorak and
broadly consistent with objective aids. No observation sites have recently
reported gales.

The environment is favourable for further development. Sea surface temperatures
are around 30 - 31  C. The system is located under a broad deep layer shear
minimum with upper outflow evident on both the poleward and equatorward sides.
Remaining time over water (~ 3 hours) will be the limiting factor for further
intensification and thus landfall intensity is capped at 50 knots. However, the
system may maintain intensity for some time after landfall due to proximity to
the waters of King Sound. Weakening below TC strength is not forecast until
Sunday when the system is inland of Derby.

Motion continues to be to the southeast under the influence of a mid-level
trough to the southwest. This is expected to continue for another 24 hours or
so. Beyond that, a weak mid-level ridge will form the east and take the remnant
low south over inland WA.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/0730 UTC.

---

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Beagle Bay and Cockatoo Island, including Derby, are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
Issued at 8:57 am WST on Saturday 24 January 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Luana to cross the northwest Kimberley coast today as a category 2 system.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Broome to Kuri Bay, including Derby and adjacent inland areas.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
Bidyadanga to Broome and adjacent inland areas.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Luana 16U at 8:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 16.4 degrees South 122.1 degrees East, estimated to be 90 kilometres west of Cape Leveque and 175 kilometres north of Broome.

Movement: southeast at 19 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Luana is approaching the Dampier Peninsula on the northwest Kimberley coast with impacts expected to commence imminently. It is currently a category 1 system but is forecast to strengthen to category 2 just prior to crossing the coast around midday today, most likely to the southwest of Cape Leveque and well north of Broome.

After landfall over the Dampier Peninsula, Luana may remain near or move back over the waters of King Sound, and may maintain category 2 intensity until it is close to Derby tonight. It will weaken and be below tropical cyclone strength during Sunday morning after moving further inland.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 130 km/h may develop near the system centre between Beagle Bay and Cockatoo Island today as the system approaches and moves over the coast. These DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS may extend to Derby tonight if the system maintains strength longer than forecast.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are expected to develop between Beagle Bay and Kuri Bay during the next few hours. Gales may extend south to Derby and Broome this afternoon, and to adjacent inland areas overnight tonight.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible for the northwest Kimberley district, including the coast and adjacent inland areas today.

Coastal residents within King Sound are specifically warned of the potential for a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone passes close to the Sound. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be higher than normal between Beagle Bay and Kuri Bay today and LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas as the system crosses the coast.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for peripheral areas in the Kimberley.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm AWST Saturday 24 January.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 am January 24	1	16.4S	122.1E	30
+6hr	2 pm January 24	2	17.0S	122.9E	55
+12hr	8 pm January 24	1	17.3S	123.4E	70
+18hr	2 am January 25	1	17.7S	123.8E	80
+24hr	8 am January 25	tropical low	18.0S	123.9E	85
+36hr	8 pm January 25	tropical low	18.9S	123.9E	115
+48hr	8 am January 26	tropical low	20.2S	123.7E	145
+60hr	8 pm January 26	tropical low	22.0S	123.8E	160
+72hr	8 am January 27	tropical low	23.6S	124.2E	190

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐润杰、刘涛  签发：向纯怡  2026 年 01 月 24 日 10 时
“卢安娜”在澳大利亚西北部海域生成

时  间: 24日08时（北京时）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “卢安娜”，LUANA

中心位置: 南纬16.4度，东经122.1度

强度等级: 一级热带气旋

最大风力: 9级，23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压: 991百帕

参考位置: 距离勒韦克角偏西方向约90公里

变化过程: “卢安娜”于昨夜在澳大利亚西北部海域生成

预报结论: “卢安娜”将以每小时19公里左右的速度向东南方向移动，强度缓慢增强。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年1月24日08时00分）

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐润杰、刘涛  签发：向纯怡  2026 年 01 月 24 日 10 时
“卢安娜”在澳大利亚西北部海域生成

时  间: 24日08时（北京时）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “卢安娜”，LUANA

中心位置: 南纬16.4度，东经122.1度

强度等级: 一级热带气旋

最大风力: 9级，23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压: 991百帕

参考位置: 距离勒韦克角偏西方向约90公里

变化过程: “卢安娜”于昨夜在澳大利亚西北部海域生成

预报结论: 预计，“卢安娜”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向东南方向移动，将在今天（24日）中午前后登陆前加强为二级气旋，最大可能在澳大利亚西北部丹皮尔半岛（Dampier Peninsula）附近沿海登陆。登陆后，“卢安娜”将继续向东南方向移动，强度缓慢减弱。受其影响，西澳大利亚州北部的金伯利亚地区沿海将有9-10级风，阵风11-13级，西北金伯利地区沿海及内陆地区可能出现强降雨。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年1月24日08时00分）