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发表于 2025-9-24 17:45
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JTWC/26W/#04/09-24 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (BUALOI) WARNING NR
004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 10.0N 131.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 690 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CONTINUOUSLY
ORGANIZING SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W
(BUALOI). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), GOOD
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON PARTIALLY EXPOSED OUTER REGIONS OF LOW-
LEVEL CLOUDS OBSERVED WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN AND WESTERN SECTORS OF
THE SYSTEM, IN CONJUNCTION WITH RECENT CENTRAL CONVECTIVE BURST. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON INCREASING AGENCY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED
BELOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 240540Z
CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 240540Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 39 KTS AT 240740Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 26W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, UNDER THE
PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF A STR TO THE NORTH. LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER TAU
120, HOWEVER NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS DIVERGING FROM THE
CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 72, SO THE EXACT TIMELINE OF THAT INTERACTION
IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY,
TS 26W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AS IT APPROACHES PHILIPPINES. AFTER THAT, A BENEFICIAL IN REGARD TO
THE OUTFLOW, UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD
RESULTING IN DISAPPEARING POLEWARD CHANNEL. SIMULTANEOUSLY, BUILDING
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO INTRODUCE INCREASED SHEAR ON TS 26W,
WHICH COMBINED WITH FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF PASSAGE OVER LAND, WILL
RESULT IN A BRIEF WEAKENING TREND. AFTER TS BUALOI RE-EMERGES OVER
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, WEST OF PHILIPPINES, IT IS EXPECTED TO YET AGAIN
BEGIN INTENSIFYING DUE TO IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED MAINLY
BY DECREASING VWS AND WARM SSTS.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT INITIALLY, AS WITNESSED BY A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 75 NM,
AS TS 26W APPROACHES PHILIPPINES. CONSENSUS DECREASES NEAR TAU 72,
HOWEVER MAJORITY OF THE MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH
LANDFALL SPREAD BETWEEN DA NANG AND HANOI, VIETNAM. NAVGEM AND JGSM
ARE THE MAIN OUTLIERS PROJECTING A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN DRIVEN
BY THE STR POSITIONING FURTHER EAST. THEREFORE LONG-TERM TRACK
FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, WHILE BEING LAID CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, NEAR THE MAIN GROUPING OF THE GUIDANCE.
INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO CHALLENGING, PARTICULARLY FROM TAU
36 AND FORWARD. HOWEVER, NEARLY ALL MODELS SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION
TO A PEAK OF 50-65 KTS NEAR TAU 36, FOLLOWED BY BRIEF WEAKENING AND
RE-INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK NEAR 70 KTS AROUND TAU 96. MAJOR
OUTLIERS ARE NAVGEM-DRIVEN AND GFS-DRIVEN COAMPS-TC, WHICH BOTH
PREDICT PEAK SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE CONSENSUS. JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS LAID WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND LOW
AFTERWARDS, REFLECTING THE LONG-TERM INTENSITY ASSESSMENT
UNCERTAINTY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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楼主: ygsj24
发表于 2025-9-24 17:32
