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本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2025-11-20 23:00 编辑
WTXS31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 10.1S 133.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1S 133.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 10.5S 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 11.1S 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 11.8S 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 12.4S 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 13.5S 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.3S 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 15.1S 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 133.2E.
20NOV25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 202
NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 201200Z IS
987 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.//
NNNN
- WDXS31 PGTW 201500
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR
- 010//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 10.1S 133.3E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 202 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 01 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
- CYCLONE 05S (FINA) CONTINUING TO BE IMPACTED BY NORTHEASTERLY
- SHEAR, CAUSING THE DEEP CONVECTION TO BE DISPLACED TO THE
- SOUTHWEST. STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION THAT ARE CLOSER TO THE
- PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAVE
- RE-EMERGED AROUND 201100Z. A 200941Z WSFM 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
- REVEALED A COMPACT MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE THAT IS RAGGED ALONG THE
- EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 200929Z RCM-3 SAR WIND SPEED IMAGE REVEALED A
- RING OF 50-55 KTS WITH A VMAX OF 57 KTS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
- THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BOTH PLACED WITH MEDIUM
- CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RCM-3 SAR IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
- INDICATES THAT 05S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
- CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
- NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND WARM
- (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 200929Z RCM-3 SAR DATA
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING PATTERN WITH A NEAR
- EQUATORIAL RIDGE NORTH OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA AND A BUILDING
- SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
- ADRM: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- CIMSS ADT: 74 KTS AT 201200Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 65 KTS AT 201200Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 39 KTS AT 200944Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 39 KTS AT 201200Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
- VWS: 15-20 KTS
- SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
- OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING
- SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING
- SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THIS
- SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
- FORECAST PERIOD. AN INITIAL LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND
- TAU 24, NEAR THE GARIG GUNAK BARLU NATIONAL PARK. THE SYSTEM WILL
- THEN CROSS THE VAN DIEMEN GULF WITH A SECOND LANDFALL NEAR DARWIN
- AS 05S SKIRTS THE COAST. 05S IS THEN EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN
- PORTION OF THE BONAPARTE GULF NEAR TAU 72 BEFORE MAKING A THIRD
- LANDFALL EAST OF KALUMBURU NEAR TAU 96. REGARDING INTENSITY, 05S IS
- FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE
- NORTHEASTERLY PRESSURE AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE VORTEX.
- AFTER TAU 12, 05S IS FORECAST TO MARGINALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48
- AS THE SHEAR RELAXES A BIT AND THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY
- ALIGNED. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INHIBIT A
- QUICKER INTENSIFICATION TREND THROUGH THE TIMING OF LANDFALL IN
- DARWIN. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM SKIRTS THE COAST IS
- ANTICIPATED FROM TAU 48-60. ONCE THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE BONAPARTE
- GULF, 05S WILL ONCE AGAIN ENCOUNTER INCREASED SHEAR (20-25 KTS), THIS
- TIME FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHEAR, ALONG WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT,
- WILL INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE TIMING OF THE THIRD
- LANDFALL EVENT. AFTER THE THIRD LANDFALL, TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL
- CAUSE 05S TO QUICKLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
- PERIOD. 05S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND NEAR TAU 120 AS THE
- REMNANT VORTEX CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
- AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GALWEM, WHICH TRACK
- THE VORTEX MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE.
- DISCOUNTING GALWEM, THERE IS A 40 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48,
- NEAR THE TIMING OF CPA TO DARWIN, AND A 70 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT
- TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE, PARTICULARLY
- INDIVIDUAL GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE BULK OF GUIDANCE AGREES ON
- A TRACK INLAND AFTER TAU 96, HOWEVER, THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
- TRACKER TAKES THE SYSTEM WESTWARD, AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE JTWC
- TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH
- TAU 72 AND THEN CLOSER TO THE GDM AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS THROUGH
- TAU 120. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT
- BESIDES ONE SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER, HAFS-A. HAFS-A RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES
- THE SYSTEM FROM TAU 36 TO TAU 72, REACHING AN UNLIKELY PEAK OF
- AROUND 130 KTS AT TAU 72. NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARE
- EXPECTED TO DISALLOW THIS TYPE OF INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE THIRD
- LANDFALL EVENT. DISCOUNTING HAFS-A, MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A
- STEADY INTENSITY OR MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72 AND
- THEN WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED
- SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
- NNNN
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楼主: 大水台6
发表于 2025-11-20 20:40
