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JTWC/28W/#05/10-05 12Z Prognostic Reasoning
本帖最后由 yhh 于 2025-10-5 23:20 编辑
WDPN32 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W (HALONG) WARNING NR
005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 25.2N 142.4E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 64 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO TO
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
STORM 28W (HALONG) WITH DEEP BURSTS OF CONVECTION OBSCURING THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND FRAGMENTED BANDING ALONG
THE EASTERN BOUNDARY. A COMBINATION OF THE 051044Z METOP-B AND
051132Z METOP-C ASCAT IMAGES REVEALED 40-45 KTS CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION WITH A MUCH MORE SYMMETRIC
WIND FIELD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ASCAT PASS 12 HOURS AGO. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY, POSITION, AND WIND RADII ARE ALL ASSESSED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE TIMELY ASCAT IMAGES. PGTW AND KNES FIXES
OF T3.0 FURTHER SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 28W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A COMBINATION OF 051044Z AND 051132Z
ASCAT PASSES
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING PATTERN WITH
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO BOTH THE EAST AND WEST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 051200Z
CIMSS AIDT: 43 KTS AT 051200Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 48 KTS AT 051200Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: 28W IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TRACK SPEEDS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND BEGIN TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST THROUGH
TAU 48. AROUND TAU 48, 28W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TURNING NORTHWARD
AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. NEAR TAU 72, A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. TRACK SPEEDS WILL THEN INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS NOT EXPECTED TO START WITHIN THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL. THERE IS STILL SOME
SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE RECURVE,
BUT MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON A RECURVE OCCURRING FAR
EAST OF THE NORTHERN RYUKYU ISLANDS. REGARDING INTENSITY, 28W IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY FROM TAU 12 (55 KTS) TO TAU 48 (100
KTS). A PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 72, AND IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 120 KTS. THE VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO BE
COMPLETELY ALIGNED IN AROUND 12 HOURS AND THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER IMPROVE, AIDING IN THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI). AFTER TAU 72, WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY INCREASE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN
POOR AGREEMENT, THOUGH IT IS CERTAINLY GETTING BETTER. THE PRIMARY
OUTLIERS ARE NOW NAVGEM AND UKMET. THESE MODELS SHOW A LATER, AND
SHALLOWER RECURVE, INTERACTING WITH THE NORTHERN RYUKYU ISLANDS AND
SOUTHERN KYUSHU. THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE HAS AN EARLIER RECURVE,
BEGINNING FAR SOUTHEAST OF KYUSHU. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAS SHIFTED
CONSIDERABLY, NOW SHOWING ALL MEMBERS RECURVING EAST OF OKINAWA.
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 IS NOW AROUND 500 NM, BUT WITHOUT
NAVGEM AND UKMET, IT DECREASES TO 350 NM. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
IS PLACED IN LINE WITH THE BULK OF RELIABLE GUIDANCE WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. PEAK INTENSITIES RANGE FROM 90 KTS
(GFS) TO 135 KTS (COAMPS-TC). THE HAFS-A PEAK HAS RAISED TO AROUND
130 KTS, MUCH HIGHER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS RUN. THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS, CLOSER TO HAFS-A
AND COAMPS-TC WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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楼主: ygsj24
发表于 2025-10-5 22:10
