背风群岛以北五级飓风“温贝托”(08L.Humberto) - 西北行进，风眼开出，快速增强 - NHC:140KT

pocketbox

WTNT43 KNHC 281437
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082025
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 28 2025

Humberto has weakened slightly, likely the result of an ongoing
eyewall replacement cycle, but it remains a powerful hurricane. The
initial intensity of 130 kt is based primarily on a blend of Final-T
and CI Dvorak values from TAFB. That value is on the high end of the
various objective estimates, but the 1210 UTC UW-CIMSS DPRINT Vmax
value was also 130 kt. For the next day or two, Humberto's intensity
will likely be determined largely by internal dynamics like
additional eyewall replacement cycles, and by how large of an eye it
develops. GPM microwave data from earlier this morning showed the
presence of a very large outer ring of deep convection around
Humberto's center. If that larger ring ultimately replaces
Humberto's eyewall, it could result in the hurricane having a lower
intensity in the short term than currently forecast, but a rapidly
larger extent of hurricane-force winds.

Consequently, the main concern for Humberto going forward is not how
strong it will be, but how large. In addition to the expected
expansion of Humberto's hurricane-force inner core, the
tropical-storm-force wind radii are also expected to expand quickly
in the next few days. As a result of this, even though the core of
Humberto is forecast to move west and then north of Bermuda,
tropical-storm-force impacts appear increasingly likely and tropical
storm watches could be required there later today. Humberto is also
expected to produce swells that affect most of the western Atlantic,
with dangerous surf conditions starting along the U.S. East Coast on
Monday.

Humberto's initial motion hasn't changed, and the track forecast
reasoning is very similar to previous forecasts. Humberto should
move around the southwest periphery of the subtropical ridge for
the next couple of days, moving west of Bermuda on Tuesday. The
hurricane should then accelerate east-northeastward as it becomes
post-tropical. Humberto's winds should expand further as its
intensity gradually decreases through the middle of the week, but it
is forecast to remain a very powerful hurricane-force low, even
after it becomes post-tropical.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is an increasing risk of tropical-storm-force winds
affecting Bermuda by late Tuesday. Interests there should monitor
the progress of Humberto and watches could be issued later today.

2. Dangerous marine conditions, including high surf and
life-threatening rip currents, are affecting beaches of the northern
Caribbean, Bahamas, and Bermuda. The dangerous surf conditions are
expected to begin affecting the U.S. East Coast on Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 24.6N  64.3W  130 KT 150 MPH
12H  29/0000Z 25.7N  65.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
24H  29/1200Z 27.3N  67.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
36H  30/0000Z 29.3N  68.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
48H  30/1200Z 31.6N  69.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
60H  01/0000Z 33.7N  68.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
72H  01/1200Z 35.6N  65.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
96H  02/1200Z 39.7N  51.0W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

ygsj24

000
WTNT43 KNHC 282039
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082025
500 PM AST Sun Sep 28 2025

Humberto continues to have a small inner core, surrounded by a much
larger ring of deep convection. This structure is evident in visible
and IR satellite imagery, in which a moat of warmer cloud tops
outside of the inner eyewall has been noted at times during day.
This structure has likely caused Humberto's intensity to decrease
today, and the 125-kt intensity estimate is on the high end of
recent objective and subjective estimates. However, this has also
caused the wind field to increase, which was confirmed by ASCAT data
that arrived shortly after the issuance of the previous advisory. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Humberto this evening, which should provide more
information about the strength and structure of the hurricane.

Overall, no significant changes were made to the NHC track,
intensity, or radii forecasts for Humberto. The hurricane should
move west and then north of Bermuda over the next few days while it
slowly weakens but grows in size. Confidence in the forecast through
that period is fairly high, with the model spread being smaller than
normal. The forecast uncertainty is higher after that, but Humberto
is subsequently expected to become a post-tropical frontal low
between 72 and 96 h. Regardless of its exact strength or forward
speed, Humberto will be a strong and large hurricane-strength low
throughout the forecast period, even as its surface circulation will
likely become ill defined by the end of the week. The NHC forecast
is close to a blend of the multi-model consensus and the Google
DeepMind Ensemble Mean at all times.

The primary concerns for Humberto continue to be its production of
dangerous surf which will affect Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast
for the next several days, and the growth of its wind field, which
could result in tropical-storm-force winds affecting Bermuda
by late Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds could begin to affect Bermuda by late
Tuesday. The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Bermuda. Interests there should continue to monitor the
progress of Humberto.

2. Dangerous marine conditions, including high surf and
life-threatening rip currents, are affecting beaches of the northern
Caribbean, Bahamas, and Bermuda. The dangerous surf conditions are
expected to begin affecting the U.S. East Coast on Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 25.5N  65.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
12H  29/0600Z 26.8N  66.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
24H  29/1800Z 28.7N  67.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
36H  30/0600Z 30.8N  68.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
48H  30/1800Z 33.3N  68.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
60H  01/0600Z 35.2N  67.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
72H  01/1800Z 36.4N  62.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  02/1800Z 41.5N  47.0W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

hei

差不多完成眼牆置換了吧


PS: 昨日SAR

ygsj24

855
WTNT43 KNHC 290243
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082025
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 28 2025

Humberto remains a powerful category 4 hurricane over the
subtropical western Atlantic.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have
been investigating Humberto this evening and found that the major
hurricane has concentric eyewalls, with a double wind maximum noted
in all quadrants.  Based on the flight-level wind data, the initial
intensity is set at 120 kt. Dropsonde data from the aircraft suggest
that the minimum pressure is quite low at 928 mb.

Humberto is moving northwestward at 12 kt in the flow on the
south-southwest side of a subtropical high.  The major hurricane is
expected to gradually turn to the north by late Monday and Tuesday
as the high shifts to the east and weakens.  After that, a trough is
expected to amplify over the north Atlantic, and that should cause
Humberto to turn sharply and accelerate east-northeastward Tuesday
night and Wednesday.  The models are in good agreement, and only
minor changes were made to the previous track forecast.  While there
is high confidence that the core of Humberto will miss Bermuda,
there is a possibility of tropical-storm-force winds occurring there
late Tuesday and Wednesday in Humberto's outer bands.

The intensity of Humberto will likely fluctuate over the next 12 to
24 hours, but gradual weakening is expected after that due to
increasing shear and decreasing SSTs.  Extratropical transition is
now forecast to be complete by 72 hours when the system is expected
to merge with the aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough and
develop frontal features.  The NHC intensity forecast is near the
middle of the guidance envelope.  The hurricane is expected to grow
in size as it gains latitude during the next few days, which will
result in a large area of rough seas. See Key Messages below for
more information.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds could begin to affect Bermuda by late
Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch is in effect for the island.
Interests there should continue to monitor the progress of Humberto.

2. Dangerous marine conditions, including high surf and
life-threatening rip currents, are affecting beaches of the northern
Caribbean, Bahamas, and Bermuda. The dangerous surf conditions are
expected to begin affecting much of the east coast of the U.S. on
Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 26.2N  66.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
12H  29/1200Z 27.5N  67.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
24H  30/0000Z 29.5N  68.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
36H  30/1200Z 31.9N  68.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
48H  01/0000Z 34.2N  68.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
60H  01/1200Z 35.9N  64.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
72H  02/0000Z 37.3N  58.7W   85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  03/0000Z 43.5N  41.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐立、张增海  签发：柳龙生  2025 年 09 月 29 日 10 时
“温贝托”向西北方向移动

时        间:   29日08时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    北大西洋

命        名:    “温贝托”，HUMBERTO

中心位置:    西经65.8度，北纬25.8度

强度等级:    四级飓风

最大风力:    17级以上，64米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级

中心气压:    937百帕

参考位置:    距离北大西洋开曼群岛西北方向约810公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“温贝托”强度维持17级以上

预报结论:   “温贝托”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向西北方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年9月29日08时00分）

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐立、张增海  签发：柳龙生  2025 年 09 月 29 日 18 时
“温贝托”向西北方向移动

时        间:   29日14时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    北大西洋

命        名:    “温贝托”，HUMBERTO

中心位置:    西经66.6度，北纬26.7度

强度等级:    四级飓风

最大风力:    17级，59米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级

中心气压:    928百帕

参考位置:    距离北大西洋百慕大群岛西南方向约630公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“温贝托”强度由17级以上减弱为17级

预报结论:   “温贝托”将以每小时22公里左右的速度向西北方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年9月29日14时00分）

pocketbox

WTNT43 KNHC 290854
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082025
500 AM AST Mon Sep 29 2025

Humberto has gone through some inner-core structural changes.
Earlier aircraft data indicated that the hurricane had a double
eyewall structure, but a 29/0546 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass indicates
that the inner eyewall is starting to get overtaken by the outer
eyewall.  Given the the apparent continued weakening of the inner
eyewall as inferred from GOES-19 imagery since the time of the
microwave pass, Humberto's maximum sustained winds are probably near
the lower end of the recent objective and subjective estimates, so
the initial intensity is nudged downward slightly to 115 kt.  
Another Air Force plane will be in Humberto in a few hours to better
assess the intensity.

Humberto is still moving northwestward, or 320 degrees at 12 kt in
the flow on the south-southwest side of a subtropical high.  The
major hurricane is expected to gradually turn to the north over the
next 24 hours as the high shifts to the east and weakens.  After
that, a trough is expected to amplify over the north Atlantic, and
that should cause Humberto to turn sharply and accelerate
east-northeastward Tuesday night and Wednesday.  The NHC forecast is
similar to the previous one through 24 h, but then has been shifted
slightly to the northwest, or left, of the previous forecast after
that time, close to the latest model consensus.  Confidence in the
track forecast is high through 48 h.  While there is high confidence
that the core of Humberto will miss Bermuda, there is a possibility
of tropical-storm-force winds occurring there late Tuesday and
Wednesday in Humberto's outer bands.

The intensity of Humberto will likely fluctuate over the next 12 h
or so, but gradual weakening is expected after that due to
increasing shear and decreasing SSTs.  Extratropical transition is
expected to be complete in 60-72 hours when the system is forecast
to merge with the aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough and
develop frontal features.  The NHC intensity forecast is between the
middle and higher end of the guidance envelope.  The hurricane is
expected to grow in size as it gains latitude during the next few
days, which will result in a large area of rough seas.  See Key
Messages below for more information.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds could begin to affect Bermuda by late
Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch is in effect for the island.
Interests there should continue to monitor the progress of Humberto.

2. Dangerous marine conditions, including high surf and
life-threatening rip currents, are affecting beaches of the northern
Caribbean, Bahamas, and Bermuda. The dangerous surf conditions are
expected to begin affecting much of the east coast of the U.S.
today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 27.2N  66.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
12H  29/1800Z 28.6N  68.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
24H  30/0600Z 30.9N  68.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  30/1800Z 33.3N  68.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
48H  01/0600Z 35.4N  66.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
60H  01/1800Z 36.9N  61.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  02/0600Z 39.0N  54.5W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen

pocketbox

WTNT43 KNHC 291441
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082025
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 29 2025

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found Humberto has
strengthened this morning. The aircraft depicted that the system has
completed an eyewall replacement cycle, with the outer eyewall as
depicted on earlier microwave imagery now dominant, and the old
inner eyewall has collapsed. The aircraft however did depict that
the eyewall is open on the southwest side which is likely due to the
impacts of increasing wind shear. Maximum flight level winds in the
northeast quadrant were 138 kt, which supported the increased
intensity to 125 kt at the intermediate advisory. Using the latest
hurricane hunter and scatterometer wind data, the wind radii have
been slightly adjusted and the intensity is held at 125 kt for this
advisory.

Humberto is moving northwestward at an estimated motion of 325/ 11
kt, along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level subtropical
ridge. A gradual turn to the north then northeast over the next day
or so is anticipated as the system rounds the western periphery of
the ridge, and the NHC forecast has been shifted slightly to the
left closer to the consensus aids in the short term. The system will
then begin to move northeast to east-northeastward as the system is
picked up by a trough moving into the north Atlantic. The NHC
forecast is similar to the previous through the end of the forecast
period, with a slight nudge towards the latest consensus aids.

Some fluctuations in intensity are possible over the next 12 h or
so. Thereafter, increasing wind shear and cooling sea surface
temperatures should induce a weakening trend. The wind shear will
also cause Humberto become quite asymmetric with most of the
convection displaced to the eastern side of the circulation. In
about 60 h, global models depict that the system should merge with
the previously mentioned trough digging across the north Atlantic
and develop frontal features. As the system becomes extratropical
across the north Atlantic, the wind field is anticipated to grow in
size. The latest NHC intensity forecast lies on the higher end of
the guidance envelope given the latest increase in intensity, and
then shows weakening throughout the period. By 96h, the system is
expected to dissipate and merge within the larger trough.

Along the forecast track, Humberto is expected to move to the west
and north of Bermuda, although there is a possibility of
tropical-storm-force winds occuring over the island late Tuesday and
Wednesday within outer rainbands.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds could begin to affect Bermuda by late
Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch is in effect for the island.
Interests there should continue to monitor the progress of Humberto.

2. Dangerous marine conditions, including high surf and
life-threatening rip currents, are affecting beaches of the northern
Caribbean, Bahamas, and Bermuda. The dangerous surf conditions are
expected to begin affecting much of the east coast of the U.S.
today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 28.0N  67.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
12H  30/0000Z 29.6N  68.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
24H  30/1200Z 32.1N  69.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  01/0000Z 34.4N  67.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
48H  01/1200Z 36.1N  64.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
60H  02/0000Z 37.4N  58.5W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  02/1200Z 40.6N  49.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

ygsj24

000
WTNT33 KNHC 291738
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082025
200 PM AST Mon Sep 29 2025

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS FOR
BERMUDA AND MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST THIS WEEK...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 67.9W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. This
Tropical Storm Watch may be replaced with a Hurricane Watch later
today due to Imelda.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 67.9 West. Humberto is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A gradual
turn towards the north is expected over the next day or so. The
hurricane is then forecast to turn and accelerate east-northeastward
by late Tuesday or early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Humberto will pass west, and then north of Bermuda on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Humberto is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast after that, but
Humberto is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane into
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Humberto can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

SURF:  Swells generated by Humberto will continue to affect portions
of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and Bermuda through much of this week. Swells from Humberto will
also affect the U.S. East Coast beginning today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Humberto is expected to bring rainfall of 1 to
2 inches – 25 to 50 mm – to Bermuda Monday night through Tuesday


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

ygsj24

000
WTNT43 KNHC 292053
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082025
500 PM AST Mon Sep 29 2025

After some brief re-intensification this morning, satellite imagery
depicts that Humberto has started to feel the impacts of wind shear.
The ring of deep convection has become a little more broken on
infrared imagery, particularly on the western side of the system.
Earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft data depicted that the eyewall was
open on the southwest side, and recent microwave imagery shows that
the eyewall may be completely open on the western side. As the
previous aircraft was departing, the pressure had come up a couple
millibars which also suggests the system may have begun to weaken,
and thus that trend is followed in this advisory.  Using the latest
satellite trends, and a combination of intensity estimates with
previous aircraft data, the intensity is lowered to 120 kt for this
advisory. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system late this evening to help
evaluate the intensity and structure of the system.

Humberto is moving north-northwestward at an estimated motion of
330/11 kt. The system should continue to round the western
periphery of the mid-level ridge and gradually turn to the north
then northeast over the next day or so. A trough moving into the
northern Atlantic will then pick up the system, and cause Humberto
to accelerate to the northeast to east-northeast over the next
several days. There is slightly more along-track spread with the
forward speed towards the end of the forecast period in the latest
guidance envelope. The NHC track forecast is near the previous one,
however slightly slower at long range, and lies near the consensus
track aids.

A weakening trend has started with Humberto, as wind shear appears
to have started to disrupt the circulation. Wind shear is forecast
to continue increasing over the system, and sea surface temperatures
will also cool along the forecast track. Model simulated IR images
depicts that Humberto will become more asymmetric with most of the
convection displaced to the eastern side of the circulation due to
the shear. In about 60 h, both the GFS and ECMWF guidance depict
that the system should merge with the previously mentioned trough
digging across the north Atlantic and develop frontal features. As
the system becomes extratropical across the north Atlantic, the wind
field is anticipated to grow in size. The latest NHC intensity
forecast lies on the higher end of the guidance envelope given the
latest increase in intensity, and then shows weakening throughout
the period. By 96h, the system is expected to dissipate and merge
within the larger trough.

Along the forecast track, Humberto is expected to move to the west
and north of Bermuda, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible
within outer rainbands late Tuesday and Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible within outer
rainbands of Humberto. The Tropical Storm Watch has been replaced
with a Hurricane Watch, due to the forecast of Imelda. Please follow
local updates from Bermuda Weather Service for impacts from
Humberto.

2. Dangerous marine conditions, including high surf and
life-threatening rip currents, are affecting beaches of the northern
Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the east coast of the
United States.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 29.1N  68.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
12H  30/0600Z 30.8N  68.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
24H  30/1800Z 33.4N  68.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
36H  01/0600Z 35.4N  66.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
48H  01/1800Z 36.8N  61.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
60H  02/0600Z 38.4N  54.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  02/1800Z 41.5N  46.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly